So really, simply keeping the US out of the war past Spring of 1917 causes a collapse of the Entente?No it is much easier. Even if (and that if should be in bold and font size 200) the absolute wish dream of the Entente wins fraction becomes true against all available sources of OTL and the USA would allow unsecured loans to the UK...
then there are the following points.
1. How would the mutinies go without the USA in and without the promise of US troops coming? How to quell them? And that goes for the moral of all Entente troops.
2. The UK was running out of ships and fast. Even without USW the sinkings were far higher than the buildings. And without the help of the USN and the merchant shipping from the USA a convoy system is not possible.
3. Even the Germans would notice that suddenly unsecured loans were given meaning they know that the Entente is in the ropes. So no hastily and badly prepared offensive in March.
4. Even though the impact of the US troops was not that big until Jan 18 it was much more felt in March. Even if the missing troops in March made only 10 divisions it would have been enough for the Germans to break through. Haig actually stated 6 would have been enough,
One and two being the most important ones as they would have a direct short term impact. Latest Oct 17 the Entente would have to curtail operations massively due to the lack of imports due to the lack of shipping. And with that and the low moral of the troops it is the Entente asking for terms.
But again even this scenario is a pipe dream due to the fact that in April 17 the UK is broke and the USA has made it clear twice that no unsecured loans are going out. Anybody assuming otherwise so far has not brought up a shred of evidence it will change its mind.
Cryhavoc, waiting for sources that Wilson wanted to go to war Dec 16 or do you want to retreat that statement?