What if, based on very narrow internal factors, and not on any
international ones, the US phased out aid to Egypt after the Cold War
-
Here's a few starting point options -
a) 1992 - Washington decides on a 5 year phase-out
b) 1992 - Washington decides on a 10 year phase-out
c) 2001 (spring/summer) - Washington decides on a 5 year phase-out
d) 2001 (spring/summer) - Washington decides on a 10 year phase-out
In any of scenarios a) thru d), what are the effects on the Egyptian
economy and the Egyptian standard of living? Who loses, and possibly,
who gains?
How would the Mubarak government attempt to adapt to the end of US
aid, and would it be likely in any of these scenarios to hvae trouble
surviving?
Would the Mubarak government, or any alternative regime, have a chance
of finding any power willing to substitute for a serious fraction of
US aid? If so, who, and what strings would they attach?
As for external consequences, would Cairo formally repudiate any or
all the terms of its peace treaty with Israel in any of scenarios a)
through d). if Egypt repudiated the treaty and/or diplomatic
recognition, would it change its military posture in Sinai, or simply
leave the military situation status quo while keeping repudiation a
symbolic gesture?
international ones, the US phased out aid to Egypt after the Cold War
-
Here's a few starting point options -
a) 1992 - Washington decides on a 5 year phase-out
b) 1992 - Washington decides on a 10 year phase-out
c) 2001 (spring/summer) - Washington decides on a 5 year phase-out
d) 2001 (spring/summer) - Washington decides on a 10 year phase-out
In any of scenarios a) thru d), what are the effects on the Egyptian
economy and the Egyptian standard of living? Who loses, and possibly,
who gains?
How would the Mubarak government attempt to adapt to the end of US
aid, and would it be likely in any of these scenarios to hvae trouble
surviving?
Would the Mubarak government, or any alternative regime, have a chance
of finding any power willing to substitute for a serious fraction of
US aid? If so, who, and what strings would they attach?
As for external consequences, would Cairo formally repudiate any or
all the terms of its peace treaty with Israel in any of scenarios a)
through d). if Egypt repudiated the treaty and/or diplomatic
recognition, would it change its military posture in Sinai, or simply
leave the military situation status quo while keeping repudiation a
symbolic gesture?