That's been the argument postwar, & I don't believe it. Japan wasn't just on the brink of defeat, she was on the brink of an abyss. U.S. aircraft were well capable of cutting off movement of fuel & food supplies between areas of Japan, by knocking out a few key bridges & tunnels (16 in all, IIRC), or so says the USSBS summary I've seen.Johnrankins said:either the bomb is dropped or a full scale invasion would be necessary.
And how long would it take for the B-29s to burn every Japanese city of any consequence to cinders, Bomb or no Bomb?
In short, Japan was on the edge of "starving in the dark", as winter came. How far was she from revolution? How long before even Hirohito realized he'd lost & needed to call a halt before his country, his people, saw irrevocable ruin?
The bigger question on the Bomb is the Cold War: if it isn't used, does this lead Stalin to think he can play cowboy & have the U.S. lack the nerve to use it on SU?