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The Virginia conference on secession was a lot closer than one might imagine. What if the Lincoln administration did at least one of the following
1. Leave Fort Sumter. Even those in Virginia who wished to remain in the Union wanted the garrison withdrawn.
2. Recognising the fragility of the situation the Union doesn't call up the Virginia militias.

Alternately
1. The pro-unionists manage to get a postponement of the conference until October 1861
2. The referendum when it was held was a secret ballot

Would any of these affect the outcome?

Also if Virginia stays what about the rest of the Upper South?
What about the USN in Norfolk?

Paradoxically it might prolong the Confederacy as I doubt if Virginia even in the Union would stand for Union armies marching through so it would hinge on an alt-western campaign.

Further down the line no West Virginia, other changes?
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