WI: US Nuclear Weapons Operational One Year Earlier

viperjock

sloreck said:
The problem with starting B-29 operations with atomic weapons from the Marianas in late 1944 is that the USA does not have Iwo Jima. Having Iwo both eliminates some Japanese early warning as well as providing an emergency landing strip. OTL the first emergency landing there was even before island was completely secured. Of course having Okinawa is even better. Also in late 1944 Japanese home defense from a fighter standpoint is not as crushed as it would be the next August. Given the problems the B-29 had, and silverplates were not immune from this, a mission from the Marianas in late 1944 has a lot of risks even if the Japanese don't shoot them down.

Assuming that the US does drop a bomb on Japan. I expect that the Japanese would look at where they are - US forces and forces in SEA are atill away from the core and also seized areas. I expect that once the Japanese twig to what a B-29 can do, you'll have Kamikazes crashing in to B-29s every time they appear. Also in late fall 1944 Japanese cities have barely been touched by strategic bombing, the atomic bomb was icing on a large cake of destruction.

I am not one who says that Russia piling on in August 1944 (between Hirsohima and Nagasaki) was the deciding factor. For sure as loing as the USSR is fighting Germany in fall, 1944 they are NOT going to be attacking Japan. The agreement they had with the USA was coming in 90 days after Germany surrendered, and frankly while still trying to crush Germany the Soviets can't do anything to help. In fact if they do join the war in the Pacific, then the lend-lease that was shipped on Soviet freighters fro the US across the Pacific goes away.
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Sloreck, you made some points!
I believe the US is going to study the Silverplate missions against Germany and adjust their planning for nuking Japan.
The early raids against Japan in late 1944 were not that effective OTL. There will be greater pressure on the 20th Air Force to get results in TTL. So maybe we get a nuclear attack against Japan beginning in the Spring of 1945?
Could the Iwo Jima Operation be moved up by delaying the Philippines campaign? If Roosevelt and Marshall know that the bomb will be ready in the summer of 1944 would the Marianas and the seizure of Iwo Jima take precedence over MacArthur making his great return? Iwo Jima is captured in November 1944 and the P-51s brought up there to provide fighter support to the B-29s. In February 1945 the US Navy's Essex class carriers begin operations off the Japanese coast. Silverplate B-29s escorted by Mustangs based out of Iwo Jima carry out their mission.
 

fastmongrel

For a delivery aircraft if Silverplate B29s arent available for Aug 44 how about an Avro Lincoln. It first flew June 44 but a very leisuely test programme (Lancaster development and production took priority) meant the first production version didnt fly until Feb 45

Performance figures from Wiki
Lincoln mkI
B29

The Lincoln is a generation behind the B29 but a version stripped in a similar fashion to the Lancaster B MkIII specials used by 617 Sqdn to drop Grand Slam should do the job.
 
Catsmate

Catsmate

MattII said:
German soldiers weren't stupid, if that thing's in the air for more than 30 seconds they're going to start-over-setting their times and smacking it with complete rounds rather than shrapnel.
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I'm extremely skeptical about the ability of any AA gunner with WW2 tech to hit a five square metre target.
 

MattII

Catsmate said:
I'm extremely skeptical about the ability of any AA gunner with WW2 tech to hit a five square metre target.
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Depends how long they've got. If it's a parachute bomb, they might have several minutes, in which time I would expect, if not a direct hit, then at least one or two very near misses.
 

fastmongrel

MattII said:
Depends how long they've got. If it's a parachute bomb, they might have several minutes, in which time I would expect, if not a direct hit, then at least one or two very near misses.
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I dont think a parachute would slow down the bomb that much. Its more of an air brake than a chute to give the bomber an extra 20 secs to get some distance.
 

MattII

fastmongrel said:
I dont think a parachute would slow down the bomb that much. Its more of an air brake than a chute to give the bomber an extra 20 secs to get some distance.
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If we're talking about a Lancaster, I think you're going to want a bit more than 20 seconds delay in there.
 

Carl Schwamberger

Took a quick look at the PE for the 88mm FLAK ammo at a range of 3300 meters. Even with a regiment of 36 cannon the odds of getting a hit are ridiculously low. Add in horizontal movement movement from wind and oscillation. and changes in velocity in several directions... 3300 meters is near the optimal detonation height for the devices built by the US in 1945. The actual range would be above that with a further increase in PE. I'm also extremely skeptical a FLAK battery, battalion, or regiment commander would see the need to fire at such a target, even if he could see it.
 

Bernard Woolley

MattII said:
Depends how long they've got. If it's a parachute bomb, they might have several minutes, in which time I would expect, if not a direct hit, then at least one or two very near misses.
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Funnily enough that was a concern with the lay-down mode of the WE.177B and C. There would be a very slight delay from hitting the ground before initiation and the weapon designers were concerned that it might be possible for someone to shoot at the weapon.
However it seems that it would only give a hapless Soviet soldier enough time to say the equivalent of 'oh sh...'
 
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