WI US refuses to airlift/sealift Chinese Nationalist troops to North or Northeast China?

Without American lift to North China and Manchuria in 1945, the Chinese Nationalists would do

  • worse than OTL

    Votes: 4 22.2%
  • better than OTL

    Votes: 14 77.8%

  • Total voters
    18

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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WI the US refused to airlift/sealift Chinese Nationalist troops from western China deep into Japanese occupied northern China and Manchuria after VJ Day?

The US is still willing to give the Chinese Nationalist regime all the arms, credits and reconstruction goods it did in OTL.

The US Order #1, instead of directing Japanese troops south of the Great Wall to hold their positions until the arrival Nationalist troops to take their surrender, directs the Japanese troops in north of the Yellow River to march to a few coastal concentration points in Shandong and Hebei provinces, for disarmament by contingents of US Marines and follow on embarkation and repatriation.

Do Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalists do worse than OTL in political competition or military conflict with the Communists or better than OTL?

I'll define terms:

The OTL "baseline" is the Chinese Civil War escalates in 45-46 and the CCP defeats the KMT on the mainland by late 1949.

The Nationalists doing "better" than OTL is them ending up with more territory than OTL (so more than Taiwan) or suffering fewer casualties, or holding on to mainland territory for longer than OTL.

The Nationalists doing "worse" than OTL is them losing all their mainland territory earlier than OTL or at a higher cost in casualties.

I encourage you to answer the poll and explain your rationale for your vote.
 

thorr97

Banned
In OTL plenty of skilled military advisers warned the Peanut that he was throwing away his best troops if he sent them up there. Chiang Kai-shek being the arrogant twit that he was, ignored that advice and... threw away his best troops by sending them up there. A refusal by the US to assist in the throwing away might aggravate the Peanut but it'd leave more US trained troops available to fight the Communists where the Nationalists could win.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Donor
Monthly Donor
In OTL plenty of skilled military advisers warned the Peanut that he was throwing away his best troops if he sent them up there. Chiang Kai-shek being the arrogant twit that he was, ignored that advice and... threw away his best troops by sending them up there. A refusal by the US to assist in the throwing away might aggravate the Peanut but it'd leave more US trained troops available to fight the Communists where the Nationalists could win.

To be a devil's advocate, what about the contrary arguments?

With the KMT troops not occupying points in the north, even with American orders to the Japanese to assemble at coastal points, more weapons are from smaller Japanese units are likely to fall into Communist hands.

Without having to deal KMT-Japanese resistance and offensives in the north, the Communists should be able to overpower local powerholders, tax local resources, set up an administration and enroll more party members and soldiers in their forces more quickly than OTL.

Without the KMT offensives towards the north, the CCP may feel they can get by with existing cadre in the north and new locally raised cadre, allowing them to keep guerrilla bases and operations going in the center and south [which they had evacuate to the north in OTL], even if those areas are under massive KMT pressure.

Without the visible US support for the northward extension of its power, the KMT has less leverage with the USSR. The KMT will also be less relevant to Soviet interests. With the CCP gaining uncontested control of Manchuria much sooner, the CCP is the beneficiary of cross-border trade and in control territories between Soviet occupied cities, railways and ports. Against that, the KMT have no relevant assets. This, plus the demonstrated lack of the US and KMT being on the same page, could make the Soviets feel it's "safe" to do more trade and aid with the CCP earlier.

Could that all add up to tilt the balance of resources and prestige further away from the KMT in 45 and 46 to give the CCP a strong starting position from which to compete with the KMT and come to national power by 47 or 48 or earlier in 49'?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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McCord paper conclusion.gif
 
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