Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
What happens if Virginia decides to implement gradual emancipation in the 1830s?
Eventually Kentucky, North Carolina, Maryland, Tennessee and Arkansas follow.
Expansion of slavery seen as much less of a problem
Probably no (or a much shorter) War Between the States.
I believe that the historic proposals that were circulated in Virginia at that time were predicated on the notion that most blacks freed would be removed from the state, preferably through colonization in Africa. The basic reasons for the failure of colonization schemes still exist, so I suspect that instead, most of these blacks would wind up settling in the western territories.
I believe that the historic proposals that were circulated in Virginia at that time were predicated on the notion that most blacks freed would be removed from the state, preferably through colonization in Africa. The basic reasons for the failure of colonization schemes still exist, so I suspect that instead, most of these blacks would wind up settling in the western territories.
Eventually Kentucky, North Carolina, Maryland, Tennessee and Arkansas follow.
Agreed, although it's important to identify what gradual emancipation means. It would probably have several components mirroring the gradual emancipation in Pennsylvania and deportation.
1) Prohibition of new slaves being sent to the state effective immediately or at a very nearby date.
2) Establishing all children born after a certain date or free, but possibly that children born of slave mothers be indentured servants until a certain time.
3) Establishment of a registry of slaves to comply enforcement. Those slaves not registered annually or improperly become emanicpated immediately.
4) Probably some sort of colonization clause that would deport freed blacks to Liberia.
5) Enslaved blacks at the time of the law would remain slaves, although it is likely after many decades any surviving elderly blacks would be emanicpated by another law.
This means that slavery would continue for some time in Virginia. However, Virginia passing such a law would establish precedent and credibility in other states, and we'd likely see the above states introduce similar laws on their own in the next decade or two.
With the Upper South committed to abolition of some kind, the Deep South will never be able to enforce free state/slave state parity in the Senate. That will eliminate much of the animosity of the Mexican War and avoid the Kansas-Nebraska debacle. It also probably means Congress will designate new territories as free and prevent its spread beyond any state where it already exists by 1848 or so.
Within the states that adopted gradual emanicpation, we won't see much change for the first two decades. But after that, the slave population will begin to decline severely, and those people entering the workforce won't be slaves at all. That probably means Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee will begin to industrialize along the lines of Pennsylvania and the Midwest.
The Whigs will never split up over slavery. Southern Whigs will be comfortable with discussion of gradual emancipation. Even if Whigs in the Deep South become so hostile over any discussion in their states that the Whigs die there, there are enough electoral votes in play that the national Whig Party can survive as is, and a free soil Republican Party will never arise from their ashes.
Probably by the 1880s, the Upper South is predominantly free with a small population of elderly slaves. At that stage (if not before), there will be political pressure for the Deep South to embark on similar policy to eliminate slavery entirely from the country. It's possible such emanicpation will come from Congress and not the states, and rely on new federal revenue from taxes and customs for a program of compensated emanicpation rather than gradual.
The real question is what happens to all the newly freed blacks? Colonization is not a practical strategy for such large numbers. While some will be sent off to Liberia, I think many more will find a way to stay. Might there be encouragement to designate some territory as a black homeland and encourage them to move there? If not on the continental, then perhaps a Caribbean island will be targetted for annexation to encourage deportation there?
They could end up as indentured servants/sharecroppers like in OTL, or even possibly be part of a bigger (yet still failed) colonization attempt. The Western territories I don't think were very kind to free blacks at the time, so the place of Freedmen could form the big political question of the day. Deport or keep as wards of the state in a sense.