What would be the consequences for each side? (at least 4 sides, North Vietnam, South Vietnam, VC/NLF, USA)
Are we assuming that the NVA/VC are massing the same amount of troops and resources? If they attack earlier with the same amount of men they might make some gains because US Troop numbers peaked in 1968 and ARVN numbers would certainly be lower the earlier you go.
An all out invasion from the NVA and a Tet in 1966 or 67 would have interesting consequences.
I would imagine if they go big they would try to overrun a major American base or two. Johnson might bring out the tactical nukes to defend them as considered in 68.
An all out invasion from the NVA and a Tet in 1966 or 67 would have interesting consequences.
I would imagine if they go big they would try to overrun a major American base or two. Johnson might bring out the tactical nukes to defend them as considered in 68.
Assuming the conditions of OTL Tet Offensive are met (mostly in terms of supply routes and infiltration), Tet would have the same impact (in the broadest term). It would make the Vietnam War look "un-winnable" in the eyes of the US public, which would force the US government to sit down and talk.
There is no big psychological shock "of finding out that even though we have apparently been slaughtering the enemy for three years, they have just mounted major attacks on every city" if you attack earlier.