There have been a few threads, recently, and over the years, here and in soc.history.what-if, about the US opposing French return to Indochina. One thing that comes up, and rightly so, is the poisonous effect of this on US-French relations and negative geopolitical impact for the west in Europe.
But what if the US did as OTL with the French, but scratched an anti colonial itch against a smaller, easier, target, the Netherlands?
How would the Dutch react to this US pressure?
Would the Communist share of the Dutch vote increase?
Would Netherlands still join NATO or resume its historic neutrality instead?
It's been said France could and would cause a lot of trouble if the US had really pressed for Vietnamese independence in 1945. What kind of trouble could or would the Dutch cause?
It's not the first time I've brought up this idea, and here's how I imagined it coming about in the past:
But what if the US did as OTL with the French, but scratched an anti colonial itch against a smaller, easier, target, the Netherlands?
How would the Dutch react to this US pressure?
Would the Communist share of the Dutch vote increase?
Would Netherlands still join NATO or resume its historic neutrality instead?
It's been said France could and would cause a lot of trouble if the US had really pressed for Vietnamese independence in 1945. What kind of trouble could or would the Dutch cause?
It's not the first time I've brought up this idea, and here's how I imagined it coming about in the past:
What if Australia and the United States unequivocally recognized the independence of the Indonesian republic from VJ-Day on, over the entire former Dutch East Indies?
In OTL, the Australians first, and then the Americans, came to gradually support Indonesian independence while all along favoring Dutch-Indonesian compromise, deciding to not tolerate further Dutch efforts from 1949.
What if the two countries opposed Dutch reclamation of the territory from the very beginning and supported immediate independence, with as much UN supervision as the Indonesians would be willing to tolerate?
Their rationale could be that Indonesia is the economic prize of Southeast Asia, and the Dutch are too weak to succeed in retaking and holding the colony.
Also, opposing the Dutch in Indonesia is much lower risk than say, opposing the French in Indochina, because the Netherlands are not a permanent 5 security council member, or an occupying power within Germany. Also, even those already worried about political stability in Europe vis-a-vis communists could see the Netherlands communist party was much weaker than it's French counterpart, peaking at 11% of the vote in the second half of the 1940s. A doubling or trebling of its share still would be far short of a majority.
So first, what are the effects in Indonesia. Sukarno was already dominant on that side. Is he more friendly to the west? Does he align with the US coalition and send troops to Korea? If pro-western at first, does this persist through the 1950s and 1960s, causing Djakarta to never get as interested in Soviet or Chinese ties? Domestically, what happens with the economy and foreign trade patterns? And the balance between left-leaning, Islamic and military political forces. If Sukarno remains in power (and he may not. If there's no war of independence his role in independence may become less appreciated after a time) is he likely to still seek to absorb Malaysia?
(as an aside, did the Japanese occupy Portuguese East Timor or was it neutral during WWII?).
What are the reverberations in Europe and other colonial empires. I am assuming *no* change in US Indochina policy. But, how bitter is the Netherlands at exclusion and what can it do about it? It wouldn't try to resume a neutral stance, would it? Would its economic recovery be damaged?
The British and French will be fearful of US intentions, but I don't think what is done to Netherlands, and not their own empires, makes their European policies change in any material way. Might they seek to delay Indonesian entry into the UN?
Does the example of the Australian and American pro-independence stance in this one instance change expectations in the colonial world and cause earlier difficulties for the other colonial powers in their own territories?
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