If we assume a butterfly net is in effect, then Rumsfeld would surely win the nomination in 1988. Against Dukakis, he'd have a less moderate image, but at the same time, he wouldn't choose Quayle, so he'd likely win a similar margin in the popular vote. Something like this.
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Rumsfeld/[insert moderate here]: 439 EV
Dukakis/Bentsen: 99 EV
As for his presidency, I'd say Rumsfeld would do worse during the recession and I cannot see him accomplish the sheer mastery Bush was able to do with the Gulf War. Maybe he'd look more vulnerable and this would make a known force like Mario Cuomo contest the nomination in 1992; all I know for sure is that the Democrat would win.
Nice map!
Perhaps Cuomo, rather than Dole, is nominated in `96
Cuomo was a Democrat! I can't believe he's been forgotten!
I was thinking Rumsfeld would be beat by any Democrat in 1992. Maybe Cuomo makes a run for it, though a case can be made he never wanted to be president at all.
My mistake, I changed it to "someone liberal."
What happens to Bush Sr?
One of two things: Either he's a footnote in history remembered for beating Reagan in Iowa, or he'd make a run for it in 1996.
Yeah, I agree, someone more liberal would be picked, though Dole was perceived as moderate by many party regulars. I'd say the good economy makes it impossible for any Republican in 1996 to win.
Gingrich or Bush, even McCain?
Gingrich is pretty conservative. Just look at all of his current statements on Islam. Not what the Republican Party would want in a nominee after the defeat of the conservative Rumsfeld.
Bush is a possibility, but I think it's too early for McCain. He could be a VP candidate in 1996 for sure though.
Does the Republican Revolution happen, or would the Republicans be too against conservatives after Rumsfeld's defeat?
Does the Republican Revolution happen, or would the Republicans be too against conservatives after Rumsfeld's defeat?
The biggest political butterfly to a Rumsfeld presidency would have been the Perot independent presidential runs. I've seen arguments that the 1992 run was done mainly due to personal animosity towards the Bushes
Well, IOTL, Perot split an equal number of voters from both Bill Clinton and Bush Sr. I can't see it being terribly different ITTL.
Perhaps Perot hurts the Reps even more