WI Vichy France contests invasion of French Indochina?

SNOWMAN23
"the Richelieu had only two operational guns following a shell explosion in one of its turrets, (Plus it had a top speed of only around 15 knots) while Dunkerque was still have torpedo damage from Mers-el-Khebir being repaired."
I was being generous to make a point.

:eek:Sorry, I can be a stickler sometimes
 

Da Pwnzlord

Banned
What would be the rest of the world's reaction to the Japanese Force Z-ing the French fleet? Would they even be so bold to try that? It seems like it would instantly cause much hightened tensions in the Pacific, if not outright war. I was under the impression that before WWII, the European powers acted together in matters of colonies against Japan, the whole reason Japan hadn't overran Dutch Indonesia years ago.
 
Back to my question on the previous page - forget naval engagements for a second - did the local French land and air forces have much of a presence in Indochina in September 1940? Enough to put up much more of a fight than they did IOTL?
 

Da Pwnzlord

Banned
For those still fantasizing about a French squadron travelling all the way to Indochina to challenge Japan:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Tsushima
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sinking_of_Prince_of_Wales_and_Repulse

But as said before, Herr Hitler wanted the Japanese in Indo-China and the Royal Navy wasn’t about to let German Allied ships free passage anywhere anyway.

I don't think anyone was "fantasizing" about a French victory. I agree that if the Vichy fleet tried anything against the Japanese, they would loose, and loose quite badly. But it would effect the Pacific war in many indirect way. America would make the sanctions harder, sooner. Maybe Force Z would learn by example not to get within range of enemy bombers.

I disagree that the British absolutely wouldn't stand for the Vichy French fleet sailing. It's Vichy France (who they don't like) going to fight the Japanese (who they don't like). Either way, the British win.
 
I can't remember the guy's name, but I think the Vichy governor-general of the time was a bit of a closet Nazi, and had to explain himself to de Gaulle at the war's end.

Admiral Jean Decoux. I don't think he can legitimately be called a Nazi, but he sure was one of Darlan's men and a Pétainist.
 
I don't think anyone was "fantasizing" about a French victory. I agree that if the Vichy fleet tried anything against the Japanese, they would loose, and loose quite badly. But it would effect the Pacific war in many indirect way. America would make the sanctions harder, sooner. Maybe Force Z would learn by example not to get within range of enemy bombers.

I disagree that the British absolutely wouldn't stand for the Vichy French fleet sailing. It's Vichy France (who they don't like) going to fight the Japanese (who they don't like). Either way, the British win.

The real impact wouldn't be the naval battle - of course the IJN would win it, with 4 CVs to none (or 1/2 if the US release Béarn). But politically the potential domino effect could have been a lot more beneficial to the Allied cause. With the French Fleet gone and Vichy in open rebellion, Case Anton is launched much earlier. With Vichy fully occupied, Vichy colonies start going Fighting France. With French colonies in Allied hands, the invasion of Italy can start maybe a year before it did OTL. With Italy in Allied hands and the Med an Allied lake, the Allies can contemplate a move towards France or the Balkans. With the Allies getting a solid foothold on France/Yugoslavia a lot earlier, we look at a completely different postwar situation.
 

Graehame

Banned
DA PWNZLORDD
"I disagree that the British absolutely wouldn't stand for the Vichy French fleet sailing. It's Vichy France (who they don't like) going to fight the Japanese (who they don't like). Either way, the British win."
You're trying to apply logic to a highly emotional situation. The French felt very betrayed by the Brits, who'd insulted French honor by ignoring promises not to turn the fleet over to Germany & had actually attacked the French fleet. Shelled it, dropped bombs on it, & killed loyal Frenchmen! Ask those fiendish bastards for favors? Not on your @#!&% life!
As for the Brits, they felt highly betrayed by the fact that France had made a separate peace, effectively stranding the BEF across the Channel-- from whence they'd barely been evacuated at great risk & by a huge stroke of luck. So even if they do say they want to go fight the Japs, how do we know they'll really sail halfway around the world to do it? How do we know it isn't some kind of a trick? And even if it isn't, what kind of shape will they be in when they arrive? Will they even be able to fight anyone? How do we know they won't simply sit in harbor in Saigon 'til the Japs take over the ships, in which case we will have just given the Japs a very expensive present? Hell-- how do we know they haven't cut a deal with the Germans to turn the fleet over to the Japs in exchange for a quid pro quo? Brit paranoia was running pretty high in those days.
No, the French were in no mood to ask favors, & the Brits-- meaning Churchill-- were in no mood to be "reasonable".
 
Britain received a lot of bad pub among neutrals when they attacked the French fleet at Oran. The reason Britain sought to neutralize the fleet was the possibility it would fall into German hands. Wouldn't letting these ships sail halfway around the world (away from Germany) to get sunk by the Japanese acheive the same end without the bad propaganda? The RN could easily shadow the French ships to make sure they went where they were supposed to. Even if the ships sailed straight into japanese hands, there is no way they could be sent to Germany, and as Japanese units, they would add little value to the Japanese fleet given the fact that the most powerful units were damaged andused different calibre ammunition from the Japanese navy.

I think the Brits would let them go.

Hitler is the one most likely to squelch the idea by reminding Petain that his nation survives as an independent state on German sufferance - and that such independence does not include fighting a war with anybody except the USSR or Britain.
 

Graehame

Banned
ZOOMAR
By Sep, when all this is supposed to have happened, the Brits had already attacked the French fleet & suffered the bad publicity, so letting the fleet go would have solved nothing in that regard.

"The RN could easily shadow the French ships to make sure they went where they were supposed to."
The RN at this time was locked in a death-struggle with the German U-boats, trying to maintain a blockade against the escape of German commerce raiders & major surface units, & committed to maintain a large fleet in the Med. Diverting enough major surface ships to shadow the French halfway around the world & make sure they did what they were supposed to would have been tough. They didn't even want to send the PoW & the Repulse to Singapore, but were essentially strong-armed into it by the US.

"Even if the ships sailed straight into japanese hands, there is no way they could be sent to Germany..."
Why not?

"...and as Japanese units, they would add little value to the Japanese fleet given the fact that the most powerful units were damaged and used different calibre ammunition from the Japanese navy."
Problems that the Japanese shipbuilders could have fixed in a few months to a year. Besides, as I've pointed out, neither the French nor the Brits were disposed at the time to be rational about any of this.
 
Admiral Jean Decoux. I don't think he can legitimately be called a Nazi, but he sure was one of Darlan's men and a Pétainist.

Given the OTL circumstances, there was not a whole lot the Vichy could have done. Decoux was relatively new on the job and in his defense, tried to preserve whatever was left of the old colonial administration to "return" to France - regardless of Free or Vichy.

Anyways, first would be the obvious one sided battles resulting in some dead military personal and a lot more dead French colons - around a hundred thousand in Vietnam alone I believe. Decoux did not resist because he feared retribution against the civilians. Second, it will stretch the supply line of Japan just a little more (no naval and air bases in Saigon and Hai Phong) for bombings to towards Malaysia and Singapore or a safe base of operations for any South China campaigns. Long term effects in Asia are probably like...

1. Thailand treated completely as an Axis member. Instead of sparing with a weaken Vichy France - it will be grabbing much bigger chunks of Cambodia and Laos from the carcass of what is left, especially the latter. The UK forced Thailand to pay reparations and it might be more severe, possible with more territorial concessions to Burma, Malaysia, Cambodia, and Thailand.

2. Pol Pot's genocide might be butterflied away - maybe even Laos and Cambodia's communism. Thailand had much stronger claims to Laos and would be likely given much of it in the follow up treaty. Since Laos OTL was used by the French as early as 1940 as a guerrilla base against Japanese, the bases might be moved to less secure and remote locations in Vietnam and Cambodia. Given the Khmers were about halfway between the Vietnam and Laos in their independence stances, I see no reason why Cambodians would go strongly independent if the French fought with them against the Thais and Japanese. Laos was much more dependent on the Vietnamese anti-colonial movement as the Lao and French fought together against the Thais and Japanese. In our timeline, the Khmer Rouge initially was supported by the Viet Minh.

3. Stronger Indochinese support at first but it would get progressively weaker. Many Vietnamese were confused on why the Japanese "liberators" did not break down the old colonial administration as they did with the Philippines and Burma. Since there would be nothing left to protect them, I don't see how the Japanese surely would not start forcing slave labor. As a result, there would be much more deaths on the scale of other Asian nations in WWII with resistance groups, collobrationists groups, Allied groups, Axis groups.

4. Far messier post-war Vietnamese politics. With the exception of the Catholics, most of strongest groups were either pro-Japanese or pro-Viet Minh. If Vichy resists, these Catholics would face much harsher persecution by the occupation and likely would not leave much of a base of native support for the United States to build on for the American-Vietnamese War. The religious groups, that the South Vietnamese government strongly opposed ,were many of the supporters of the Japanese during the occupation. The Viet Minh, controlled by the Indochinese Communist Party, will have a hell of harder time trying to blame both the French and Japanese and drawing support on both of them. Unfortunately, this means the religous secs and other pro-Japanese groups will play a much bigger role later on for the "liberation".

5. Hell the whole Vietnam Wars might get butterflied away. The Viet Minh were quite pragmatic (Ho was still willing to negotiate with the French until 1945 when Hai Phong was shelled). If there was any Governor-General, it would be Decoux to make concessions to the Vietnamese (he did some OTL). Vietnam was pretty screwed up badly by the French but this would surely help France's position overall in Indochina post war.

Hmm that's all I can think of now.
 
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