WI: VP Rumsfeld

I've found out that in 1976 and 1980, Donald Rumsfeld received one vote at the Convention(s) for Vice President. Say, in the latter case, he, rather than Bush, is picked as Reagan's running mate, what then?
 
If we assume a butterfly net is in effect, then Rumsfeld would surely win the nomination in 1988. Against Dukakis, he'd have a less moderate image, but at the same time, he wouldn't choose Quayle, so he'd likely win a similar margin in the popular vote. Something like this.

genusmap.php


Rumsfeld/[insert moderate here]: 439 EV
Dukakis/Bentsen: 99 EV

As for his presidency, I'd say Rumsfeld would do worse during the recession and I cannot see him accomplish the sheer mastery Bush was able to do with the Gulf War. Maybe he'd look more vulnerable and this would make a known force like Mario Cuomo contest the nomination in 1992; all I know for sure is that the Democrat would win.
 
If we assume a butterfly net is in effect, then Rumsfeld would surely win the nomination in 1988. Against Dukakis, he'd have a less moderate image, but at the same time, he wouldn't choose Quayle, so he'd likely win a similar margin in the popular vote. Something like this.

genusmap.php


Rumsfeld/[insert moderate here]: 439 EV
Dukakis/Bentsen: 99 EV

As for his presidency, I'd say Rumsfeld would do worse during the recession and I cannot see him accomplish the sheer mastery Bush was able to do with the Gulf War. Maybe he'd look more vulnerable and this would make a known force like Mario Cuomo contest the nomination in 1992; all I know for sure is that the Democrat would win.

Nice map!

Perhaps someone more liberal than Dole is nominated in `96
 
Nice map!

Perhaps Cuomo, rather than Dole, is nominated in `96

Cuomo was a Democrat! I can't believe he's been forgotten! :(

I was thinking Rumsfeld would be beat by any Democrat in 1992. Maybe Cuomo makes a run for it, though a case can be made he never wanted to be president at all.
 
Cuomo was a Democrat! I can't believe he's been forgotten! :(

I was thinking Rumsfeld would be beat by any Democrat in 1992. Maybe Cuomo makes a run for it, though a case can be made he never wanted to be president at all.

My mistake, I changed it to "someone liberal."

What happens to Bush Sr?
 
My mistake, I changed it to "someone liberal."

What happens to Bush Sr?

One of two things: Either he's a footnote in history remembered for beating Reagan in Iowa, or he'd make a run for it in 1996.

Yeah, I agree, someone more liberal would be picked, though Dole was perceived as moderate by many party regulars. I'd say the good economy makes it impossible for any Republican in 1996 to win.
 
One of two things: Either he's a footnote in history remembered for beating Reagan in Iowa, or he'd make a run for it in 1996.

Yeah, I agree, someone more liberal would be picked, though Dole was perceived as moderate by many party regulars. I'd say the good economy makes it impossible for any Republican in 1996 to win.

Gingrich or Bush, even McCain?
 
Gingrich or Bush, even McCain?

Gingrich is pretty conservative. Just look at all of his current statements on Islam. Not what the Republican Party would want in a nominee after the defeat of the conservative Rumsfeld.

Bush is a possibility, but I think it's too early for McCain. He could be a VP candidate in 1996 for sure though.
 
Gingrich is pretty conservative. Just look at all of his current statements on Islam. Not what the Republican Party would want in a nominee after the defeat of the conservative Rumsfeld.

Bush is a possibility, but I think it's too early for McCain. He could be a VP candidate in 1996 for sure though.

Bush-McCain: For Common Sense
 
Does the Republican Revolution happen, or would the Republicans be too against conservatives after Rumsfeld's defeat? Would Bush Jr. ever come to prominence without his father's fame?
 
Whether Rummy goes out in 1992 might depend on how he conducts his foreign policy.
If I recall FP was an advantage for Bush, but Rumsfeld could make some rather controversial decisions.

Might the Gulf War be avoided if Rummy has better relations with Saddam?
 
Does the Republican Revolution happen, or would the Republicans be too against conservatives after Rumsfeld's defeat?

Well, a moderate Republican Revolution is possible. It depends who the Democratic president is. Even IOTL, if Bill focused on recovery, Congress would not have gone red. It really depends who the Democratic nominee is and what he does in office.
 
GHW Bush would have been too old to run for President in 1996.

If he hadn't become Vice President in 1981, or received the nomination for Vice President, and stayed in politics, there would have been two possibilities for the future direction of his career. One would have been a cabinet position under Reagan, with his becoming Secretary of State likely when Haig was fired. He probably would have done much the same as Shultz in that role. The other possibility is becoming Senator from Texas, probably serving 1985-97 instead of Gramm. His children are not likely to have as many advantages entering politics, though both George and JEB could plausibly wind up as Congressmen, George W did run for Congress in 1978.

The biggest political butterfly to a Rumsfeld presidency would have been the Perot independent presidential runs. I've seen arguments that the 1992 run was done mainly due to personal animosity towards the Bushes.
 
The biggest political butterfly to a Rumsfeld presidency would have been the Perot independent presidential runs. I've seen arguments that the 1992 run was done mainly due to personal animosity towards the Bushes

Well, IOTL, Perot split an equal number of voters from both Bill Clinton and Bush Sr. I can't see it being terribly different ITTL.
 
Perhaps Perot hurts the Reps even more

That's possible.

Another thought is that Perot and Jerry Brown had the exact same views on pretty much every issue. Quite a bit of Brown's support went to Perot. If Cuomo were the Democratic nominee, I can't imagine liberals coelescing around Brown. That would hurt Perot further.
 
1988: Vice President Rumsfeld defeats Governor Dukakis, garner 443 electoral votes

1989: Communist governments in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, East Germany, Czechoslovakia all fall

1990: Elections are held in Poland. Iraq invades Kuwait.

1991: A US-led Coalition liberates Kuwait. However, more than 2,000 Americans are killed, and Saddam suppresses a Kurdish-Shiite uprising.

1992: President Rumsfeld is defeated by Governor Cuomo
 
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