WI US lose the Spanish-American War?

[Tocomocho]

Well, I had seen many TLs and AH books with an uber-US that include Cuba, Puerto Rico and sometimes even Mexico and most of Central and South America. Apparently, many guys think that the Spanish-American War was an easy military walk with an inevitable Amercan victory. But the truth is that, for example, in the Cuban campaign the US only achieved 4 victories of 11 main battles. A very poor result if you think that the suppose modern supper-duper US (supported by Cuban independentist) were fighting against a decadent and poor industrialized country exhausted by 11 wars in 30 years, ruled at the time by a 12-years-old King and two corrupt politicians that alternate in the goverment since the pact of 1885), whose hungry and badly salaried soldiers were mainly obliged to fight in zones infested with malaria by the Cuban guerrilleros. Don't you think?

Well, suppose that the US, instead of sinking the Spanish fleet and forcing the Spanish government to ask for peace, is defeated.

- What are the consequences?
- More isolationism?
- The US don't join the Great War?

 

[Gladi]

Bright day
The spanish fleet will be sunk if it is in OTL state. To get a better fleet would take money. To get money would take better goverment. Better goverment would possibly butterfly whole war away...

 

[Thande]

Bright day
The spanish fleet will be sunk if it is in OTL state. To get a better fleet would take money. To get money would take better goverment. Better goverment would possibly butterfly whole war away...

Agreed...therefore, we need to give Spain some powerful allies if she's to win.

Not Britain - at this point the US was pretty much in the British sphere of influence. I'm guessing France would be lukewarm to such an adventure. But what about Germany? In Robert Conroy's "1901" Germany basically went to war in order to take the Spanish colonies off the US, Wilhelm II wanting his place in the sun...alternatively might Germany come out in support of Spain, preferring to bring Spain and its remaining colonies firmly into the German sphere of influence rather than try to directly take the colonies?

I'm not saying it's very likely but...

 

[MacCaulay]

But what about Germany? In Robert Conroy's "1901" Germany basically went to war in order to take the Spanish colonies off the US, Wilhelm II wanting his place in the sun...alternatively might Germany come out in support of Spain, preferring to bring Spain and its remaining colonies firmly into the German sphere of influence rather than try to directly take the colonies?

I'm not saying it's very likely but...

I've got to agree. It's not very likely. But since "not very likely" scenarios are fun sometimes, I'll bite.

It seemed that the German, and American, plans were for island-hopping, Pacific style, in the Carribean. So...America and Spain go to war, and the US still wins in the Philippines. The German Pacific squadron is still not in play yet.
However, the Americans prepare to land in Cuba, but first must take out the Spanish fleet, now reenforced with the pre-dreadnoughts Kaiser Wilhelm II, and Brandenburg, holds off the invasion. The Americans must now move to protect their coast AND prepare to take on more naval forces, possibly by setting up a naval cordon in the mid-Atlantic.

This sounds like an interesting timeline. It'd be interesting to take it from that setup, possibly.

 

[Michael B]

Agreed...therefore, we need to give Spain some powerful allies if she's to win.

might Germany come out in support of Spain, preferring to bring Spain and its remaining colonies firmly into the German sphere of influence rather than try to directly take the colonies?

I'm not saying it's very likely but...

I am actually on a TL where Germany would, when I can find time to work on it.

**********
The problem Spain had, at least according to some commendators ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_American_War ) is that they were losing the war in Cuba and defeat by America was preferable to defeat by the Cubans.

If at the end of war, the Cubans decided that either they did not want Yankee intervention (they want to run their own affairs lhe our Latin American countries) or whilst they don't mind the Americans throwing out the Spanish as long as they go home straight away, the extended American prescence leads to a guerilla war.

As good Imperialists the Americans try to stay on, but the Cubans gain political support from other Latin American countries. In addition, "Bolivarian" volunteers travel to fight along side their Cuban brothers.

Thus given the choice of a major war or retreat, the Americans do the latter, but still pass the Teller and Platt Amendments. However, the newly established Cuban government ignores these and open trade relationship with Germany Brazil and France. The first two also establish naval bases in Cuba although the Brazilian "fleet" stationed there is just one cruiser.

So whilst the Americans still gain Puero Rico Guam, and the Philippines, the only part of Cuba they get is an unimportant naval base.

In an AH of the war in Mark Twain's novel "Caribbean Fires Aburning", the Cubans actually attack the Americans in Guantánamo Bay causing a massive counter attack. However but that was only a work of fiction!

 

[Gladi]

Agreed...therefore, we need to give Spain some powerful allies if she's to win.

Not Britain - at this point the US was pretty much in the British sphere of influence. I'm guessing France would be lukewarm to such an adventure. But what about Germany? In Robert Conroy's "1901" Germany basically went to war in order to take the Spanish colonies off the US, Wilhelm II wanting his place in the sun...alternatively might Germany come out in support of Spain, preferring to bring Spain and its remaining colonies firmly into the German sphere of influence rather than try to directly take the colonies?

I'm not saying it's very likely but...

Hmm remember 1870... what happened in 1870...

 

[Thande]

Hmm remember 1870... what happened in 1870...

Would an adventure halfway around the world like this be worth another Franco-German war over? I had the impression that France didn't really think it was prepared for a revanche at this stage...

 

[1940LaSalle]

This may be one of the most unlikely scenarios I've ever encountered: Spain was on its last legs as any sort of a colonial power, and the US was rising fast as a world power. Furthermore, none of the true great powers in Europe had any real reason/incentive to get involved as an ally of Spain--not even Germany. (I can't see Wilhelm, as impetuous as he was, deciding to meddle in a conflict halfway around the world--and by the same token, "1901" seems almost as implausible; the risks are too great for debatable rewards.) Besides, all European powers knew of the Monroe Doctrine, and had respected it to one degree or another for about 3/4 of a century.

No, it would take multiple PODs, including a more modernized Spain and a far more inept US leadership to make this happen. Sorry, but the whole idea seems outside the realm of probability.

 

[MrP]

Would an adventure halfway around the world like this be worth another Franco-German war over? I had the impression that France didn't really think it was prepared for a revanche at this stage...

Lemme check my dates . . .

*fetches book*

Aye, February 1892 sees the completion of Plan XII, which was the first time France considered attacking, but Plans XI-XVI are all primarily based on France first defending and then attacking.

It's something I really should be researching more for my Better Great War for France TL.

 

[CalBear]

The U.S would have to been led by John French to have lost the Spanish American war. Someone who could snatch defeat out of the very jaws of victory.

 

[Gladi]

Would an adventure halfway around the world like this be worth another Franco-German war over? I had the impression that France didn't really think it was prepared for a revanche at this stage...

Ah no, I meant a PoD in 1870 for possible alliance between Spain and Germany.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Actually, I recall reading that the US landing in Cuba was one of the most mind-bogglingly badly-executed military manuevers of all time, but the Spanish military there was so worthless that they were unable to take proper advantage.

I also recall reading that the Spanish military as a whole had better machine guns (the Maxim), but they had not brought any to Cuba.

If the Spanish army in Cuba had Maxim guns, things might have gotten very ugly.

 

[CalBear]

Actually, I recall reading that the US landing in Cuba was one of the most mind-bogglingly badly-executed military manuevers of all time, but the Spanish military there was so worthless that they were unable to take proper advantage.

I also recall reading that the Spanish military as a whole had better machine guns (the Maxim), but they had not brought any to Cuba.

If the Spanish army in Cuba had Maxim guns, things might have gotten very ugly.

Thart may be the best description of the American campaign in Cuba I have ever read.

The Spanish DID have some Maxim guns in Cuba, but not too many, and the ones present were not well sited for the most part.

The Spanish had been getting the slats kicked out of them bt the Cubans, and most of them had nothing but converted farm equipment and some edged weapons (although the insurgents were getting better armed each time they killed a spanish patrol or hit a convoy). Their navy, if anything, was worse off than their army. They were just not up to any reasonable defense of either Cuba OR the Philippines

 

[MrP]

Y'know, that's an interesting idea. I don't think it makes American defeat too likely - but it is certainly a step in the right direction. Anyone else thinking of that horrendously badly handled landing in WWI (the name of which escapes me) right now?

 

[Tocomocho]

Their navy, if anything, was worse off than their army. They were just not up to any reasonable defense of either Cuba OR the Philippines

Yeah, the 19th century Spain didn't develop a good navy mostly because she had good relations with Britain and France, and didn't think in other possible rival. Moreover, at least some officers like Montojo despissed the US as a nation "without military tradition".

However, many people (and many of them Spaniards) use to exaggerate the bad state of the Spanish Navy in 1898, calling it "obsolete". Actually, the ships of the Spanish and American navys had not many differences at the time. For example, the Spanish used modern cruisers in Manila Bay, but they were badly maintained and the tactics used by Montojo weren't the best.

OTOH, the Spaniards had destroyers in Cuba. In fact, the first destroyer, the Destructor, was designed by the Spanish officer Fernando Villaamil in 1885, who was killed at the Battle of Santiago de Cuba. Other Spanish, Isaac Peral, designed the first true combat submarine, also in 1885... but sadly, he had enemies in the government and his invention never was adopted by the Spanish Navy. Can you imagine what could happened if the Spaniards had U-Boot like submarines in the Caribbean in 1898?

 

[Smaug]

If the United States was somehow defeated in this conflict, I think it would have armed itself to its teeth. It would've massively accelerated the the build ups that led to WWI, esp. concerning naval power.

 

[1978]

The US would be speaking Spanish I guess ... oh, wait a minute...

 

[Redbeard]

I'll claim that you only need a power or person willing to finance 5-10 torpedoboats and some dozens of Maxim guns - and we will have a US defeat big enough to turn history.

Transforming the existing Spanish navy into a success would be a heavy job, but by 1898 the first gyro stabilised torpedoes were just being offered for sale, and it would not be impossible to have a squadron ready as the US fleet approaches Havanna. Warships of that time would be very incapable of meeting such a threat, be it in fending off the TBs or taking a torpedohit, one hit will probably have any ship sink like a stone.

Another low cost but highly effective option of those years would be a minefield, could be contact mines and/or controlled by wire from land. The mine and the torpedo in exactly these years made a heavy impression on naval persons all over the world and was the katalyst behind visionaries like Adm. Fisher of the RN. By 1905 or 1910 battlefleets would be much better prepared to meet the challenge, but by 1898 disaster would be just around the corner.

If Spanish I would concentrate my effort on Cuba with the intention to deal the Americans a defeat big enough to demolish the political backup of an allready very fragile wareffort. But a few of the Maxim guns would do wonders on any 1898 battlefield, especially against an American force renowned for tactics making the Indians circling the wagons in western movies look like tactical geniouses in comparison.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[MrP]

Hm, if the Cristobal Colon had been delivered with her 10" guns that would've made Santiago more interesting. Mm, torpedo craft . . .

OTL Spain had:

Furor (sunk at Santiago) and Terror: 28 knots, 2 * 14" TT

Audaz, Osado, Pluton (sunk at Santiago), and Proserpine: 30 knots, 2 * 14" TT

They also have a mix of older slower craft.

I suppose you could have these 6 ships formed together as an experimental modern squadron in Cuba, while the older vessels go to the other Spanish squadrons.

Amusingly, if the Spanish succeed in laying the smack down, then the USN might not bother with battleships so much. I understand people were already worried about the expensive Maine blowing up so easily. If even another two sink as a result of torpedoes launched by destroyers, then you would probably have a radically different naval constuction program undertaken by every nation, quite possibly even killing off the Anglo-German naval race.

 

[MacCaulay]

As far as I can see...the only way the US could not win a Spanish-American War was if there wasn't a war in the first place.

It's an interesting concept, and I like the idea of Teddy Roosevelt and Joe Shafter going island hopping against the Kaiser's legions, but I don't think it would work, except as an adventure novel along the lines of Lancers of Peshawar.