WI: Vela incident unambiguously an Israeli or South African Nuclear Test?

[TheKutKu]

The Vela incident in 1979 is now more or less universally thought as a nuclear test, but there is still considerable doubt over which country did it. It is very likely either a South African or an Israeli (who had nuclear weapons for 13 years at this point) test.

So my question is, what would be the international community's reaction to the test if it was made by one of them? Let's say more data was found in the immediate aftermath to corroborate the test, or even an official acknowledgment (extremely unlikely for israel i realize), or a large leak... The mean doesn't matter much, but within a few months it becomes public knowledge the tests happened and there aren't any doubts over which country did it.

What would be the world's reaction if it was an Israeli test? Or a south african test? Or a joint one?

 

[Marc]

The Vela incident in 1979 is now more or less universally thought as a nuclear test, but there is still considerable doubt over which country did it. It is very likely either a South African or an Israeli (who had nuclear weapons for 13 years at this point) test.

So my question is, what would be the international community's reaction to the test if it was made by one of them? Let's say more data was found in the immediate aftermath to corroborate the test, or even an official acknowledgment (extremely unlikely for israel i realize), or a large leak... The mean doesn't matter much, but within a few months it becomes public knowledge the tests happened and there aren't any doubts over which country did it.

What would be the world's reaction if it was an Israeli test? Or a south african test? Or a joint one?

Last I heard, there wasn't much dispute; the consensus was that was an Israeli test (their one and only), in close cooperation with South Africa - one of those ends justify the means situations which the Israelis have found themselves in, too often, which usually leads to a lot of Arak being drunk late in the night.
Israel's substantial nuclear arsenal - they could be as high as 3rd on the size list, more than China - has been the mad woman in the attic, as in we don't talk about it, and we certainly don't talk about how large it is, for decades now. A field test really didn't matter in terms of international affairs.

 

[Michel Van]

There is some Issue with case
The Official papers of South African Atomic bomb program tell they were not ready to build a Nuke in 1979

Israel keeps there program under top secret, what started around 1967 (with French Help)
but there some Indication that Israel had working nuklear Warheads in 1973
in documents about Yom Kippur War is mention that Israel Government consider the use of there Nuclear Weapons.
And you would not consider that option if you got only untested Prototypes.

If that the case, it's likely that Israel tested there Warhead in end of 1960s or begin 1970s either on nuclear Testsite of USA in Nevada or french Mururoa.

Interesting is that Vela Incident happen the west of the French-owned Kerguelen Islands and the Crozet Islands !
also to know is that Explosion notice by Vela were in two to three kilotons range
The French have speciality: low level Nukes down to 50 tons range. but there no mention of French nuclear test in that area in 1979
but again Israel could play a role in that case

in 2029 the US Government could release classified files on the Vela Incident.

 

[Catsmate]

The Vela incident in 1979 is now more or less universally thought as a nuclear test,

No actually it's not.

 

[bernardz]

The Vela incident in 1979 is now more or less universally thought as a nuclear test,

It is thought as a possible nuclear test, it certainly is not universally thought of as a nuclear test,

but there is still considerable doubt over which country did it. It is very likely either a South African or an Israeli (who had nuclear weapons for 13 years at this point) test.

So my question is, what would be the international community's reaction to the test if it was made by one of them? Let's say more data was found in the immediate aftermath to corroborate the test, or even an official acknowledgment (extremely unlikely for israel i realize), or a large leak... The mean doesn't matter much, but within a few months it becomes public knowledge the tests happened and there aren't any doubts over which country did it.

What would be the world's reaction if it was an Israeli test? Or a south african test? Or a joint one?

South Africa would be a shock. Israel would simply be confirmation of what most people already thought. A joint test would be a real shock showing a dramatic change in Israel and South African relations.

But I do not see how it is going to change much.

 

[Clandango]

It is thought as a possible nuclear test, it certainly is not universally thought of as a nuclear test,



South Africa would be a shock. Israel would simply be confirmation of what most people already thought. A joint test would be a real shock showing a dramatic change in Israel and South African relations.

But I do not see how it is going to change much.

I recall there were incidents where Israeli agents helped Nigeria in kidnapping some people. I think Israel basically worked with any states that didn't need actively hate them, while doing begrudging talks behind the scenes with those states that didn't necessarily like or recognize them, but which didn't do more than badtalk them. It isn't the first time authoritarian states found Jewish people to be a convenient boogeyman. This all would cause a bit more of an issue for African states though. I am unsure, but I think many of the northern ones didn't recognize Israel due to seeing them as White colonialists or to get support from Arab states.