WI: US Withdrawals from Iraq in 2005

What if for whatever reason, the United States after determining there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and toppling the Hussein regime, the United States installs a provisional government begins a gradual withdrawal beginning in 2005 and ending by the end of 2006?
 
What if for whatever reason, the United States after determining there are no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and toppling the Hussein regime, the United States installs a provisional government begins a gradual withdrawal beginning in 2005 and ending by the end of 2006?

If that withdrawal is still preceded by sending the entire Iraqi Army left by Saddam home and dismissing experienced administrators because of their Ba'ath membership (so pretty much all of them), then Iraq becomes an even worse clusterfuck than IOTL and everybody will start wishing Saddam was back.
 

TinyTartar

Banned
It turns into a disaster that far surpasses the OTL 2006 Shia-Sunni Civil War. The American presence got things mostly under control after the Surge, and probably could have gotten things more under control had a complete pullout not happened when it did (I still hold that had we had the advisors, trainers, and soft power personnel there after the pullout, the Iraqi Army would not have gotten destroyed in 2014).
 
Chaos and violence across an unprepared state, worse than what we've seen and did see. Other Middle Eastern countries have to get involved to stop it spreading (and to stop other Middle Eastern countries getting a proxy). Bush looks like shit, he caused a problem and then dumped it on other people.
 
Iraq disintegrates... the a northern Khurdistan declares independence,the Iranians might very well move into southern Iraq, and the rest is at best a rump Sunni state, at worst we get ISIL a few years early, and at the very worst, a war breaks out if the Saudis move in

Plus the Turks might intervene too, and in 2005 Syria was still in decent shape stability wise, so it might have as well. There were plenty of vultures available to swarm into Iraq if the US isn't there
 
Iraq disintegrates... the a northern Khurdistan declares independence,the Iranians might very well move into southern Iraq, and the rest is at best a rump Sunni state, at worst we get ISIL a few years early, and at the very worst, a war breaks out if the Saudis move in

Plus the Turks might intervene too, and in 2005 Syria was still in decent shape stability wise, so it might have as well. There were plenty of vultures available to swarm into Iraq if the US isn't there

No, the Kurds would be satisfied with de facto independence rather than causing a pointless and costly war with Turkey, Syria and possibly whatever's left of the Iraqi government. What Iraq would be like is 2006-2007 writ large, and you can check my signature TL to see how this goes, though it's not fully finished yet.
 
Iraq goes into a deeper civil war and becomes a human rights disaster that forces the world to pitch in and help which they would have rather allowed the US to do since they did it. But they pulled out. Iran takes more of a lead in it and gains more power and influence. But it temporarily salvages Bush's second term until financial crisis hits.
 
You would see AQI look much more like IS of 2014 conquering territory and creating a caliphate out of the Middle East.

Quite frankly those who think such a pull out would salvage Bush ignore that we would be forced right back in as Obama was as AQI's threat to the global system in terms of economics and national security would force our hand as it forced Obama's into a broken situation, but even more broken then Iraq of late 2014.

Tarter is correct that Obama took a decient situation and flushed it down the toilet, but not just by pulling out of Iraq, but by letting our old enemy AQI regrow into a beast in the fires of the Syrian civil war.

There would be little of Iraq, Syria or the region left after the war as AQI was far better led back then.
 
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You would see AQI look much more like IS of 2014 conquering territory and creating a caliphate out of the Middle East.

Quite frankly those who think such a pull out would salvage Bush ignore that we would be forced right back in as Obama was as AQI's threat to the global system in terms of economics and national security would force our hand as it forced Obama's into a broken situation, but even more broken then Iraq of late 2014.

Tarter is correct that Obama took a decient situation and flushed it down the toilet, but not just by pulling out of Iraq, but by letting our old enemy AQI regrow into a beast in the fires of the Syrian civil war.

Bush wouldn't go back in as it was before, maybe like how we are doing it now with air support. If the massive increase in American casualties does not occur during the 04 and 05 period it is a short term political cure for Bush but not a solution.
In order for Obama to prevent our old enemy from regrowing would require him maintaining a troop presence in Iraq like before he withdrew which was politically impossible for him due to his promise to withdraw and the public unwillingness to stay
 
Bush wouldn't go back in as it was before, maybe like how we are doing it now with air support. If the massive increase in American casualties does not occur during the 04 and 05 period it is a short term political cure for Bush but not a solution.

In order for Obama to prevent our old enemy from regrowing would require him maintaining a troop presence in Iraq like before he withdrew which was politically impossible for him due to his promise to withdraw and the public unwillingness to stay

That is quite frankly wrong as Obama only needed a few thousand advisers behind the wire helping from a secure location logistics and air support and a four star general in Baghdad to talk to Iraqi leaders.

Zero political risk to himself and he still wins the election by the same margin.

The revisionism is the public viewed Iraq as a lost war we had to get out of in 2010 and 2011. The public did not view this as South Vietnam circa 1973. More as South Korea circa 1953 a long war they weren't entirely happy about the expense of that they salvaged a decient outcome from and as thus leaving about what we have there on a few bases the public would have been fine with.

Polling that would be helpful.

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