Burton K Wheeler
Moderator
I could see this going either way tbh. But to me, there's a couple things that I think would push the Navy to the Super Tomcat. One: the airframe itself is more capable than every other option by orders of magnitude (excluding NATF). Two: the Navy REALLY hated giving up the range that the Intruder and Tomcat had, but didn't have a whole lot of options. Three: The Super Tomcat can replace the F-14, F-18, A-6, EA-6 and KA-6 in the carrier airwings and do all those jobs every bit as well as the aircraft it's replacing (unlike the Rhino, which is very much a Jack of all Trades, Master of None type design). And finally, the Navy just had one brand new aircraft go completely to shit on them in the form of the A-12. I don't see them willing to gamble on the NATF being smooth sailing at this point.
One last thing, even though I mentioned that the Tomcat can replace the Hornet in the airwing, I don't think it would. At least not right away. The Navy would keep the Hornets as long as possible while developing the NATF as a cost saving measure. Super Tomcats would only replace the Hornet squadrons as it became clear the NATF was going to be severely delayed or cancelled.
So I was a bit confused on the timeline. The Navy actually bailed from the NATF before the A12 was cancelled. The objection was weight. An F-22 derived NATF would have weighed half again what a Tomcat does, and even more than an A6. The advanced Tomcats would have been good until 2015. Of course, the JSF, which started as a program only a couple years afterwards, didn't have operational aircraft until 2015, but the Navy couldn't have known then they needed to get the ball rolling on a replacement immediately.
And the Tomcat wouldn't replace the Hornet. The C/D Hornets start needing replacement even before 2015. I'm thinking the Navy starts a new NATF/A12 type program in the early 1990's and just buys upgraded Hornets to replace the C/Ds. An E/F Not-Super-Hornet.