WI USSR does not intervene in Afghanistan

Intervene or invade. The Politburo decides not to use the Red Army to prop up the government, though they provide other assistance. They also stick to this decision.
 
Afghan performance could be better as they don't see their own government as bunch of Soviet stooges. Besides that, the expenses of the war would be significantly reduced and that gives the Kremlin some more financial elbow room in the 80s. Particularly the latter half of the decade wasn't good for their economy. The USSR may still fall, but will definitely last longer, possibly well into the 1990s.
 
More importantly, the détente with China that was happening at this time continues and likely goes further since he doesn't feel like the Soviets are being backstabbing little trolls who are out to encircle China while pretending to be friendly.

Actually, since the Soviets went into Afghanistan because they were concerned about US encirclement, if they knew just how poorly China would react, perhaps they'd realize intervention would result in being more encircled, not less?

So far as I can make out, if the Soviets don't intervene, they won't meet the other Afghan demand for support for their claims on Pakistani territory, so Afghanistan will turn to the US... Probably at about the time that the US is kicked out of Iran. So Afghanistan might get propped up by US bribes and there'd be US bases in the country. On the other hand, China won't let the CIA build a listening post in Sinkiang, which was a real upgrade over their listening post in Iran, so on net the US is in a worse position than OTL. And eventually, Amin or his successors may annoy the US by asking for support in Afghan revanchism against Pakistan as well.

Of course, the US might also be left holding the bag as Amin drove Afghanistan into the dirt, meaning they could be out and some more pro-Soviet group in power before the 80s are done. And if the US didn't like that and sent in the marines... We could end up with the inverse of OTL's Afghan war, with the Soviets aiding freedom fighters against the US.

fasquardon
 
What was the main motivator behind the invasion?
Exporting the revolution, protecting their southern border or maybe just resources? Not sure which the latter would be, though.
 
What was the main motivator behind the invasion?
Exporting the revolution, protecting their southern border or maybe just resources? Not sure which the latter would be, though.

Like I said, they were convinced that the US was moving in and the only way to stop it was to invade themselves.

Keep in mind that China was an effective US ally now, and Iran and Turkey were full US allies - the KGB had convinced itself that the regime in Afghanistan would run the country into the ground and then invite the US in to bail them out, meaning the Soviets would face a solid hostile frontier from Vladivostok to Batumi. The KGB then fed the Soviet politburo with dodgy dossiers (that is to say, they suppressed any hints of evidence that disagreed with their fears) until the leadership finally approved intervention.

(It is worth mentioning as well, the US was heavily involved in Afghanistan from about 1974 or so, meaning the KGB were quite correct to think the US was destabilizing their ally.)

And to be fair, US covert ops and Amin's ham-handedness did look to be set to remove Afghanistan from the Soviet orbit, at least for a little while. But it's not clear that would have really helped the US much or hurt the Soviets much.

fasquardon
 
Afghan performance could be better as they don't see their own government as bunch of Soviet stooges. Besides that, the expenses of the war would be significantly reduced and that gives the Kremlin some more financial elbow room in the 80s. Particularly the latter half of the decade wasn't good for their economy. The USSR may still fall, but will definitely last longer, possibly well into the 1990s.

A USSR that lasts into the 1990s is also in a position to do a deal with China - oil and gas in return for consumer goods would go a long way to keeping the populace content.
 
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