WI USSR splits in two after Lenin’s death – one Stalinist and the other Trotskyist

[PakistaniGuyUK]

What if the succession of Lenin had led to a Trotsky/Stalin split that became much more entrenched in the intelligentsia. In OTL Trotsky had little opposition but Stalin successfully maneuvered to become leader of the USSR. However instead of the USSR maintaining its territorial unity what if Trotsky and Trotskyists end up carving up a rival 'USSR' to the East?

Two USSRs - One Stalinist and the other Trotskyist. POD between 1923 - 1940 for this to happen.

Keeping it as sensible as possible lets say Trotsky is exiled to Siberia but being a charismatic leader manages to garner support amongst other exiled Trotskyists and a breakaway faction of the Red Army sympathetic to him, to carve out a new rival Soviet entity. These Trotskyists consider their country to be the true USSR and continue to call it by this name hoping to reunite all Soviet lands under the banner of Trotskyism (as opposed to Stalinism). The wider world eventually settles with the name East USSR.

Yakutsk becomes the capital, being best-placed strategically. Other major cities are Anadyr, Petropavlovsk, Batagay, and Magadan.

The aims of East USSR until Trotsky as leader become two-fold:
a) Reunite and consolidate USSR under Trotsky and Trotskyism
b) Spread Socialism outside the borders of East USSR

So...

Will Stalinism proceed the same as OTL?
Will the fate of the USSR (Moscow) be altered significantly?
How will WWII be altered?
How will it alter the Cold War if East USSR survives WWII ?

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[Lalli]

Problem is that Trosky hadn't much of support in political circles and probably not too much even in Red Army. If Trotsky tries coup he is going to fail and then executed.

 

[overoceans]

So in this scenario, isn't Trotsky basically being sent east as a prisoner? I'm not quite seeing how he'd be able to gather the support to found a whole new nation, from such an unexalted status.

I think you'd need somehow to posit that the eastern USSR first becomes independent or semi-independent, and then Trotsky flees there, thus remaining unhindered by the Stalinist state.

 

[The Byronic Hero]

Without Vladivostok, Trotsky is screwed. Then again, he's going to fall into Japan's orbit. Maybe he supports the Chi Coms while Stalin supports the Nationalists. That could get interesting.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

Life in the Trotskyite East USSR is going to suck even worse than the Stalinist West USSR
- much poorer agricultural conditions
- Stalin's not going to sell him grain to feed the miners or the soldiers manning the borders
- in the post-Lenin era, Trotsky is just as obsessed with dekulakization and denomadization as Stalin

Maybe he lucks out and Vavilov defects to the East, to help mitigate the inevitable famines and starvation that are going to occur while Trotsky tries to industrialize Yakutia.

 

[Catsmate]

Excellent news for the world's conservatives as the Soviet Union descends into unending uncivil war.