WI US Military deployed to Bosnia?

What If the Public reacted differently to the Srebrenica massacre with regards to Clinton, and he sent US forces to the region to force stability in the region as a result?

What would be the Ramifications for

the 1996 Election?

the Sept 11 attacks?

The Balkans?

Russia?
 
What If the Public reacted differently to the Srebrenica massacre with regards to Clinton, and he sent US forces to the region to force stability in the region as a result?

What would be the Ramifications for

the 1996 Election?

the Sept 11 attacks?

The Balkans?

Russia?

DBWI...

First off, I think Clinton would definitely lose 1996 elections. Vietnam syndrome wasn't over, and an intervention in Balkans (which would result in HUGE casualties as ex-Yugoslav forces were entirely different from Iraqi Army in 1991) would surely bring memories of that back into mind. So, it's Bob Dole in 1996.

Second, there's no possibility of 9/11 in this ATL. After the Moslem world has seen that US may intervene on Moslem side there will be rapid rapproachment between the US and Islamic world. Such maniacs as Bin Laden would lose support.
 
DBWI...

First off, I think Clinton would definitely lose 1996 elections. Vietnam syndrome wasn't over, and an intervention in Balkans (which would result in HUGE casualties as ex-Yugoslav forces were entirely different from Iraqi Army in 1991) would surely bring memories of that back into mind. So, it's Bob Dole in 1996.

More like Somalia syndrome.

Might've happened if you butterfly Bush's intervention there.
 

Angel Heart

Banned
(...)ex-Yugoslav forces were entirely different from Iraqi Army in 1991(...)

The only real army you had in this war were the remnants of the JNA which Milosevic called back to Serbia before the war ended. The others were just provisional rag-tag militas, so nothing the US couldn't handle.
The problem with Srebrenica was that the local UN troops were hopelessly outnumbered by the Serbian milita which would have made an intervention a suicide mission.

My humble opinion: If US-Forces were stationed from the beginning of the war instead of the useless Europeans who can't do anything on their own, I think that the war would have ended much earlier, at least every side would have accepted the Vance-Owen Plan.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
My humble opinion: If US-Forces were stationed from the beginning of the war instead of the useless Europeans who can't do anything on their own, I think that the war would have endet much earlier, at least every side would have accepted the Vance-Owen Plan.

That's really unfair. Just look at the Medak Pocket, where the Canadians engaged in one of the largest firefights UN forces have ever been in since Korea. (not European, but you seem a bit Ameri-centric)
Or the amount of carrier ops the French flew of Foch.
Or the Dutch F-16, which downed a MiG-29 while escorting in Canadian Hornets for an air-to-ground raid.
Or the SAS, JTF2, and Foreign Legion units that were doing counter-sniper work all over that god-forsaken hellhole.
Or even the Bundeswehr, who was deployed for the first time outside their native Germany and performed superbly.

No. The Europeans did fine, and that's coming from an American.
 
so, POD is bush wins a second term. During his 2nd term, in response to reports of atrocities in Bosnia, what he does is send US Forces to "safe Zones", which unlike OTL, are actually safe.

Bascially, the (fictional) Kissinger plan is approved and the Bosnian war ends quicker than OTL.

This sets a precedent for Rwanda as a butterfly.

This also means that the chances for 9/11 are reduced.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
so, POD is bush wins a second term. During his 2nd term, in response to reports of atrocities in Bosnia, what he does is send US Forces to "safe Zones", which unlike OTL, are actually safe.

Bascially, the (fictional) Kissinger plan is approved and the Bosnian war ends quicker than OTL.

This sets a precedent for Rwanda as a butterfly.

This also means that the chances for 9/11 are reduced.

The funny thing is, I could see the Canadian Airborne Regiment surviving.

They got disbanded after they went apeshit and killed that poor kid in Somalia. With a more standup-type fight awaiting the NATO forces (if I'm getting this right) in Yugoslavia, then the Canadian Forces would probably deploy the Regiment.

This would remove the main reason behind their disbandment.

I'm not trying to go Canadian-wank, but it's pretty much the only unit that would be on 'get-up and go' status to get there quick in the early-to-mid 90s. And the mechanized element of the Regiment was still in Europe at the time.
 

Ian the Admin

Administrator
Donor
My humble opinion: If US-Forces were stationed from the beginning of the war instead of the useless Europeans who can't do anything on their own, I think that the war would have ended much earlier, at least every side would have accepted the Vance-Owen Plan.

Nationalist insults aren't welcome here. Watch it.
 
No, he was not being nationalist, he was only saying that the European nations were useless in Bosnia.
 

Angel Heart

Banned
No, he was not being nationalist, he was only saying that the European nations were useless in Bosnia.

Right, but I can't blame the Boss since I wrote that the Europeans can't do anything on their own and that 's all. To me it seems that the war in Bosnia only came to an end because of the American intervention. The EC failed to stop a war in their very backyard. Srebrenica was a tragic failiure since the Europeans failed to send in more troops. If instead of the Europeans the US would have been in charge I think they would have preformed much better.
 

Angel Heart

Banned
That's really unfair. Just look at the Medak Pocket, where the Canadians engaged in one of the largest firefights UN forces have ever been in since Korea. (not European, but you seem a bit Ameri-centric)
Or the amount of carrier ops the French flew of Foch.
Or the Dutch F-16, which downed a MiG-29 while escorting in Canadian Hornets for an air-to-ground raid.
Or the SAS, JTF2, and Foreign Legion units that were doing counter-sniper work all over that god-forsaken hellhole.
Or even the Bundeswehr, who was deployed for the first time outside their native Germany and performed superbly.

No. The Europeans did fine, and that's coming from an American.

This might have been impressive indeed. But it was not enough to stop the war and the mass murder.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
This might have been impressive indeed. But it was not enough to stop the war and the mass murder.

I understand what you're saying. I was lucky that we learned from that when I was in Afghanistan. But you can't blame militaries for rules of engagement.

They're soldiers, not cowboys.
 
X-FOR

Well, fellas, the 1st Armd Div in Germany (which OTL was the basis for IFOR as deployed to enforce dayton 1995-96) actually did have contingency plans as the Extraction Force to deploy into Bosnia to rescue UNPROFOR, had the entire UN op gone pear-shaped after Srebrenica and the blue helmets actually been drawn into active fighting with the VRS. If X-FOR had been needed to fight their way into Bosnia to rescue the UN peacekeepers, then US forces in Europe would definitely have been involved in an active combat role in Bosnia instead of just a peacekeeping force...

Also, other good instances of when the European contingents gave a good account of themselves in Bosnia (despite an admittedly poor initial record of inaction/inertia/indifference):
-British and Swedish peacekeepers opened fire in response to Serb attacks on food convoys in central Bosnia 1993, resulting in less such instances
-Danish Leopard tank sqn engaged Serb T55s near Tuzla May 1994, knocked out approx 5 for no loss to themselves
-British, French and Dutch combat units constituted the Rapid Reaction Force (RRF) from July 1995, used their 155mm howitzers to bombard the Serbs from Mt Igman outside Sarajevo alongside NATO airstrikes
-heck, even before Srebernica was overrun by the DRINA CORPS, Col. Ton Karremans, as CO of Dutchbat, made 5 repeated requests to Yasushi Akashi for overwhelming NATO airstrikes on the Serb positions and forces around the 'Safe Area', since he knew that his under-equipped, lightly-armed, outnumbered UN soldiers had no real means of effectively defending Srebrenica from an all-out Serb assault- the fact that he was turned down on all those occasions by UNPROFOR command shouldn't detract from his attempts to have something effective done in the face of overwhelming odds...

Of course, all the above instaces were subject to the very restrictive caveats on the use of force laid down by UNPROFOR ROE
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Well, fellas, the 1st Armd Div in Germany (which OTL was the basis for IFOR as deployed to enforce dayton 1995-96) actually did have contingency plans as the Extraction Force to deploy into Bosnia to rescue UNPROFOR, had the entire UN op gone pear-shaped after Srebrenica and the blue helmets actually been drawn into active fighting with the VRS. If X-FOR had been needed to fight their way into Bosnia to rescue the UN peacekeepers, then US forces in Europe would definitely have been involved in an active combat role in Bosnia instead of just a peacekeeping force...

Also, other good instances of when the European contingents gave a good account of themselves in Bosnia (despite an admittedly poor initial record of inaction/inertia/indifference):
-British and Swedish peacekeepers opened fire in response to Serb attacks on food convoys in central Bosnia 1993, resulting in less such instances
-Danish Leopard tank sqn engaged Serb T55s near Tuzla May 1994, knocked out approx 5 for no loss to themselves
-British, French and Dutch combat units constituted the Rapid Reaction Force (RRF) from July 1995, used their 155mm howitzers to bombard the Serbs from Mt Igman outside Sarajevo alongside NATO airstrikes
-heck, even before Srebernica was overrun by the DRINA CORPS, Col. Ton Karremans, as CO of Dutchbat, made 5 repeated requests to Yasushi Akashi for overwhelming NATO airstrikes on the Serb positions and forces around the 'Safe Area', since he knew that his under-equipped, lightly-armed, outnumbered UN soldiers had no real means of effectively defending Srebrenica from an all-out Serb assault- the fact that he was turned down on all those occasions by UNPROFOR command shouldn't detract from his attempts to have something effective done in the face of overwhelming odds...

Of course, all the above instaces were subject to the very restrictive caveats on the use of force laid down by UNPROFOR ROE

Okay...so let's work on a concrete POD here, so we know what units are available. This is actually looking like something that could turn into a good timeline.

What's going to be the straw that breaks the camel's back? The Serbs just go apeshit and start crossing the cease-fire lines?
 
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