WI: United States Keeps the Pacific Fleet in San Diego

Greenville

Banned
What if the United States prior to 1941 maintains the Pacific Fleet in its original homeport of San Diego, California instead of moving it to Hawaii?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
What if the United States prior to 1941 maintains the Pacific Fleet in its original homeport of San Diego, California instead of moving it to Hawaii?

Japan does not attack Pearl but uses the carriers in the initial drive towards the PI and DEI. We have much better trained navy due to more training time. We lack the fuel and supplies to be aggressive with the BB in the first 3-6 months of the war. At some point, we will move these ships to active theaters and do a big push. May 1942 is not unreasonable. And then there will likely be the decisive battle the Japanese sought, with maybe even some main battle line fighting. Japan crushed by the weight of American production.
 
Why would take the risk of going as far as Pearl for quite a small pay off?

Potentially its a huge payoff

Catch the carriers in port and the "running wild" time goes up from 6 months to 18
... perhaps more if the USN tries to intervene in early '42 using the BBs brought forward from San Diego

Even if all that us done is to destroy Pearl as a base (practically or even psychologically)
and there is still a gain of time equivalent to OTL
 

Pangur

Donor
Potentially its a huge payoff

Catch the carriers in port and the "running wild" time goes up from 6 months to 18
... perhaps more if the USN tries to intervene in early '42 using the BBs brought forward from San Diego


Even if all that us done is to destroy Pearl as a base (practically or even psychologically)
and there is still a gain of time equivalent to OTL

The OP has the pacific fleet in San Diego which means no carriers to attack
 
At some point, we will move these ships to active theaters and do a big push. May 1942 is not unreasonable. And then there will likely be the decisive battle the Japanese sought, with maybe even some main battle line fighting. Japan crushed by the weight of American production.

There is NO significant American capital ship production in Q1 & Q2 of 42.
From the new BBs NC is unfit for real use, Washington might be available but untried. SoDak is definitely too late.
As to carriers, Essex herself does not arrive at the Fleet till Q1 43 and her sisters till much later (most in 1944).

A straight up fight in Q2 or Q3 42 will be with existing assets... not always a good prospect for the USN
 
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The OP has the pacific fleet in San Diego which means no carriers to attack

True but I covered that case when I said

Even if all that us done is to destroy Pearl as a base (practically or even psychologically)
and there is still a gain of time equivalent to OTL

However if the carriers are also based in California, then that means no significant reinforcements at Wake or Midway in late 41
and with Pearl nullified for a period then no way the USN can help in early 42.
Both of these fall by May 42 with minimal Japanese losses.

That alone still puts the IJN far ahead of OTL in June 42

and God help the British in the India Ocean if Nagumo has more time before he needs to withdraw
or the Aussies in New Guinea without the resources to do Coral Sea.

That butterflies away Watchtower in the Solomons with all the attritional naval losses to japan
and then the air losses that followed.

All in all, this POD allows Japan an extra 9 months, perhaps even a full year, to strengthen their defensive perimeter.
(and a lot more mobile resources to back it up).

That may not matter once US production gets fully on line but a lot more American blood will flow
 
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BlondieBC

Banned
There is NO significant American capital ship production in Q1 & Q2 of 42.
From the new BBs NC is unfit for real use, Washington might be available but untried. SoDak is definitely too late.
As to carriers, Essex herself does not arrive at the Fleet till Q1 43 and her sisters till much later (most in 1944).

A straight up fight in Q2 or Q3 42 will be with existing assets... not always a good prospect for the USN

You are missing the point. We lack the fuel to use our ships at forward bases. This lack of fuel and other consumable is hidden IOTL since the BB are sunk or at the bottom of the harbor or otherwise non-combat useable. Roughly speaking when Admiral Richardson left the war, we had enough fuel to sail the fleet to Truk, fight for half a day, sail back. Our plans for the first weeks of the war was to send a couple of BB to Samoa for a month or two, and build up for the thrust towards the PI.

ITTL, at some point in 1942, we will have built up fuel and supplies enough to attack, and May is a good guess for the month.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Very true, however the Japanese Navy did not seem to think that way based on their planning and discussions leading to planning regarding the attack on Pearl Harbor.

Agreed. For Japan to attack just the base facilities with the fleet not being there would require a massive shift in Japanese strategic thinking. Their entire war fighting concept was based on the decisive battle. The quick strike to kill your enemy before he has a chance to counter. Basically Japanese duelling writ large. Going after logistics means accepting and planning for a war of attrition. And that wasn't "honorable" enough for the IJN. Not to mention a war of attrition was a garaunteed death sentence for Japan.
 
Our plans for the first weeks of the war was to send a couple of BB to Samoa for a month or two, and build up for the thrust towards the PI.

OTL plans thought that perhaps but any thrust back from Pearl .. with a fully operating, fully stocked base

ATL with that gone ... May is a pipe dream ...

August at the earliest ... (remember that the USN insiders called Watchtower , Shoestring)
By that time the IJN has Wake, Midway, the Solomons and New Guinea locked down

It won't do them any good in the long run, as long as the American nerve holds, but the way back
(whether from Australia or Hawaii or both)
that will be (the Canal + Tarawa + Iwo ) raised to the nth power.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
OTL plans thought that perhaps but any thrust back from Pearl .. with a fully operating, fully stocked base

ATL with that gone ... May is a pipe dream ...

August at the earliest ... (remember that the USN insiders called Watchtower , Shoestring)
By that time the IJN has Wake, Midway, the Solomons and New Guinea locked down

It won't do them any good in the long run, as long as the American nerve holds, but the way back
(whether from Australia or Hawaii or both)
that will be (the Canal + Tarawa + Iwo ) raised to the nth power.

Are you talking the plans pre-move BB to Pearl or post-move BB to Pearl?
 
To find out what the US Navies actual plans were Google WPP-46. Published in March 1941 this was Admiral Kimmels play book for a war with Japan. It was adapted from the previous plans published by Admiral Richardson, who adapted it from year earlier plans of his predecessor. WPP-46 was the US Pacific fleets portion of the old War Plan ORANGE & the relevant parts of the current RAINBOW Plans.

The short version is Kimmel (as did Richardson & others before) intended to raid Japanese bases and ambush any exposed naval elements, and take advantage of such opportunities that did not expose the fleet to extreme risk. This phase would continue until such a time as the construction of new combatant ships, and a mobile fleet train allowed a realistic offensive strength.

When Kimmel published this in March 1941 it was not clear exactly when the new fleet elements would be ready, tho references to 12-18 months after war started were made. By late 1941 it was becoming clear the naval construction underway meant a major Pacific offensive could be undertaken in the latter half of 1943. Sooner if there was no war with Germany, later if there was a simultaneous war with Germany. Since the "Dog" memo written by Admiral Stark earlier in 1941 and the development of the RAINBOW plans it had been planned that if the US found itself in a two from war Germany would have priority. The RAINBOW plans & WPP-46 did not address in detail the Pacific war in the S Pacific, other than mention of assistance to Allies there. Nor did they have anything about rescuing the Phillipines.

These documents are all available on line. Extensive discussions of them & their background are available by experts on HyperWar & books like Costellos 'The Pacific War 1941-1945'.
 
  • Regarding the Japanese still attacking Pearl Harbor, would any of the WW-2 navies have done that, send a large part of their navy away from the main theater of action to attack a naval base? There will be US warships and warplanes on Oahu. Damaging the base facilities will hurt the US war effort. But is it the best use of those six carriers? Especially considering everyone here points out how stretched the Japanese military was in their opening offensives.
 
Quick questions/thinking outloud:

1) In late 41, does the USN move part of the pacific fleet to Pearl to reinforce it. War with Japan was deemed likely so this seems like a reasonable possibility. If so, what gets moved?
2) If not, or if the IJN is unaware of this, do they attempt an aggressive move at Hawaii? A Midway type engagement in December. Perhaps the move against the Phillipines is delayed with a concentration at Hawaii?
 
If the IJN doesn't attack Pearl Harbor, what are they likely to do, and when i the US likely to join the war?
 

SsgtC

Banned
2) If not, or if the IJN is unaware of this, do they attempt an aggressive move at Hawaii? A Midway type engagement in December. Perhaps the move against the Phillipines is delayed with a concentration at Hawaii?

No. The Philippines HAD to be taken. They sat squarely on the IJN supply routes for oil from the DEI. The US could interdict oil shipments at will from there. There is no way the Japanese would try and occupy HI with the Philippines free to go after their supply lines
 
No. The Philippines HAD to be taken. They sat squarely on the IJN supply routes for oil from the DEI. The US could interdict oil shipments at will from there. There is no way the Japanese would try and occupy HI with the Philippines free to go after their supply lines

LOL. I cant believe I wasnt thinking about that. Giant facepalm.
 
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