What If the Public reacted differently to the Srebrenica massacre with regards to Clinton, and he sent US forces to the region to force stability in the region as a result?
What would be the Ramifications for
the 1996 Election?
the Sept 11 attacks?
The Balkans?
Russia?
DBWI...
First off, I think Clinton would definitely lose 1996 elections. Vietnam syndrome wasn't over, and an intervention in Balkans (which would result in HUGE casualties as ex-Yugoslav forces were entirely different from Iraqi Army in 1991) would surely bring memories of that back into mind. So, it's Bob Dole in 1996.
(...)ex-Yugoslav forces were entirely different from Iraqi Army in 1991(...)
My humble opinion: If US-Forces were stationed from the beginning of the war instead of the useless Europeans who can't do anything on their own, I think that the war would have endet much earlier, at least every side would have accepted the Vance-Owen Plan.
so, POD is bush wins a second term. During his 2nd term, in response to reports of atrocities in Bosnia, what he does is send US Forces to "safe Zones", which unlike OTL, are actually safe.
Bascially, the (fictional) Kissinger plan is approved and the Bosnian war ends quicker than OTL.
This sets a precedent for Rwanda as a butterfly.
This also means that the chances for 9/11 are reduced.
My humble opinion: If US-Forces were stationed from the beginning of the war instead of the useless Europeans who can't do anything on their own, I think that the war would have ended much earlier, at least every side would have accepted the Vance-Owen Plan.
No, he was not being nationalist, he was only saying that the European nations were useless in Bosnia.
That's really unfair. Just look at the Medak Pocket, where the Canadians engaged in one of the largest firefights UN forces have ever been in since Korea. (not European, but you seem a bit Ameri-centric)
Or the amount of carrier ops the French flew of Foch.
Or the Dutch F-16, which downed a MiG-29 while escorting in Canadian Hornets for an air-to-ground raid.
Or the SAS, JTF2, and Foreign Legion units that were doing counter-sniper work all over that god-forsaken hellhole.
Or even the Bundeswehr, who was deployed for the first time outside their native Germany and performed superbly.
No. The Europeans did fine, and that's coming from an American.
This might have been impressive indeed. But it was not enough to stop the war and the mass murder.
Well, fellas, the 1st Armd Div in Germany (which OTL was the basis for IFOR as deployed to enforce dayton 1995-96) actually did have contingency plans as the Extraction Force to deploy into Bosnia to rescue UNPROFOR, had the entire UN op gone pear-shaped after Srebrenica and the blue helmets actually been drawn into active fighting with the VRS. If X-FOR had been needed to fight their way into Bosnia to rescue the UN peacekeepers, then US forces in Europe would definitely have been involved in an active combat role in Bosnia instead of just a peacekeeping force...
Also, other good instances of when the European contingents gave a good account of themselves in Bosnia (despite an admittedly poor initial record of inaction/inertia/indifference):
-British and Swedish peacekeepers opened fire in response to Serb attacks on food convoys in central Bosnia 1993, resulting in less such instances
-Danish Leopard tank sqn engaged Serb T55s near Tuzla May 1994, knocked out approx 5 for no loss to themselves
-British, French and Dutch combat units constituted the Rapid Reaction Force (RRF) from July 1995, used their 155mm howitzers to bombard the Serbs from Mt Igman outside Sarajevo alongside NATO airstrikes
-heck, even before Srebernica was overrun by the DRINA CORPS, Col. Ton Karremans, as CO of Dutchbat, made 5 repeated requests to Yasushi Akashi for overwhelming NATO airstrikes on the Serb positions and forces around the 'Safe Area', since he knew that his under-equipped, lightly-armed, outnumbered UN soldiers had no real means of effectively defending Srebrenica from an all-out Serb assault- the fact that he was turned down on all those occasions by UNPROFOR command shouldn't detract from his attempts to have something effective done in the face of overwhelming odds...
Of course, all the above instaces were subject to the very restrictive caveats on the use of force laid down by UNPROFOR ROE