WI : Vitiges letter never reaches Persia

Fundamentally, one of the major reasons Justinian failed to take Italy easily was that Vitiges manages to communicate the amount of forces committed in Italy to Persia.

Very simply, lets assume that by pure misfortune, or betrayal, Vitiges' letters never reach Persia (perhaps a turncoat handling the letters, or the ships carrying the letter are intercepted and the letter is found).

What are the side effects? Does this mean a smooth conquest of Italy (minus the sack of Mediolanium) ? Would this allow the Empire to raise a new Army of Reconquest from Italy - whilst dedicating forces back to fight Persia?
 
Interesting! I'd never heard. It's always interesting the counter-intuitive extremes collusion can reach in history between enemies of enemies.

Surely the Persians would have had some awareness of Rome's activities regardless? And they did decide to be the aggressor at times.
 
Anything that would make the reconquest of Italy smoother and ideally faster is ideal for the Romans.

So I'd say, yes possibly. This does all assume that the Persians did not have their own sources of intelligence but if the Romans had say, another decade of not having to worry about the Eastern frontier I'd think they would be in good shape to consolidate their gains in the West.

That said though they should not attempt to do much more than press to the Alps for a generation or two. My understanding is that even without the Persians invading, the reconquest of the West was a massive strain on the Empire's resources. Until Italy is paying for itself and it and Africa are both capable of providing troops for the armies the Romans didn't need to be courting disaster by pressing farther than they already had.
 
Anything that would make the reconquest of Italy smoother and ideally faster is ideal for the Romans.

So I'd say, yes possibly. This does all assume that the Persians did not have their own sources of intelligence but if the Romans had say, another decade of not having to worry about the Eastern frontier I'd think they would be in good shape to consolidate their gains in the West.

That said though they should not attempt to do much more than press to the Alps for a generation or two. My understanding is that even without the Persians invading, the reconquest of the West was a massive strain on the Empire's resources. Until Italy is paying for itself and it and Africa are both capable of providing troops for the armies the Romans didn't need to be courting disaster by pressing farther than they already had.

Well, interestingly, even post-Plague, Narses was sent with a larger army to retake Italy - so it is possible, and Belisarius arguably was doing it on the (relative) cheap.

However, having Belisarius return to Constantinople (probably to another Triumph) without the incident involving claiming Imperium as a ruse, could address concerns as to his loyalty. Procopius makes that point clear, but Belisarius being at court could directly address the problems. He has been away (and the object of jealously) for a very long time, I have little doubt he can address those concerns and then be sent to the Persian front when it opens up. I'd so far as to say that he'd be able to turn the war against the Persians and capture parts of northern Mesopotamia before Justinian organises a peace treaty that halts him there. However, at that point Belisarius is likely the only man who could threaten Justinians rule, so he needs to be reined in.

However, having Persia paying tribute instead of the Romans during the plague would be a welcome jump start for the future, as well as any further plunder Justinian confiscates off of Belisarius.

I don't know how badly the Plague of Justinian hurt the rest of Europe, but post-recovery, Narses and an army could be sent to take advantage of the weakness that Europe may not have recovered from, at least to take Spain, whilst Belisarius is kept close to home to defend the Empire, rather than gain more glory in the field.
 
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