I assume most of us know one of the main reasons for the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was the US cutting off oil to Japan because of the Japanese war in China. Now, I have two things for you guys to debate upon, what would have made the US isolationist enough not to care about China in the late 30's, and what is a general outline of what might have happened afterwards? If you guys can figure this out, ill attempt to write a scenario over what could have happened, called "A few more Drops of Oil".
WI US never cut off Japans oil
- Thread starter General Mosh
- Start date
Given the influence of the China lobby and the fact that Japan, verging on going bankrupt, couldn't pay for the oil much longer...
I realize this, which is why its only a few more drops of oil (hint hint
), but how would the US have become more isolationist? Is there a remote possibility maybe FDR doesn't become president, or dies in office a few years into his term, allowing for a more isolationist, maybe even vaguely racist president, who doesnt care about what happens in Asia takes power. Or maybe FDR could have a chance accident in his childhood.This, this, this.
Even if the US (and Allies) didn't place oil and other materials under embargo, Japan would have rapidly begun to run out of foreign exchange available to pay for what it needed. Arguably, the far more subtle and less trumpeted financial blockade of Japan by the US could well have been more effective overall than the actual restrictions on physical goods.
Ultimately, Japan would have had to export goods or gold to the US in order to secure dollars. It had to be dollars, as the UK's Sterling area was locked down to conserve its own foreign exchange, and dollars were the only major currency widely acceptable in open trade at this point.
Unfortunately for Japan, it didn't have anything to trade to obtain those dollars, especially not while it was focused on supplying its own war in China. It's best dollar-earning good was silk, but the introduction of nylon (particularly for stockings) eroded that down badly. Textiles in general wouldn't have worked either, because that would have required the import of cotton from the US or elsewhere.
Without the actual oil embargo, Japan might have stumbled along longer, but that would ultimately mean either a catastrophic collapse in living standards, or precipitously dangerous decline in military supply. There was no good choice save abandoning the war, but that was of course politically unacceptable.
Ok, what if with FDR dead, the US is not yet out of the depression when the Japanese war with China comes along. Japan had a gold standard in place in OTL at the time I believe, so the yen was frozen at 0.50 US cents. So, what if because the US dollar has fallen, the Japanese yen becomes worth more than the USD after a second massive financial collapse in 1939. The US also has an isolationist president in place at the time. This gives Japan the chance to buy itself a whole hell of a huge oil reserve, and continue its war in China. As the US comes apart at the seams, and is unable to do the lend lease agreement to the Soviet Union, allowing the Soviet Union to fall. Britain is left standing alone. Japan takes this chance to seize the Dutch East Indies, Singapore, Hong Kong, and the Phillipines. The US is unable to do anything with rising unrest and an economy in shambles. Japan stops trade with the US, and with the USD and pound pretty much done, the Reichsmark becomes the most powerful currency in the world. At this point, Japan concludes a formal alliance with the Third Reich. What happens now? Will the US come out of its freefall? What going to happen with Australia, India, and Canada?
Snake Featherston
Banned
This is rather hard to do unless you avert that one general's insubordinate invasion of Indochina. Without that provocation the China Lobby will be protesting loudly for no results and the USA has no need to consider war with Japan, while Japan will still be winning all its battles in China without any means to win the war. The decision to cut off oil stemmed from that and with WWII in full swing the USA will be focusing totally and myopically on the Atlantic just as IOTL and thus not caring about Asia one way or the other, bar the aforementioned China Lobby who will have no luck at all trying to parlay their mixture of financial and humanitarian concern into an actual war.
I like this. What are your thoughts on the idea i posted above?
Snake Featherston
Banned
FDR not being in charge of the USA during the Depression would change too much to be directly relevant to an OTL-style scenario.
Well, yeah that makes sense. So if FDR wasn't in charge it would probably turn into a more "US and UK stand weak and alone" scenario. I think ill look into both ideas.
The problem is that none of this changes the US commitment to the so-called Open Door policy on China nor is FDR's absence likely to do so...
The problem is that none of this changes the US commitment to the so-called Open Door policy on China nor is FDR's absence likely to do so...
I apologize for my ignorance, but what do you mean by open door policy?
China not being conquered, partitioned, split up by colonial powers or otherwise unavailable for trade.
BlondieBC
Banned
FDR was closer to a King than a President. Some of the before after:
1) Gold Standard. Fiat Currency.
2) Individuals, Charities, or Individual states take care of people down on their luck. FDR brings in the modern Welfare state (admittedly much expanded later on).
3) Generally isolationist policies. USA Empire.
4) Strict interpretation of commerce clause. Expansive interpretation of the commerce clause.
5) Socialist party on outside. Most of the goals of the Socialist Platform of 1912 are law by 1944.
6) Volunteer Army. Draft base peacetime army.
Love him or hate him. He change America more than any President besides Lincoln. And yes, Washington was important as President, but FDR had more impact as President.
Oh, ok. Well, what about the FDR's absense because if a highly isolationist, and slightly racist guy, who couldn't give a crap about China, and is in power in a terrible economic recession, in which the US cant bear not to get all that Japanese yen (worth more than the dollar in TTL) by cutting them off from oil, therefore Japan is actually more powerful economically than usual even without the East Indies.
Since the US policy on China went back more than half a century...no.
FDR's absence would not make a difference, least of all to the businesses, unions, diplomats or everyone else convinced that trade with China was a wonderful thing which must be preserved.
FDR's absence would not make a difference, least of all to the businesses, unions, diplomats or everyone else convinced that trade with China was a wonderful thing which must be preserved.
Ok, but without FDR, wouldn't the US have never left the depression, or at least not early enough? Making sure that the US was in no position to provoke Japan, especially when Japan's currency in TTL is stronger than the USD
The Depression means nothing given the startling number of Americans convinced that trade with China was of substantial economic benefit.
If anything it makes such commerce something the US is even more likely to cling to. As for the US 'provoking' Japan, I'm afraid the US first acted in response to Japanese aggression before FDR even ran for the White House so that doesn't work.
On this idea of the yen being stronger than the dollar, with the US demanding payment in hard currency and thus taking any Japanese gold away steadily. Assuming the US agrees to deal even in gold...
If anything it makes such commerce something the US is even more likely to cling to. As for the US 'provoking' Japan, I'm afraid the US first acted in response to Japanese aggression before FDR even ran for the White House so that doesn't work.
On this idea of the yen being stronger than the dollar, with the US demanding payment in hard currency and thus taking any Japanese gold away steadily. Assuming the US agrees to deal even in gold...
Cook
Banned
American Isolationism really only concerned Europe; America throughout the interwar period was heavily involved in Asian affairs due to trade commitments and colonial interests. For America to be less committed would require, at the very least, the very early and full independence of The Philippines.
Ironically enough, this was recommended in one of the Rainbow war plans; America’s involvement in the Philippines and China was recognised as likely to lead to war with Japan but the necessary commitment of forces to defend the islands wasn’t being made, so the war planners said that either more resources needed to be committed or America had to abandon the Philippines and withdraw from Asia and the Western Pacific.
Ironically enough, this was recommended in one of the Rainbow war plans; America’s involvement in the Philippines and China was recognised as likely to lead to war with Japan but the necessary commitment of forces to defend the islands wasn’t being made, so the war planners said that either more resources needed to be committed or America had to abandon the Philippines and withdraw from Asia and the Western Pacific.
So it appears it is not very possible for a TL which has America not cutting off Japan's oil?