WI: Vlasov does not betray the Soviet Union

If I recall correctly, right after the failed attack against the German forces around Leningrad in 1942, Vlasov's soldiers offered him a plane to escape from the front, but the general denied, decided to hide in a farm, was thus captured by the Germans, and the rest is history. So what if Vlasov decided to take that plane?

What would his fate be? I mean, he did get an entire army under him destroyed while trying to alleviate the siege of Leningrad, but he was also, at least at the time, a loyal and capable general who successfully defended (or helped defend) Moscow, so would Stalin purge him for the defeat of not? If not, then how would his career during the rest of World War II go?

Would the non-existence of a centralized Nazi Russian collaborant army in the form of the ROA have an effect on the Soviet war effort, if any?
 

Deleted member 1487

If I recall correctly, right after the failed attack against the German forces around Leningrad in 1942, Vlasov's soldiers offered him a plane to escape from the front, but the general denied, decided to hide in a farm, was thus captured by the Germans, and the rest is history. So what if Vlasov decided to take that plane?

What would his fate be? I mean, he did get an entire army under him destroyed while trying to alleviate the siege of Leningrad, but he was also, at least at the time, a loyal and capable general who successfully defended (or helped defend) Moscow, so would Stalin purge him for the defeat of not? If not, then how would his career during the rest of World War II go?

Would the non-existence of a centralized Nazi Russian collaborant army in the form of the ROA have an effect on the Soviet war effort, if any?
He was a capable general from what I gather and the situation with 2nd Shock Army was not his fault, he was brought in the fix the situation, but it was doomed regardless. I wonder if he stayed behind IOTL because he was afraid of Stalin's wrath and/or lost faith in him. He might get purged if he comes back with the 2nd Shock army being destroyed. If not he probably goes on to command 2nd Shock Army after it is rebuilt and if the subsequent fate of that army to Manstein's counterattack in September happens...he might get fired or executed. Likely he remains a minor historical figure and probably ends up getting executed sooner than he would have IOTL. As to the ROA...that was pretty meaningless IOTL, so likely not much changes other than the personnel get used for forced labor or die in camps.
 

Wendigo

Banned
As to the ROA...that was pretty meaningless IOTL, so likely not much changes other than the personnel get used for forced labor or die in camps.
I'm sure the Reich would have found another suitable figurehead. IOTL the ROA had many former Soviet major generals, colonels, majors, commisars etc some of whom were even Heroes of the Soviet Union so it isn't like they could never find an official "leader" for the ROA.

This isn't even going into the various units not under Vlasov's control like the Russian National Liberation Army, the Russian National People's Army, the Druzhina Brigade, the Russian Corps, the various Cossack Units, plus all the Caucasian and Central Asian units as well.

IOTL between 1 and 2 million Soviets served or fought with the Wehrmacht/Waffen SS between 1941 and 1945. Vlasov's absence wouldn't change this. Hitler squandered said forces immensely due to racism and they never reached their full potential. If they had, they would have been a formidable force against the Red Army/WAllies.
 
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I doubt that the personal prestige of Vlasov had that much to do with the Vlasov movement. I'm actually surprised that there weren't more Vlasovites, given that the alternative was a lingering death in the German prisoner-of-war camps...
 

Wendigo

Banned
I doubt that the personal prestige of Vlasov had that much to do with the Vlasov movement. I'm actually surprised that there weren't more Vlasovites, given that the alternative was a lingering death in the German prisoner-of-war camps...
Or being worked to death in a factory or mine.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
I'm actually surprised that there weren't more Vlasovites, given that the alternative was a lingering death in the German prisoner-of-war camps...

Or being worked to death in a factory or mine.

Putting it this way makes me wonder if Hitler really had anything to squander:
Hitler squandered said forces immensely due to racism and they never reached their full potential. If they had, they would have been a formidable force against the Red Army/WAllies.

Imagine for a moment the Nazis (under a Hitler acting out of character)*, apply standards of the French occupation to the Soviet campaign. There's reprisals against partisans but not the starvation of PoWs or the Commisar Order or the extra bits of cruelty that distinguished the war in the east.

Do we get *fewer* Soviet citizens joining the Vlasov movement or the Waffen SS, since they have the alternative of a more tolerable existence as PoWs.


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*Of course this can run into the quite reasonable objection that Hitler not doing any of this stuff isn't or Hitler and wouldn't be invading the Soviet Union at all. After all, why invade the USSR simply for "regime change" if you don't get to enjoy enslaving the population and stealing their land and so on.

And there can be a further objection, especially if you are fully sensitive to the logistical demands of Barbarossa and agree more with authors like Tooze and Tim Snyder. Basically, that argument suggests that starving the natives [and to stop natives from "stealing" to alleviate starvation, you need to shoot alot of them] is part and parcel of mounting vast operations to conquer the Soviet Union at a bearable cost for Germany. And one could similarly say the same of Japanese occupation of Southeast Asia. The act of occupying the land and feeding soldiers at a bearable cost to Japan means starving the natives. According to this interpretation invasion and genocide are pretty much the same, the latter is not an optional "surplus" of the former.*

*at least unless you have access to the global food market like the US and British Commonwealth.
 
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Wendigo

Banned
Do we get *fewer* Soviet citizens joining the Vlasov movement or the Waffen SS, since they have the alternative of a more tolerable existence as PoWs.
I don't think so because the more PoWs that survive 1941 (2.8 MILLION died from June 1941 to February 1942) means the more that join or are convinced to join the Wehrmacht/Waffen SS as Hiwis. A rational Hitler would have listened to those who desired to form an organized army of collaborators so it would have balanced out. Not every Soviet who joined German forces did so out of fear of horrific conditions as a POW.
A number of German generals also supported the organization of eastern volunteer formations, but for a long time without success. In the autumn of 1941, Field Marshal von Bock had sent to Hitler's Headquarters a detailed project for the organization of a Liberation Army of some 200,000 Russian volunteers, and for the formation of a local government in the province of Smolensk; It was returned in November 1941 with the notation that "such thoughts cannot be discussed with the Fuehrer," and that "politics are not the prerogatives of Army Group Commanders." Of course, Field-Marshal Keitel, who wrote this notation, did not show the project to Hitler.(1)

The forerunner of the volunteer formations was a voluntary auxiliary service, of a para- military character, which was started in the autumn of 1941 by the German Commands on the front. On their own initiative, they organized auxiliary units of various services, made up of Soviet deserters, prisoners, and volunteers from among the local population. These so-called "Hilfswillige," or "Hiwi," were employed as sentries, drivers, store- keepers, workers in depots, etc. The experiment surpassed all expectations. In the spring of 1942 there were already at least 200,000 of them in the rear of the German armies, and by the end of the same year their number was allegedly near 1,000,000.(2)
http://www.feldgrau.com/rvol.html
 
He might get purged if he comes back with the 2nd Shock army being destroyed.

Not likely. The STAVKA, once they realized how hopeless the 2nd Shock Army's position had become, actually tried to get him out themselves but acted too late and he had already been captured.

If not he probably goes on to command 2nd Shock Army after it is rebuilt and if the subsequent fate of that army to Manstein's counterattack in September happens...he might get fired or executed.

That's presumptuous given the butterflies that are unleashed by having a commander as talented as Vlasov remain in Soviet hands. He probably winds-up becoming a front commander like Rokossovsky did...
 

Deleted member 1487

Not likely. The STAVKA, once they realized how hopeless the 2nd Shock Army's position had become, actually tried to get him out themselves but acted too late and he had already been captured.
Alright, but to what end? I'm sure there were words they would be having with him at STAVKA.

That's presumptuous given the butterflies that are unleashed by having a commander as talented as Vlasov remain in Soviet hands. He probably winds-up becoming a front commander like Rokossovsky did...
Perhaps, though he'd likely not be getting promoted just after the destruction of 2nd Shock Army, he'd be expected to prove himself elsewhere on the offensive before getting the honor and responsibility of a Front command.
 
Many in the Ukraine were begging to fight communism. He could have had an army of helpers and won. This is what happens when ideology trumps no pun intended reality.
 
Many in the Ukraine were begging to fight communism. He could have had an army of helpers and won. This is what happens when ideology trumps no pun intended reality.

But note that there's--let us say, a tension :p-- between supporting Russian nationalists and supporting Ukrainian nationalists. You can't very well please both...
 
Executed or left to rot in a gulag if he was ever rescued. Surrender is as good as collaboration for Stalin. Of course, that's if he survives the Nazi PoW camps. If he can survive past Stalin's death, he'd probably be released and live on as a minor footnote in history. Either way, death isn't going to leave him alone just on dubious loyalties to the homeland.
 
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