WI Viking 2 finds ice on Mars? (1977)

From Wired:

Meteorites that crashed into the Martian surface last year exposed buried ice to the digital eyes of NASA spacecraft. Scientists have used those images to deduce that there is a lot more ice on Mars — and that it's closer to the equator — than previously thought. In fact, subterranean Martian ice should extend all the way down beyond 48 degrees of latitude, according to the model, which was published in Science Thursday. That happens to be where the Viking Lander 2 was in operation from 1976 to 1980. As part of its science program, the Lander dug a trench about 6 inches deep. The new model predicts that if it had gone an extra 3.5 inches — a bit longer than a credit card — it would have hit ice.

And Charlie Stross:

The only thing I can say is: wow. The whole focus of space exploration during the 1980s and 1990s would have shifted dramatically if the Viking landers had uncovered ice. I don't think we'd have seen an Apollo-style rush to send astronauts there, but there was a hiatus of nearly 20 years after Viking during with the American space science academy mostly ignored Mars, focusing instead on the grand outer planets missions (Galileo and Cassini) and the Hubble space telescope. And the decision to build the international space station in the late 1980s might have gone somewhat differently if there'd been serious competition from a manned Mars mission lobby.

To me, space programme geeks! What kind of butterflies could such a discovery have had - on the US space programme, technological development, and maybe even the course of the Cold War?
 
As this would still be in the heyday of the Cold War and Space Race (albeit, post-Apollo), might such a discovery (no confirmed life, but a possible capacity for it, or at least a capacity for human life to go there) reinvigorate mission attempts towards a manned mission?

At the very least, many more probes with mission profiles similar to what we're sending to the Moon and Mars now in the search for resources that could be of use to life (be it ancient native life or potential future colonization).

Maybe also the Face on Mars might get played up as a possible reason for further study (There is ice there, and potential alien artifacts, even if the 'alien' nature later is proven to be nonexistant).
 

Thande

Donor
It's possible that we might see a joint U.S.-Soviet mission, especially if butterflies make detente continue.

The space shuttle was probably too far along to cancel, but there were plans to convert the same stack into an unmanned heavy lifter that would have been useful for this: (from 1978)

In-Line_SDLV_1978.jpg


The same strategies that lead to a space station work very well for building a modular interplanetary ship in orbit, and space stations were what dominated the agenda for a long time in OTL, so I could see a manned Mars mission happening - though there are the concerns over radiation of course.
 
??? I don't get it. We KNOW there's ice on Mars. So this shows it's a bit more widespread. Yes, this may create some more interest, but I really don't see it turning the whole space exploration program upside down.
 
Only since last year. Prior to Phoenix, the orthodox thinking was that the ice on Mars was wholly or mostly dry ice (frozen carbon dioxide).

Umm... No. The polar ice caps were certainly covered in CO2, but there was water underneath (at least the northern one?). That has been known for quite a while.

http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/M/Marspoles.html said:
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Later observations by the Viking orbiters showed that the north polar cap contained water ice underneath its dry ice covering; [/FONT]
http://www.daviddarling.info/encyclopedia/V/Viking.html said:
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Twin spacecraft, Viking 1 and Viking 2, launched toward Mars on Aug. 20 and Sep. 8, 1975. Each consisted of an orbiter and a lander (with a combined mass, less propellant, of 600 kg), the latter carrying a sophisticated package of instruments, including several experiments designed to search for traces of life in the Martian soil (see Mars, life). [/FONT]
 
Umm... No. The polar ice caps were certainly covered in CO2, but there was water underneath (at least the northern one?). That has been known for quite a while.

However, that ice was believed until quite recently to be confined to the very high latitudes. Partly, indeed, due to the Viking landers not finding any.
 

Thande

Donor
Umm... No. The polar ice caps were certainly covered in CO2, but there was water underneath (at least the northern one?). That has been known for quite a while.
You're right, but I was oversimplifying (and speaking from my own perspective: my own astronomy books from the 80s still seemed to strike a sceptical tone about the presence of water at all, even under the northern cap).

In any case it's not that different as the water was still thought to be unobtainable...
 
In any case it's not that different as the water was still thought to be unobtainable...

??? I'm sure I've seen scenarios that involved landing in the high latitudes to get water. But I'm still confused why people think that proof of more water would cause the entire space exploration program to change.

Yes, it's a neat scientific fact. Yes, it makes life a touch more likely. But it doesn't really CHANGE anything that I can see.
 
I don't think finding ice on Mars in 1976 changes very much. People want to find <life> and the Viking life tests will still be inconclusive.

Still, maybe we get a Viking successor in the early instead of late 80s.

And then we're disappointed and, as a result, the following flights are delayed.

The obsession with Mars is so silly--all because somebody mistranslated the Italian word for "channel" a century ago.
 
The obsession with Mars is so silly--all because somebody mistranslated the Italian word for "channel" a century ago.

Well, nowadays people are interested in Mars because the Moon is just rock (slightly wet rock), Venus is a roaster, Jupiter is a radioactive hellhole, Saturn and points further out are very cold, and Mercury is kind of like Venus. So, it's the only largish body which is even remotely habitable or, to be honest, interesting in any other than the geological sense.
 

Archibald

Banned
There was a third Viking probe, a backup or an ingeneering model.
It was to go to Mars in 1979, carrying a rover. As an alternative the thing could be mounted on tracks (similar to a armored vehicle) and move slowly across Mars landscape.

Maybe you can modify the thing for deep drilling.

There were also projects for Pioneer-Venus probes modified for Mars missions, with hard impactors.
 
As I recall Viking killed interest in Mars and led to a lack of care about a manned mission and such as it was then perceived as dead and with no chance of life existing. The whole "Life on Mars" thing that came in the 90's is what reinvigorated interest again. If ice is found, you could avert that death of interest. That butterfly would perhaps lead to concern about the exploration of Mars and stifle the death of concern about NASA and space as a whole because of it.
 
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