WI Władysław goes Orthodox, rather than Catholic?

I think that during the medieval era Poles had some interest in Russian lands but they were limited to Bug river-basin. I think that without the union with Lithuania Polish Kingdom would want to retain just western parts of Halych-Volodimir Principality (claiming the Grody Czerwieńskie and Boleslaw Troidenovich/Yuri II legacy) and concentrate main efforts in Silesia and Pomerania.
But I may be biased here.

Yeah, and Poland could end up enroaching towards the lands of the HRE. Also, how would a Russo-Lithuanian union have an affect on countries, say Livonia and Sweden?
 
My knowledge of Russian history is rather patchy, but I am under impression that there was a long standing alliance between Moscow and Novgorod against Lithuania and Twer. In proposed timeline there would be three Russian cores: Novgorod, Moscow and Lithuania which would have similar geopolitical situation as Polotsk Principality. For orthodox Lithuania natural direction of expansion would be Dvina/Daugava basin toward Livonian lands and I think that in this case both Moscow and Novgorod would give all possible assistance to Jogaila and his descendants.
Sweden is only in Novgorod's sphere of interest (conflicts of Finland and Karelia) so the history of both wouldn't really divert from OTL for about 150 years I think. Well, the less power Teutonic Order and Livonian Order possess the better for Sweden. I thint that more pressure put on Livonian Order from Lithuania and less Lithuanian assistance to Poland would mean much earlier collapse of Livonian Order and longer life of Teutonic Order which would try to establish itself on whole Pomerania. There was a time when TO possessed the New March and almost cut away Pomerania from Poland.
 

MSZ

Banned
One important thing would be that a personal union between Lithuania and Muscovy doesn't immedietly mean that it will be succesfull - you can't simply assume that it would lead to a "Muscovy is stronger" or "Lithuania is stronger" scenario. There would be internal conflict between the two states which would have to be dealt with - do remember that it took often took centuries for states to merge their personal union's to real one's (the PLC being and obvious example here). It may very well be that such the two states would descent into civil war, or become a target of their neighbours - Poland, Sweden, Turkey, Livonian Order even. And there is Novogorod to be wary of.

On the other end - Habsburg Poland would indeed be intresting. Does anyone know what was the status of the various Silesians Duchies at the time? How many piasts were there? I imagine the Habsburgs could try to legitimize their claims to the polish throne by having issues of Jadwiga and Wilhelm married to those various dukes, in Pommerania as well. Also, IIRC while Silesia was out of polish control at the time, according to feudal law at least some of them were part of the "Crown Kingdom of Poland" and only legally surendered to the HRE during the First Congress of Vienna. So how much could Poland realistically expand westwards? And could it be possible for it to become a part of the HRE the same way the Kingdom of Bohemia was - with election rights, broad autonomy, etc.?
 
One important thing would be that a personal union between Lithuania and Muscovy doesn't immedietly mean that it will be succesfull - you can't simply assume that it would lead to a "Muscovy is stronger" or "Lithuania is stronger" scenario. There would be internal conflict between the two states which would have to be dealt with - do remember that it took often took centuries for states to merge their personal union's to real one's (the PLC being and obvious example here). It may very well be that such the two states would descent into civil war, or become a target of their neighbours - Poland, Sweden, Turkey, Livonian Order even. And there is Novogorod to be wary of.

On the other end - Habsburg Poland would indeed be intresting. Does anyone know what was the status of the various Silesians Duchies at the time? How many piasts were there? I imagine the Habsburgs could try to legitimize their claims to the polish throne by having issues of Jadwiga and Wilhelm married to those various dukes, in Pommerania as well. Also, IIRC while Silesia was out of polish control at the time, according to feudal law at least some of them were part of the "Crown Kingdom of Poland" and only legally surendered to the HRE during the First Congress of Vienna. So how much could Poland realistically expand westwards? And could it be possible for it to become a part of the HRE the same way the Kingdom of Bohemia was - with election rights, broad autonomy, etc.?

SO basically there would be a bloodletting between Muscovy and Lithuania, and that the said Union could potentially last the short amount of time, depending on how it would end. How the PLC came to being was through a series of short Unions before the Union of Lublin. I can imagine a similar Lublin Union with Muscovy and Lithuania, but there's going to be a lot of bargaining on the Muscovite side.
 
A thought-we've discussed giving 1380's Poland a king-how about depriving Muscovy of one? What POD's would give Muscovy no male heir in the 1380's, but keep a female one for Jogalia to marry?
 
A thought-we've discussed giving 1380's Poland a king-how about depriving Muscovy of one? What POD's would give Muscovy no male heir in the 1380's, but keep a female one for Jogalia to marry?

There could be the possibility of Dmitri Donskoy getting killed and leading the Golden Horde to win the battle in Kulikovo.
 

MSZ

Banned
A thought-we've discussed giving 1380's Poland a king-how about depriving Muscovy of one? What POD's would give Muscovy no male heir in the 1380's, but keep a female one for Jogalia to marry?
Difficult, seeing that not only were there plenty of russian duchies whose rulers would have better claims to the throne of Muscovy than "some baltic pagan" but also since the rulers of Muscovy usually had plenty of children of both gender. So it would take some familicide really - Muscovy being sacked by the Golden Horde and the familiy killed of wholesale for example, thus opening the way for Jogailla to become the "savior" of Ruthenia. So not only must Domsky lose at Kulikovo, the Horde must push westwards afterwards as well.
 
Difficult, seeing that not only were there plenty of russian duchies whose rulers would have better claims to the throne of Muscovy than "some baltic pagan" but also since the rulers of Muscovy usually had plenty of children of both gender. So it would take some familicide really - Muscovy being sacked by the Golden Horde and the familiy killed of wholesale for example, thus opening the way for Jogailla to become the "savior" of Ruthenia. So not only must Domsky lose at Kulikovo, the Horde must push westwards afterwards as well.

Yeah, but in order for the Horde to push westwards it also has to maintain its stability and not actually fall apart. If the Russo-Lithuanian union wouldn't work, which other country could potentially form a union with Muscovy? Or would another country be able to unify the Rus' lands?
 
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What if not union of Lithuania and Muscowy but vassalization of Muscovy and Novgorod to Lithuania? In OTL Vytautas managed to accomplish it. Jogaila was no less cunning diplomat and as an orthodox would he would be accepted as an overlord with less difficulty. Besides he could gain some popularity from fighting the catholic Knight Orders - and even more if he appeared victorious (but not enough successful to be free to do in Russia whatever he would like to).

It's certainly curious what would be Wilhelm's politic if he was Polish king. As Hapsburg he would be tempted to join the game of imperial throne - so he would probably try to fight Luxemburgs and gain some land in the empire (even by claiming old Polish Crown lands but not necessarily). The question is if he would be succesfull in using Polish Kingdom as his powerbase and succeed or would he bleed Poland dry and achieve nothing.
 
What if not union of Lithuania and Muscowy but vassalization of Muscovy and Novgorod to Lithuania? In OTL Vytautas managed to accomplish it. Jogaila was no less cunning diplomat and as an orthodox would he would be accepted as an overlord with less difficulty. Besides he could gain some popularity from fighting the catholic Knight Orders - and even more if he appeared victorious (but not enough successful to be free to do in Russia whatever he would like to).

It's certainly curious what would be Wilhelm's politic if he was Polish king. As Hapsburg he would be tempted to join the game of imperial throne - so he would probably try to fight Luxemburgs and gain some land in the empire (even by claiming old Polish Crown lands but not necessarily). The question is if he would be succesfull in using Polish Kingdom as his powerbase and succeed or would he bleed Poland dry and achieve nothing.

Vassalization of Muscovy and Novgorod to Lithuania would have to require a Lithuanian victory in a hypothetical war against the Golden Horde. As for Wilhelm's success in using the Polish kingdom, it would also depend on whether or not the HRE would have any good relations with the Teutonic Order.
 
Let's suppose such timeline:
1380 - Dimitri Donskoy defeats Mamai.
1382 - Tokhtamysh unites Golden Horde and sacks Moscow. At the same time Jogaila has Kestutis and Vytautas imprisoned, Kestutis dies in captivity.
1383 or later - Jogaila's mother Uliana of Tver talks him into marrying Sofia of Moscow, daughter of Dimitri. Jogaila of course has to convert to orthodoxy.
This forces Polish magnates to agree to marriage of Jadwiga either to Siemowit IV of Masovia (and shifting the power from Krakow to Masovia and Greater Poland) or to young Wilhelm Hapsburg who can be used as a puppet.
Late eighties - brief alliance of Poland and TO against Lithuania, Poland regains western half of Halych-Volodymir, Lithuania takes the rest, TO uses Vytautas as it's puppet to contain Samogitia. Tokhtamysh is busy fighting against Tamerlane
Early nineties - shifting of alliances: Vytautas goes to Jogaila's camp where he can gain more, Poland begins to reach for Silesian lands to complete Corona Regni Poloniae reunification which sets the kingdom against Luxemburgs. Restoration of TO-Czech Alliance
(In this case if Siemowit is the king he would ally himself with Władysław of Opole and possibly with Pomeranian Princes. If Wilhelm is the king he would ally himself with Wittelsbachs but I don't know whom would chose Władysław of Opole as an overlord.)
Late nineties - Jogaila is busy repelling Tamerlane's raids, when main force od TO is engaged against Poland (on land) and possibly Sweden and Gotland pirates (on the sea).
beginning of 15. century - Tamerlane signs truce with Jogaila and sets on Ottomans, Jogaila is free to fight against Teutonic Order, especially Livonian Branch. He can use whole russian potential. Poland either has a moment of rest or can see an opportunity to reclaim Pomerellia and Chełmno Land.
Czechs are distracted by Jan Hus controversy.
 
Let's suppose such timeline:
1380 - Dimitri Donskoy defeats Mamai.
1382 - Tokhtamysh unites Golden Horde and sacks Moscow. At the same time Jogaila has Kestutis and Vytautas imprisoned, Kestutis dies in captivity.
1383 or later - Jogaila's mother Uliana of Tver talks him into marrying Sofia of Moscow, daughter of Dimitri. Jogaila of course has to convert to orthodoxy.
This forces Polish magnates to agree to marriage of Jadwiga either to Siemowit IV of Masovia (and shifting the power from Krakow to Masovia and Greater Poland) or to young Wilhelm Hapsburg who can be used as a puppet.
Late eighties - brief alliance of Poland and TO against Lithuania, Poland regains western half of Halych-Volodymir, Lithuania takes the rest, TO uses Vytautas as it's puppet to contain Samogitia. Tokhtamysh is busy fighting against Tamerlane
Early nineties - shifting of alliances: Vytautas goes to Jogaila's camp where he can gain more, Poland begins to reach for Silesian lands to complete Corona Regni Poloniae reunification which sets the kingdom against Luxemburgs. Restoration of TO-Czech Alliance
(In this case if Siemowit is the king he would ally himself with Władysław of Opole and possibly with Pomeranian Princes. If Wilhelm is the king he would ally himself with Wittelsbachs but I don't know whom would chose Władysław of Opole as an overlord.)
Late nineties - Jogaila is busy repelling Tamerlane's raids, when main force od TO is engaged against Poland (on land) and possibly Sweden and Gotland pirates (on the sea).
beginning of 15. century - Tamerlane signs truce with Jogaila and sets on Ottomans, Jogaila is free to fight against Teutonic Order, especially Livonian Branch. He can use whole russian potential. Poland either has a moment of rest or can see an opportunity to reclaim Pomerellia and Chełmno Land.
Czechs are distracted by Jan Hus controversy.

This could work. Although would Jogaila still have a child by Sofia of Moscow or would he die childless?
 
This could work. Although would Jogaila still have a child by Sofia of Moscow or would he die childless?

It depends on Sofia. I know nothing about her. Jogaila certainly was fertile, though only his last wife gave him healthy sons. And he died in very old age by medieval standards, maybe because of his custom of drinking only spring water (he was afraid of poisoning).
 
It depends on Sofia. I know nothing about her. Jogaila certainly was fertile, though only his last wife gave him healthy sons. And he died in very old age by medieval standards, maybe because of his custom of drinking only spring water (he was afraid of poisoning).

Sofia was basically Dmitri Donskoi's sister, but there wasn't any records of her at all. And it sounds like Jogaila was one healthy fellow, by the way he takes care of his health.
 
English wikipedia claims she was Dmitri's daughter:

Sofia Dmitriyevna. Married Fyodor Olegovich, Prince of Ryazan (reigned 1402–1427).

The same is here:

http://records.ancestry.com/Sofia_Dmitrievna_Moskva_records.ashx?pid=28433003

and here:

http://www.geni.com/people/Sofia-Dmitryevna/6000000013301534812

And I found information that Dmitri had two sisters but none of them was called Sofia (one was Lyubov or Luyba the second was Maria or Anna Maria depending on source).

Maybe you have better sources. My knowledge on this subject comes from quick surfing over the internet.
 
English wikipedia claims she was Dmitri's daughter:



The same is here:

http://records.ancestry.com/Sofia_Dmitrievna_Moskva_records.ashx?pid=28433003

and here:

http://www.geni.com/people/Sofia-Dmitryevna/6000000013301534812

And I found information that Dmitri had two sisters but none of them was called Sofia (one was Lyubov or Luyba the second was Maria or Anna Maria depending on source).

Maybe you have better sources. My knowledge on this subject comes from quick surfing over the internet.

So it's either one of those sisters or Dmitri's daughter marrying Jogaila. Creepy, and I thought OTL Jogaila married an eleven year old Polish queen named Jadwiga sounds a bit strange.
 
I would gladly add some ideas but beside of Real Life concerns I need to read more about late medieval Russian principalities and politics. And about Lithuanians.
 
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