What if the Uzbek Khanate survived? The backstory was that the Golden Horde was starting to collapse in the beginning of 1400's. During that time, Baraq, who was the Khan of the Golden Horde was assassinated and a person named Abu'l-Khayr Khan claimed the throne in 1428 where he established the Uzbek Khanate which took most control of Central Asia and Southern Siberia as well. However, two sons of Barak, who were Kerei and Janibek Khan rebelled against Abu'l-Khayr Khan where they founded the Kazakh Khanate and Abu'l-Khayr Khan ended up being killed but survived by his grandson Muhammad Shaybani that established the Khanate of Bukhara thus making Central Asia divided. But what could've happened in the alternate timeline where the whole Uzbek Khanate remains united? And what impact does it make?

I couldn't find a good map so I used EU4 screenshot to show how the whole region pretty much looked like:
uzbek.JPG
 
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If everything else is the same, it would be conquered by Russia on approximately the same timetable: being a single state changes nothing in the terms of technology and Russian geopolitical interests in the area. To a certain degree it may make conquest easier eliminating a need of conquering independent cities and regions. It is probably reasonable to assume that after some “trimming” the rest of a territory ends up as a formally vassal state similarly to OTL Bukhara and Khiva.
 
The question I’m more interested in is butterflies on India- presumably, you butterfly Shaybanid conquests of Fergana, which butterflies Baburs invasion of India and the establishment of the Mughal sultanate? The technological advantage possessed by turanis at this time, as well as the fact that Babur was invited in by internal factions as the Lodi dynasty crumbled, means I think that some down on his luck amir will be enticed into starting a new dynasty of the Delhi sultanate, but which group could this be? Are they as successful as the Mughals? The whole Indian situation is in flux imho and depending on other butterflies could radically change the history of the subcontinent.
 
The question I’m more interested in is butterflies on India- presumably, you butterfly Shaybanid conquests of Fergana, which butterflies Baburs invasion of India and the establishment of the Mughal sultanate? The technological advantage possessed by turanis at this time, as well as the fact that Babur was invited in by internal factions as the Lodi dynasty crumbled, means I think that some down on his luck amir will be enticed into starting a new dynasty of the Delhi sultanate, but which group could this be? Are they as successful as the Mughals? The whole Indian situation is in flux imho and depending on other butterflies could radically change the history of the subcontinent.

Regarding the Indian situation if no butterflies reach or affect India over the next century, Rana Sanga might successfully oust the Delhi Sultanate out of the eponymous city and restrict them to the Bengal. Prior to the Battle of Kanhwa and Babur’s arrival Sanga was well on his way to destroying the Lodi dynasty after assembling a Rajput confederacy that was the largest in 3 centuries.
 
The question I’m more interested in is butterflies on India- presumably, you butterfly Shaybanid conquests of Fergana, which butterflies Baburs invasion of India and the establishment of the Mughal sultanate? The technological advantage possessed by turanis at this time, as well as the fact that Babur was invited in by internal factions as the Lodi dynasty crumbled, means I think that some down on his luck amir will be enticed into starting a new dynasty of the Delhi sultanate, but which group could this be? Are they as successful as the Mughals? The whole Indian situation is in flux imho and depending on other butterflies could radically change the history of the subcontinent.
I did research and study more into the topic. The Uzbek Khanate at that time was in terrible condition. Abu'l-Khayr was a very terrible Khan and all of the people living in the steppe were constantly dealing with Oirat invasions. Without any Kazakh resistance, Abu'l-Khayr focuses on defending against the Oirats and probably ends up dying in battle as he probably did in 1468. With that, you now have Abu'l-Khayr's childrens taking the throne and probably continuing the same policies as he did. The Uzbek Khanate becomes weakened to the point that you probably would have people fighting with each other for throne over who is rightful to lead the Uzbeks. This would include Kerei and Janibek leading the Kazakhs and doing the same thing that happens in our timeline. But since this threat is about the Uzbek Khanate surviving, then a possible way for it to happen is to have someone that's more competent take control like Shaybani to stabilize things.
 
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Mayhaps the Uzbek Khanate migrate south, unseat the Timurids and take the lands for themselves, centering their capital on Persia in the Mughal Empire fashion? 15th century Iran was majority Sunni at that time so it's probable the Uzbeks may become the next Shahanshahs of Iran - Shaybanid Iran in other words. May or may not butterfly the Safavids. But it'll depends on Uzbek shahs, though that'll be hard to say.
 
Mayhaps the Uzbek Khanate migrate south, unseat the Timurids and take the lands for themselves, centering their capital on Persia in the Mughal Empire fashion? 15th century Iran was majority Sunni at that time so it's probable the Uzbeks may become the next Shahanshahs of Iran - Shaybanid Iran in other words. May or may not butterfly the Safavids. But it'll depends on Uzbek shahs, though that'll be hard to say.
Would a Shaybanid takeover of Iran end up crushing Babur's ambitions? I'd wager that Shayban's struggle against Babur in Transoxiana would be much easier with the resources of Iran at his disposal. Or would he still find difficulty in preventing Babur from escaping into India?
 
Would a Shaybanid takeover of Iran end up crushing Babur's ambitions? I'd wager that Shayban's struggle against Babur in Transoxiana would be much easier with the resources of Iran at his disposal. Or would he still find difficulty in preventing Babur from escaping into India?
Hard to say, anything can happen. But one thing is clear, it's more likely we'll be seeking Shaybanid Iran in that scenario. Other than that, it's difficult for Central Asian Khanates to survive as an independent powers in 19th century, relegated to be vassals to Great Powers in the area like Russia for example.
 
Mayhaps the Uzbek Khanate migrate south, unseat the Timurids and take the lands for themselves, centering their capital on Persia in the Mughal Empire fashion? 15th century Iran was majority Sunni at that time so it's probable the Uzbeks may become the next Shahanshahs of Iran - Shaybanid Iran in other words. May or may not butterfly the Safavids. But it'll depends on Uzbek shahs, though that'll be hard to say.
They already did that in OTL. Shaybani, grandson of Abu'l-Khayr Khan, invaded the Timurids where he established the Khanate of Bukhara. He did attack Persia but ended up dying in the battle of because of it. What you're asking now is what if the Khanate of Bukhara became a world power by taking more lands. My question's point was: What if the Uzbek Khanate remained in control of most present-day of Kazakhstan as it did before 1460's with no Kazakhs rebelling?
 
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