More than likely you still loose a carrier at Midway or at Guadalcanal so Wasp still comes to the Pacific. There is the chance that Wasp or another carrier survives the war.Only one of Yorktown/Lex makes it to Midway. The repair facilities at Pearl probably have to prioritize one ship.
Assuming Midway goes the same with one US carrier lost, there is another deck to throw into the post Midway battles.
Possible butterflies are HMS Victorious staying in the Atlantic or Wasp missing getting torpedoed.
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Possible butterflies are HMS Victorious staying in the Atlantic or Wasp missing getting torpedoed.
The Lexington is almost certainly going to be sent to the west coast to get the same refit that Saratoga had done to her and thus is not available in the South Pacific until November.
POD: Lady Lex's has better luck and manages to avoid the two torpedoes and thus only has some bomb damage (as IOTL) to contend with. Also damage control comes through and successfully manages to deal with the fires etc.
Edit: USS Yorktown gets damaged as IOTL
Give the US the Lexington instead of Hornet at Midway and TF 16 and TF 17 sweep the board at the open action with an alpha strike. Wilson Brown is a lot tougher and smarter than (expletive deleted) Marc Mitscher.
Keep Hornet but make her the reserve and scouting carrier - you know the role Yorktown had OTL. I don't know what dummy thought that was a good idea - have the one carrier that had actually engaged in carrier vs. carrier combat and make her the reserve carrier while the brand new carrier full of pilots who had never flown a combat mission was part of the schwerpunkt.
Not to mention the need to not put undue pressure on the temporary repairs to her bulkheads meant that Yorktown could not maintain high speeds for very long.Nimitz. He was unsure of Fletcher, unsure of the mix of Lexington, Yorktown and Saratoga fliers who were Yorkie's air group and he estimated the Yorktown as 70% combat capable with a still damaged elevator and battered flight deck. He was wrong, but how was he to know Mitscher was no damn good?