...while the USN forces were polishing brass and holystoning the decks (and tipping a few ashore the previous evening). ...
Thats one version I guess, but this point is certainly valid.
Nagumo was also, despite his weaknesses as a carrier force commander, an exceptionally gifted surface warfare officer (he literally helped create IJN torpedo tactics while commandant of the Torpedo School and later as commandant of the Naval War College. He may have screwed the pooch at Midway, but in a surface engagement, with a faster surface fleet, even if it is outgunned, he would be a formidable opponent.
The Japanese can withdraw behind a screen of Long Lances under the command of the man who wrote the book on the subject.
That is not a very attractive possibility
This is why most of the US favoring scenarios start with suprise against the Japanese. Usually a US approach masked by night or rain/haze & guided by radar. The less time the Japanese have to turn away, increase speed/distance & set up the torpedo attacks. The latter are in many variants ad hoc attacks by the destroyer & cruisers rather than top down organized. It depends on exactly how much warning the Japanese have before the US fire becomes overwhelming. Independant attacks are not a large difficulty in themselves since the IJN ships captains were trained for such circumstances, but would be indicative of less time to escape the US gunfire.
A second factor in the torpedo fight is where the US small ships are. How far in the van the US destroyer are when the battle starts, and where they are in relation to the enemy. & the same for the Japanese. There are more than a few examples of the destroyer of one side or both being out of position when the brawl started, leaving torpedo attacks delayed or wasted.
A third factor is the actual hit rate. Under average conditions in the South Pacific; relatively smooth seas, night/day, haze, battle confusion the average hit rate was under 10%. Close range could increase this, long range reduced it. How the accuracy of the torpedos will be in the sea conditions of the north Pacific of 6 December I cant say.