WI: US Leaves Permanent Troops Behind in Iraq

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What if instead of full withdrawal in 2011, the US managed to be able to leave behind 10,000 soldiers in a permanent capacity to maintain peace in Iraq?
 

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ISIL wouldn't be in control of parts of Iraq, they aren't that stupid to attack Mosul with US soldiers in the country. Iran would have a tough time resupplying Assad I would think.
 

TFSmith121

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Planning on volunteering?

What if instead of full withdrawal in 2011, the US managed to be able to leave behind 10,000 soldiers in a permanent capacity to maintain peace in Iraq?

Planning on volunteering?

Not to be snarky, but open-ended interventions in other people's civil wars are not going to be a big lure for recruitment.

Best,
 
It bit depend would that make with agreement with Iraqi government. But surely this cause much more resistance against the government. Probably even stronger ISIS.
 
It bit depend would that make with agreement with Iraqi government. But surely this cause much more resistance against the government. Probably even stronger ISIS.

I doubt that ISIS would exist at all in TTL, not with the Americans there to immediately stomp all over them.
 
What if instead of full withdrawal in 2011, the US managed to be able to leave behind 10,000 soldiers in a permanent capacity to maintain peace in Iraq?

There would not be a peace to keep.

The elected Iraqi president was denouncing America and demanding the forces leave, with "Down with the evil baby eating tentacle monster Americans" comments/Speeches. The guy who threw his shoe at Bush was a big nationalist hero.

The militias that are currently the only reliable fighting force the Iraqi government has were virulently Anti-American, as you would expect from organisations created and/or run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.

The Shiite population hates, fears and distrusts the Suni's. The Suni's had toned down the violence which was mainly about taking back minority government because they were being paid to. There is an Israeli saying, "You can't buy and Arab, but you can certainly rent them."

When the Iraqi government stopped paying and fired the Suni officers the Suni militias went back to being anti-government. Isis control's the area it conquored because the Suni militias are running them. Isis does not have the manpower to dominate all this by themselves after all, and is paying them.
 
There would not be a peace to keep.

The elected Iraqi president was denouncing America and demanding the forces leave, with "Down with the evil baby eating tentacle monster Americans" comments/Speeches. The guy who threw his shoe at Bush was a big nationalist hero.

The militias that are currently the only reliable fighting force the Iraqi government has were virulently Anti-American, as you would expect from organisations created and/or run by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.

The Shiite population hates, fears and distrusts the Suni's. The Suni's had toned down the violence which was mainly about taking back minority government because they were being paid to. There is an Israeli saying, "You can't buy and Arab, but you can certainly rent them."

When the Iraqi government stopped paying and fired the Suni officers the Suni militias went back to being anti-government. Isis control's the area it conquored because the Suni militias are running them. Isis does not have the manpower to dominate all this by themselves after all, and is paying them.

Iraqis President was Talibani at the time and no their PM Maliki wasn't doing any such things. Though he was an ass, but at the end of the day this WH gave him a second term he didn't deserve by backing him over the party with the most votes. The size of the Awakening was reduced by a third by Maliki who cut their salaries which was a mistake he made after we left and wouldn't have made while we were there.

We pissed away our gains because we ran for the exits completely both politically and militarily rather then realize a slow pull out this decade was what was called for while the ISF was half baked and the Iraqi Air Force didn't exist.

In no way does it not advantage this WH as really the whole region to not keep a few thousand troops behind the wire at least the way are there now and the diplomatic mission going as well.

The notion that the Iraqi government was or is virulently anti American has no basis in reality. They were butthurt Obama officials other them Biden wouldn't talk to them and then angry we negotiated the second SOFA in bad faith, but that is a huge cry from being virulently anti-American.
 
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The Republicans do better in 2012.

Extremely doubtful.

Obama received no bump for his big announced pull out at all, because by that point in time more Americans were often dying in Afghanistan in a week then died in Iraq in a year.

To the U.S. public at the time it was a won war. Whatever slight decline in enthusiasm in his base it might have caused for a couple weeks would have been gone shortly thereafter.
 

Puzzle

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I think Iraq would be calmer, ISIS certainly would never have gotten so far. The whole region might be better off as there wouldn't be as much fighting but the Middle East is so chaotic that's much less certain. Its also possible that American troops were just keeping the lid on, that the tensions were inevitable and as soon as their potential overwhelming force vanished the militias would start right back up again no matter how long we stayed.

One more controversial opinion would be that the withdrawal signified weakness to Syria and Iran, that America wouldn't react to anything they did. The general war weariness of the American public probably keeps them more confident that there won't be any reprisals.

At the end of the day Obama had promised to end the war in Iraq and he did, regardless of the consequences. I think the only way for American troops to remain would be a different president. His political calculus was that as soon as Iraq was calm we were gone.
 

CalBear

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Current events. Active thread in Chat covering this subject.

Locked.

This is two of these in 24 hours. Take the hint.
 
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