WI: Volga German independent state post 1991

Here is a map of the interwar Volga German Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, which existed between 1918 and 1941, when, in response to the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, Stalin deported the Volga Germans:
Volga_German.png

In 1939, it had a population of 606,352, of whom 60% were Volga Germans.

In OTL, even if Stalin had not deported the Volga Germans and the ASSR had survived, it would today not be an independent republic, but a republic of Russia, since all the ASSRs within Russian in Soviet times are still part of Russia today, whereas the seperate SSRs (Soviet Socialist Republics) all became independent.

What if, in an ATL, a) Stalin doesn't deport them, and, b) the ASSR is upgraded to an SSR, allowing it to declare independence in 1991?

This would result in there being a German-speaking country on the eastern edges of Europe bordering Kazakhstan. How do you think that would play out?
 
I can't see Stalin holding from deporting the Germans, though another Soviet dictator might refrain from that. If they become an ASSR, and perhaps get an influx of deported Baltic Germans? I don't know how to get them SSR status though. You need probably a few million people in my opinion, afterall, the Soviets probably would not do it unless for some reason the head of the party needs more SSRs though I can't think why they would?
 
Areas surrounded by Soviet territory were generally not considered to meet the criteria for Union Republics, it being felt that such areas could not meaningfully exercise their (theoretical) right of secession. Hence even if the Volga Germans had not been deported--or more realistically, even if they had been allowed to return and re-establish their republic the way some other deported nationalities were--they would not have anything more than an ASSR, and would not be able to achieve independence in 1991 any more than the Volga Tatars or Bashkirs.
 
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The Volga Germans would probably have to fight like the Chechens if they could even keep their area as an ASSR. And honestly,they'd probably lose sooner and harder considering they would have no support from their neighbors as Kazakhstan would be pretty Pro-Russian plus there would be no foreign support.

It's probably more realistic for Karelia to have stayed an SSR and then left or for the Chechens to somehow succeed in beating back Russia and even then,it would be tough.
 

trurle

Banned
Here is a map of the interwar Volga German Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic, which existed between 1918 and 1941, when, in response to the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union, Stalin deported the Volga Germans:
In 1939, it had a population of 606,352, of whom 60% were Volga Germans.

In OTL, even if Stalin had not deported the Volga Germans and the ASSR had survived, it would today not be an independent republic, but a republic of Russia, since all the ASSRs within Russian in Soviet times are still part of Russia today, whereas the seperate SSRs (Soviet Socialist Republics) all became independent.

What if, in an ATL, a) Stalin doesn't deport them, and, b) the ASSR is upgraded to an SSR, allowing it to declare independence in 1991?

This would result in there being a German-speaking country on the eastern edges of Europe bordering Kazakhstan. How do you think that would play out?
I doubt the majority of Volga Germans were natively speaking German in 20th century. Of about ten my Volga-German relatives, i remember exactly one (born around ~1910) who used German-language profanities sometimes. The rest spoke Russian or Ukrainian exclusively.
 
I doubt the majority of Volga Germans were natively speaking German in 20th century. Of about ten my Volga-German relatives, i remember exactly one (born around ~1910) who used German-language profanities sometimes. The rest spoke Russian or Ukrainian exclusively.

And yet as late as 1939 the Soviet census showed 88.4% "native language proficiency" among Soviet Germans. https://books.google.com/books?id=EXX-lakQIM8C&pg=PA177 Now, I'm not sure what the definition of "proficiency" was, and no doubt many people "proficient" in German spoke Russian most of the time. But still the percentage is pretty high, and didn't go to below 50 percent until 1989...
 
I doubt the majority of Volga Germans were natively speaking German in 20th century. Of about ten my Volga-German relatives, i remember exactly one (born around ~1910) who used German-language profanities sometimes. The rest spoke Russian or Ukrainian exclusively.

My Volga German family came to the U.S. in 1907 and didn't speak Russian at all, to my knowledge. If the A.S.S.R. hadn't been abolished, it probably would have stayed bilingual in Russian and German. I think you'd have to avoid WWII to keep it from being abolished, though.
 
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