WI: US thwarts 2012 Benghazi attack?

[BlackDragon98]

The attack still occurs but here is where the POD happens.

2012 Benghazi attack - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Diplomatic Security Service Special Agent Scott Strickland secured Stevens and Sean Smith, an information management officer, in the main building's safe haven.[78][79] The rest of the agents left to retrieve their weapons and tried to return to the main building.[78] The attackers entered the main building and attempted to enter the safe haven.[76] They then spread diesel fuel in the room and set fires.[76][78] Stevens, Smith, and Strickland moved to the nearby bathroom, but then decided to leave the safe haven after being overcome by smoke.[79] Strickland exited through the window, but Stevens and Smith did not follow him."

POD: All three (Stevens, Smith, and Strickland) were able to don gas masks before the smoke overwhelmed them and they were able to evacuate out the window safely. The GRS team is able to retrieve the ambassador and everyone at the compound is able to successfully evacuate to the CIA annex without casualties.

The annex is attacked but this time the US ambassador is alive and the US deploys F-16s, Predator drones, and an AC-130 gunship to support the annex until the US Special Forces team from Naval Air Station Sigonella is able to arrive and evacuate all of them safely to Italy. No sensitive document are lost, as the evacuation is more orderly ITTL, and no Americans are seriously wounded or killed (minor wounds don't count).

How would this have changed things for the US and Libya?

 

[A Piece of History]

For Libya, probably not much. The country had been in chaos since Gaddafi's overthrow and it's downfall would've continued the same way it did in OTL.

For the US, Hillary Clinton is relieved of a massive unwarranted political headache and her chances in the 2016 election are somewhat improved. Conservative media is deprived of a chance to criticize the Obama administration.

 

[KaiserWilhelm]

For Libya, probably not much. The country had been in chaos since Gaddafi's overthrow and it's downfall would've continued the same way it did in OTL.

For the US, Hillary Clinton is relieved of a massive unwarranted political headache and her chances in the 2016 election are somewhat improved. Conservative media is deprived of a chance to criticize the Obama administration.

However, no Benghazi disaster may mean that Obama gives the go ahead to go full steam into Syria in 2013, with the political ramifications involved

 

[A Piece of History]

However, no Benghazi disaster may mean that Obama gives the go ahead to go full steam into Syria in 2013, with the political ramifications involved

Wouldn't Russia have interceded like they did in OTL?

 

[KaiserWilhelm]

Wouldn't Russia have interceded like they did in OTL?

Russia only interceded after it became apparent Obama wasn’t willing to strike in Syria, I think a more decisive President Obama could project enough strength to launch a devastating air campaign

 

[Aghasverov]

Fox News would've had to find something else to talk about for four-odd years...

 

[Questerr]

The attack still occurs but here is where the POD happens.

2012 Benghazi attack - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Diplomatic Security Service Special Agent Scott Strickland secured Stevens and Sean Smith, an information management officer, in the main building's safe haven.[78][79] The rest of the agents left to retrieve their weapons and tried to return to the main building.[78] The attackers entered the main building and attempted to enter the safe haven.[76] They then spread diesel fuel in the room and set fires.[76][78] Stevens, Smith, and Strickland moved to the nearby bathroom, but then decided to leave the safe haven after being overcome by smoke.[79] Strickland exited through the window, but Stevens and Smith did not follow him."

POD: All three (Stevens, Smith, and Strickland) were able to don gas masks before the smoke overwhelmed them and they were able to evacuate out the window safely. The GRS team is able to retrieve the ambassador and everyone at the compound is able to successfully evacuate to the CIA annex without casualties.

The annex is attacked but this time the US ambassador is alive and the US deploys F-16s, Predator drones, and an AC-130 gunship to support the annex until the US Special Forces team from Naval Air Station Sigonella is able to arrive and evacuate all of them safely to Italy. No sensitive document are lost, as the evacuation is more orderly ITTL, and no Americans are seriously wounded or killed (minor wounds don't count).

How would this have changed things for the US and Libya?

Where’s this AC-130 coming from? Or the Predator drones for that matter? There’s F-16’s in Italy, but the fighting at the compound was well within “danger close”. One bomb just slightly off target, and they’ll kill the defenders themselves.

Also where is your evidence of a special ops team at Sigonella? The closest I’ve heard of was the FAST team at Rota in Spain, but they couldn’t have arrived in time.

 

[BlackDragon98]

Where’s this AC-130 coming from? Or the Predator drones for that matter? There’s F-16’s in Italy, but the fighting at the compound was well within “danger close”. One bomb just slightly off target, and they’ll kill the defenders themselves.

Also where is your evidence of a special ops team at Sigonella? The closest I’ve heard of was the FAST team at Rota in Spain, but they couldn’t have arrived in time.

"A U.S. Army commando unit was sent to Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily, Italy the night of the attack but did not deploy to Benghazi."
From the same link in the OP.
"By 4:30 p.m. ET, Pentagon officials had informed Defense Secretary Leon Panetta about the attack. The Pentagon ordered an unmanned aerial vehicle that was in the air conducting surveillance on militant camps to fly over Benghazi. The drone arrived at 11:10 p.m. local time (5:10 p.m. ET) and began providing a video feed to Washington."
"At the same time, a JSOC operator was using a hand-held device displaying images from a Predator drone above, which had been sent by the DOD's US Africa Command after request."
Same link

Ever heard of laser guided smart bombs?
It's not new tech even for 2012.

There were rumors of an AC-130 that could have been deployed.
Most likely the Predator drones and F-16s would have handled the job.

 

[Deleted member 141906]

Isn't this current politics?

 

[overoceans]

Isn't this current politics?

Yeah, it's pretty hard to talk about the long-term rsmifications of Benghazi without getting into its impact on the 2016 election.

 

[Questerr]

"A U.S. Army commando unit was sent to Naval Air Station Sigonella in Sicily, Italy the night of the attack but did not deploy to Benghazi."
From the same link in the OP.
"By 4:30 p.m. ET, Pentagon officials had informed Defense Secretary Leon Panetta about the attack. The Pentagon ordered an unmanned aerial vehicle that was in the air conducting surveillance on militant camps to fly over Benghazi. The drone arrived at 11:10 p.m. local time (5:10 p.m. ET) and began providing a video feed to Washington."
"At the same time, a JSOC operator was using a hand-held device displaying images from a Predator drone above, which had been sent by the DOD's US Africa Command after request."
Same link

Ever heard of laser guided smart bombs?
It's not new tech even for 2012.

There were rumors of an AC-130 that could have been deployed.
Most likely the Predator drones and F-16s would have handled the job.

How does that commando unit deploy to Benghazi? Do they parachute at night into a city with zero prepared landing zones and hostile forces on the ground? Do they fly into the airport and then convoy in, running into the same delays and problems the QRF in country already were running into?

Just because the Predator was on site, that doesn’t mean it was armed. Not all Predators fly with weapons mounted, especially by AFRICOM, which often doesn't have the permission to fly armed aircraft in countries.

Laser guided bombs still have a CEP measured in meters and with how close the fighting was in Benghazi, that would be enough for a near-miss to kill the defenders as well as the attackers.

And the rumors of an AC-130 being available were just that: rumors. There’s no solid evidence to support it.

 

[BlackDragon98]

How does that commando unit deploy to Benghazi? Do they parachute at night into a city with zero prepared landing zones and hostile forces on the ground? Do they fly into the airport and then convoy in, running into the same delays and problems the QRF in country already were running into?

Chopper infil and exfil?
The annex was big enough to land a Chinook.
Black Hawks for fire suppression and a Chinook for transport should be enough.

Just because the Predator was on site, that doesn’t mean it was armed. Not all Predators fly with weapons mounted, especially by AFRICOM, which often doesn't have the permission to fly armed aircraft in countries.

USAF was deploying Hellfire armed Preds around the same time. Chances are, that one circling had Hellfires onboard.

Laser guided bombs still have a CEP measured in meters and with how close the fighting was in Benghazi, that would be enough for a near-miss to kill the defenders as well as the attackers.

The defenders were inside a walled compound (CIA annex). Tell the defenders to get down, take cover and then drop the bomb. A 250 lb guided should do the job well enough.

 

[Questerr]

Chopper infil and exfil?
The annex was big enough to land a Chinook.
Black Hawks for fire suppression and a Chinook for transport should be enough.


USAF was deploying Hellfire armed Preds around the same time. Chances are, that one circling had Hellfires onboard.


The defenders were inside a walled compound (CIA annex). Tell the defenders to get down, take cover and then drop the bomb. A 250 lb guided should do the job well enough.

And there’s evidence helicopter support was available where? What are you basing these “chances” on?

That “walled compound“ was made out of bricks, not hardened materials. A near miss from even a 250 lb bomb can take it down.

 

[BlackDragon98]

And there’s evidence helicopter support was available where? What are you basing these “chances” on?

That “walled compound“ was made out of bricks, not hardened materials. A near miss from even a 250 lb bomb can take it down.

The SF team is departing from Signoella. The place is packed with choppers, even today.

 

[RanulfC]

The attack still occurs but here is where the POD happens.

2012 Benghazi attack - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

"Diplomatic Security Service Special Agent Scott Strickland secured Stevens and Sean Smith, an information management officer, in the main building's safe haven.[78][79] The rest of the agents left to retrieve their weapons and tried to return to the main building.[78] The attackers entered the main building and attempted to enter the safe haven.[76] They then spread diesel fuel in the room and set fires.[76][78] Stevens, Smith, and Strickland moved to the nearby bathroom, but then decided to leave the safe haven after being overcome by smoke.[79] Strickland exited through the window, but Stevens and Smith did not follow him."

POD: All three (Stevens, Smith, and Strickland) were able to don gas masks before the smoke overwhelmed them and they were able to evacuate out the window safely. The GRS team is able to retrieve the ambassador and everyone at the compound is able to successfully evacuate to the CIA annex without casualties.

The annex is attacked but this time the US ambassador is alive and the US deploys F-16s, Predator drones, and an AC-130 gunship to support the annex until the US Special Forces team from Naval Air Station Sigonella is able to arrive and evacuate all of them safely to Italy. No sensitive document are lost, as the evacuation is more orderly ITTL, and no Americans are seriously wounded or killed (minor wounds don't count).

How would this have changed things for the US and Libya?

Lot of assumptions here but not much change other than maybe Hillary gets elected instead of Trump due to less flack and ammunition for the rights attack ads.

How does that commando unit deploy to Benghazi? Do they parachute at night into a city with zero prepared landing zones and hostile forces on the ground? Do they fly into the airport and then convoy in, running into the same delays and problems the QRF in country already were running into?

Chopper infil and exfil?
The annex was big enough to land a Chinook.
Black Hawks for fire suppression and a Chinook for transport should be enough.

Chinook top speed is around 188mph, the Blackhawk is over 200 but would have to limit to the Chinook speed. All well and good? No, the distance between Sigonella and Benghazi is 468 miles and the range of the Chinook is only 300 miles which was why the cited "lack of tanker support" is so critical to any relief attempt. Putting everyone on Blackhawks only gets you 62 miles closer before you run out of fuel so still no help. Even if they manage something and arrive in time for the secondary attacks they would have to try and find a landing spot, (the annex is to small) and be in constant danger from small arms and MANPAD fire over enclosed spaces.

Lastly the team did not arrive at Sigonella until the attack was already over so they would be no help anyway.

Just because the Predator was on site, that doesn’t mean it was armed. Not all Predators fly with weapons mounted, especially by AFRICOM, which often doesn't have the permission to fly armed aircraft in countries.

USAF was deploying Hellfire armed Preds around the same time. Chances are, that one circling had Hellfires onboard.

No it wasn't armed and that point was brought up multiple times.

Laser guided bombs still have a CEP measured in meters and with how close the fighting was in Benghazi, that would be enough for a near-miss to kill the defenders as well as the attackers.

The defenders were inside a walled compound (CIA annex). Tell the defenders to get down, take cover and then drop the bomb. A 250 lb guided should do the job well enough.

The attackers were inside the walls of the compound since the initial attack, (@9:40pm local) literally inside the building with the defenders by 10:30pm, (still several hours before F-16s could even arrive in best case conditions) and the secondary security team had arrived and the attackers withdrawn by around 11:30 local. Secondary attacks began about 11:40 and the security forces withdrew to the Annex by 11:50 but no attackers had been identified to return fire on when the gates to the annex were secured.

Your 'window' is approximately three (3) hours at best and Air Support and or Airborne relief could not have arrived before about 11:30pm local so would have been of little use in the main attack.

The attacks on the Annex continued but it was stated that it was difficult to identify and locate the attackers. Simply dropping random 500lbs bombs, (we don't have 250's in the inventory anymore as far as I'm aware) on the streets and houses isn't going to be effective assuming they would get permission to do so which is unlikely under the circumstances. (The DoD has said several times the situation was NOT such that it warranted random or heavy air support fire AT ALL due the lack of obvious point-targets to engage)

I note there is a lot of speculation that if the F-16s had simply roared low the attackers in full AB they would have scattered but this would depend if they were experienced militia or not. Most speculation seems to be that they were indeed experienced and this is assumed they would be afraid of American air power which is pretty much the opposite of the case here since they attackers are embedded in positions that would be difficult for the US air power to attack. (Note the surrounding civilian housing and public spaces)

The scenario doesn't fit the facts on the ground or in the region I'm afraid.

Randy

 

[Questerr]

The SF team is departing from Signoella. The place is packed with choppers, even today.

Chinooks and Blackhawks? Or Seahawks? And how many of them were ready to go for combat operations needed on the spot without any spin up or prep work?