WI: United States Keeps the Pacific Fleet in San Diego

No we can't. Its something folks cling to despite the evidence, or rush to when not knowing the facts about the capability of carrier aircraft & the damage it actually takes to do this. I remember a thread a couple years ago where a couple people would not turn loose of the idea the fuel tanks for the fleet could be instantly turned into a sea of flame, consuming every bit of fuel in a hour or two. A few strafing aircraft and a handful of 120kg bombs is all it would take. The evidence they kept presenting continually backfired and on examination proved otherwise. There are people who are obsessed with the silver bullet, the golden BB, the panacea action that will reduce the enemy to impotence in a single simple sure action.



Be fun to game that one.

How many raids of varying levels of intensity were thrown at Rabaul over how many years?
 
All, unless I'm much mistaken, targetting the shipping in the harbor, not the shore facilities.

No, 5th Air Force had plenty of raids against Rabaul that did not necessarily go against the shipping. Ironically the most decisive series of raids were those by Halsey's carriers in November 1943 and they did go after ships not facilities. Heavy damage to the cruisers the Japanese had assembled there convinced them that Rabaul was not a viable base any longer.
 
How many raids of varying levels of intensity were thrown at Rabaul over how many years?

Enough that Gamble wrote a 390 page book on the subject 'Fortress Rabaul'

All, unless I'm much mistaken, targetting the shipping in the harbor, not the shore facilities.

No. Gamble does not prevent precise statistics, buts its clear the shore facilities were attacked as often as the ships and docks. AARs Gamble draws from describe burning warehouses & barracks, demolished oil tanks & other shore targets. Some raids they found nothing in the anchorages and dumped everything on the shore facilities.

Gamble also notes that the B17s & B26s were attacking from high altitude as per early 1942 AAF doctrine & the results were not what was expected. It took a lot more sorties than expected to inflicted X amount of damage. However the B17s were able to hit anchored or docked ships from 20,000 feet more often than moving ships. When Kenny took command of the 5th AF mid 1942 he retrained the aircrews to use low altitude techniques, including "Skip Bombing". As the aircrews became proficient in those techniques in late 1942 the real damage inflicted rose.

After Operation CARTWHEEL established US enclaves encircling Rabaul the raids on it were reduced & attacking cargo ships at sea had become productive using the low altitude techniques. i.e.: Battle of the Bismarck Sea.
 
Actually, Gamble had two books on the air war over Rabaul - Fortress Rabaul and Target Rabaul. And of course his books about the Japanese invasion.
 
Most of 'Fortress Rabaul' covers 1942 & tapers off in 1943. Only a few paragraphs for after mid 1943, 44, 45. It was a near forgotten bombing campaign with a lot of valuable insights.
 

Errolwi

Monthly Donor
There is an overview of attacks against Rabaul from December 1943 in the RNZAF Official History (online).
Some more detail
First target were airfields, then other facilities, down to attacking crops to starve the garrison.
 
Enough that Gamble wrote a 390 page book on the subject 'Fortress Rabaul'



No. Gamble does not prevent precise statistics, buts its clear the shore facilities were attacked as often as the ships and docks. AARs Gamble draws from describe burning warehouses & barracks, demolished oil tanks & other shore targets. Some raids they found nothing in the anchorages and dumped everything on the shore facilities.

Gamble also notes that the B17s & B26s were attacking from high altitude as per early 1942 AAF doctrine & the results were not what was expected. It took a lot more sorties than expected to inflicted X amount of damage. However the B17s were able to hit anchored or docked ships from 20,000 feet more often than moving ships. When Kenny took command of the 5th AF mid 1942 he retrained the aircrews to use low altitude techniques, including "Skip Bombing". As the aircrews became proficient in those techniques in late 1942 the real damage inflicted rose.

After Operation CARTWHEEL established US enclaves encircling Rabaul the raids on it were reduced & attacking cargo ships at sea had become productive using the low altitude techniques. i.e.: Battle of the Bismarck Sea.
Forgotten campaign, indeed. I'm ashamed I didn't know this.:oops::oops::oops::oops:
 
The campaign against Rabaul is obviously an important topic for Bruce Gamble:

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss_2?url=search-alias=aps&field-keywords=bruce+gamble

Gamble is focused on Rabaul, but the US 5th AF had a larger war. From Feb 1942 its attacks on Rabaul were part of a three legged air battle with one on Rabaul, the second over New Guinea, and then the third added in August over the Solomons.

Forgotten campaign, indeed. I'm ashamed I didn't know this.:oops::oops::oops::oops:

The Navy was a part of this, first appearing in the attempted carrier raid on Rabaul in Feb 1942, when Butch OHare downed five Betty bombers in less than five minutes. & again in March when the Lexington & Enterprise together scattered a cargo ship convoy headed for Lae New Guniea. MacAurthr was pestering Bereton about attacking Rabaul from January. Bereton tried but lacked aircraft and any measuable support structure in Australia. Mac fired Bereton & the replacement Maj Gen Brett was able to organize a logistics structure but by the time he got that set Mac had become impatient & Brett was sent home. Commander #3 Kenny benefitted from Beretons & Bretts work setting up bases & organizing the logistics. He also told Mac what he wanted to hear, vs the unvarnished truth Bereton & Brett gave. The air battles over New Guniea were part of the whole that attritioned the Japanese air forces in the region into impotence. The mixed air wing on Guadalcanal made its contribution from August 42 & damaged both Japans long range bomber force, and sank a fair number of cargo and war ships in the Solomons.

By September the 5 AF was well enough along Kenny could spare time, parts, and fuel for training, and improving tactics/techniques. The spectacular confirmation of results came 2 March 1943 when the 5th AF massacred a convoy to New Guinea, sinking warships as well as cargo carriers. By then the Guadacanal battle was over & the CARTWHEEL campaign moved the Naval portion of the air battle west wards through the Solomons to the Rabaul area. Later in 1943 The Japanese gave up on New Guniea, and were forced to concede the air battle over Rabaul.
 
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No we can't. Its something folks cling to despite the evidence, or rush to when not knowing the facts about the capability of carrier aircraft & the damage it actually takes to do this. I remember a thread a couple years ago where a couple people would not turn loose of the idea the fuel tanks for the fleet could be instantly turned into a sea of flame, consuming every bit of fuel in a hour or two. A few strafing aircraft and a handful of 120kg bombs is all it would take. The evidence they kept presenting continually backfired and on examination proved otherwise. There are people who are obsessed with the silver bullet, the golden BB, the panacea action that will reduce the enemy to impotence in a single simple sure action.



Be fun to game that one.

It would be fun to game out an Oahu invasion attempt. I've seen one or two published games on the subject. The one I do know exists doesn't portray the coastal batteries. I have the game, but haven't played it yet (I need to cut out the counters).

Carl, how would you set up the game?
 
Set up the game? Have not thought about this one.

Guess it depends on the Japanese goals. Is this invasion a suprise shock attack with only 4,000-6,000 men. Or a large scale thing of 20,000 men, a large slow transport fleet, preparatory fires, & a day or more of warning?
 
Set up the game? Have not thought about this one.

Guess it depends on the Japanese goals. Is this invasion a suprise shock attack with only 4,000-6,000 men. Or a large scale thing of 20,000 men, a large slow transport fleet, preparatory fires, & a day or more of warning?

I was thinking of the large scale thing. Would it be after the historical Pearl Harbor raid, or this thread's ATL with the fleet at San Diego? The cruisers and destroyers used in the Wake Island invasion would be with the Oahu invasion force. Does the IJN bring along any additional battleships? (I don't think the IJN had any cruisers to spare besides the 7 used at Wake.)

What would be the target of a surprise shock attack? Probably the naval base, but where would they land and when?
 
I always preferred invading Alaska to Hawaii.
the first time I played A&A (later, I realized that we had misinterpreted some of the rules, so the game we were playing was completely wrong), I invaded Hawaii first, mainly to get the US fleet and army out of the way. Later on, I went into Alaska, Mexico, western Canada, Eastern Canada (briefly), most of S. America, etc. I was riding pretty good until I tried to invade Australia and got stomped (damn Aussies). I also managed to grab China and parts of Siberia, but failed to get India. I didn't win the game (Germany did), but during the game, I made the Pacific into my personal lake, and tied up the USA so much that they couldn't help anyone else out...
 
playing Axis and Allies, I managed to invade Hawaii several times while playing as the Japanese... yeah, I know, not the most accurate game... :)

I was thinking in terms of using Advanced Squad Leader & modeling the invasion of Oahu at 40 meters to a 1" hexagon, two minutes real time per turn, and pieces representing rifle squads & single weapon crews...
 
I was thinking in terms of using Advanced Squad Leader & modeling the invasion of Oahu at 40 meters to a 1" hexagon, two minutes real time per turn, and pieces representing rifle squads & single weapon crews...

Carl, can you guarantee 99.9% accuracy for the terrain in each hex?
 
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