WI:US only wins independence.

Gan

Banned
What if, in the Treaty of Paris 1783, the Thirteen Colonies only gained independence, but no extra territory? Basically they don't recive the territory making up OTL states of Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.

What are the results, depending on the scenario? How possible is this outcome?

Scenario 1: Britain keeps the territory.

Scenario 2: It's ceded to France.

Scenario 3: It's ceded to Spain.
 
The reason Britain ceded that territory to the US was because 1) the US already had some control over some of that territory, 2) it was inevitable the US was going to try to control all of it, 3) Britain did not see any benefit to giving it to its European enemies, and 4) by being generous to the US it could heal some of the wounds of the war and hope one day the countries could reconcile.

The western boundaries of the states are also in dispute during this time. Much of Ohio, Kentucky and other states are claimed by Pennsylvania, Virginia, and others at this time. Insisting on our modern boundaries will cause those states to feel they have been cheated.

The end result is a furious United States who feel that they have been robbed of their proper claims.

None of the European powers are able to properly defend their claims to the territory. So US citizens enter the territory anyway, gradually building up de facto US control anyway.

Once the Napoleonic Wars begin, the US is likely to invade the area to take advantage of the conflict. Maybe not in Washington's presidency, but probably in Adam's or Jefferson's. The exact time will depend on who is the controlling power.

If it is France, the US might be much friendly to a Republican France than IOTL. If the new republic agrees to relinquish its claims east of the Mississippi to the US for a friendship treaty, declaration of war on Britain, or for money, the US might get the entire area for free. Since Napoleon sold the Louisian Purchase in 1803, once he gets power, he might sell that and any claims it had east of the river as well.

If not, by 1805, the US is likely at war with someone and has de facto control of most of the area, at least compared to any European power. If Spain is the controlling power, the US might grab additional territory than the one it gained in the real Treaty of Paris. It might go for New Orleans and Florida as well.

In the long term, I don't think it changes things much except it poisons US-British relations more severely.
 
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