WI: United Netherland Republic

[caliburdeath]

It seems odd that most United Netherlands threads focus on the 19th century chance.
What if the Spanish, in the dutch revolution of the 16th and 17th century, had never retaken the southern Netherlands, or they had been expelled?
What would be the effects of the resultant united Netherlands, or would it even be united?

 

[pompejus]

It seems odd that most United Netherlands threads focus on the 19th century chance.
What if the Spanish, in the dutch revolution of the 16th and 17th century, had never retaken the southern Netherlands, or they had been expelled?

It is not as easy as its sounds. The Spanish were a lot stronger than the Netherlands in the early stages of the revolt. Almost all the Dutch speaking cities and various Walloon cities revolted again the Spanish and they simply managed to recapture one after the other. Even if we get rid of Parma (the brilliant Spanish general) or the betrayal of Rennenberg (which gave the Spanish the oppertunity to retake a large part of the north east), I still think the Spanish would gain a lot of ground. In the end I do believe the Netherlands might be able to be a lot bigger (including large parts of Brabant and Antwerp), I simply don't think the Dutch can gain all of the Southern Netherlands, especialy most of Wallonia. They might recapture it in future wars. Especialy if most of Flanders and Brabant are part of the Republic (assuming it would be a republic) they would want to recapture the rest of Flanders and Brabant, but would they realy care about Artois, Hainaut, Namur or Luxemburg (maybe they would care about Limburg and Overmaas to gain control of the river Meusse).

What would be the effects of the resultant united Netherlands, or would it even be united?

That is an interesting question. Assuming Antwerp doesn't fall like OTL, Antwerp probably be the Dutch capital. Assuming large parts of Flanders and Brabant are Dutch and actualy remain protestant (they were before being reconverted by the Spanish) they would have been a major influence in the netherlands. OTL the Netherlands was ruled by Holland. Holland would still be a major power within the Netherlands (although far weaker than OTL), Flanders and Brabant (mainly) Antwerp would balance Holland's power, which is probably a good thing. The country would probably still be a decentraliced confederacy, with most power in the hands of the provinces and/or cities. it might still become a republic. The political situation in the Netherlands was pretty good for a republic, so unless they offer the throne to England or France and they accept it, I think a republic is likely. The office of Stadholder would probably still exist, but I think it is unlikely any stadholder would gain as much power as the stadholder of Holland OTL. Good chance the house Nassau wouldn't be the only one to have stadholders. It might even not end up hereditary.

 

[caliburdeath]

It is not as easy as its sounds. The Spanish were a lot stronger than the Netherlands in the early stages of the revolt. Almost all the Dutch speaking cities and various Walloon cities revolted again the Spanish and they simply managed to recapture one after the other. Even if we get rid of Parma (the brilliant Spanish general) or the betrayal of Rennenberg (which gave the Spanish the oppertunity to retake a large part of the north east), I still think the Spanish would gain a lot of ground. In the end I do believe the Netherlands might be able to be a lot bigger (including large parts of Brabant and Antwerp), I simply don't think the Dutch can gain all of the Southern Netherlands, especialy most of Wallonia. They might recapture it in future wars. Especialy if most of Flanders and Brabant are part of the Republic (assuming it would be a republic) they would want to recapture the rest of Flanders and Brabant, but would they realy care about Artois, Hainaut, Namur or Luxemburg (maybe they would care about Limburg and Overmaas to gain control of the river Meusse).

I had posted a thread before asking the same querstion, but also asking how it would happen, and most discussion focused on the how. I want this thread to focus on the result. If the Spanish keep Wallonia it's not the end of the world.

That is an interesting question. Assuming Antwerp doesn't fall like OTL, Antwerp probably be the Dutch capital. Assuming large parts of Flanders and Brabant are Dutch and actualy remain protestant (they were before being reconverted by the Spanish) they would have been a major influence in the netherlands. OTL the Netherlands was ruled by Holland. Holland would still be a major power within the Netherlands (although far weaker than OTL), Flanders and Brabant (mainly) Antwerp would balance Holland's power, which is probably a good thing. The country would probably still be a decentraliced confederacy, with most power in the hands of the provinces and/or cities. it might still become a republic. The political situation in the Netherlands was pretty good for a republic, so unless they offer the throne to England or France and they accept it, I think a republic is likely. The office of Stadholder would probably still exist, but I think it is unlikely any stadholder would gain as much power as the stadholder of Holland OTL. Good chance the house Nassau wouldn't be the only one to have stadholders. It might even not end up hereditary.

Interesting. What would the external situation be? Would the Dutch keep South Africa, New Netherland, and naval supremacy? Who would be the Dutch allies/enemies?

 

[pompejus]

Interesting. What would the external situation be? Would the Dutch keep South Africa, New Netherland, and naval supremacy?

Impossible to tell as the POD would need to be before the Dutch founded the Cape colony or the New Netherlands. I find it likely that this netherlands would still try to found some colonies. The Netherlands was a trading nation and it makes sense to start colonies. The question is though, would they be as successfull as OTL. The VOC was extremely competent, would an ATL Dutch company as competent appear? Would the Netherlands still focus on the east (my guess is yes, better oppertunities there) or would they focus on the Americas? The colonial situation would be different.

That said, if the Dutch found an Cape colony, it would probably keep them, as I believe that would be the more likely situation with any POD before (and during) the French revolution.

Who would be the Dutch allies/enemies?

Impossible to tell. Although France has been the big enemy of the Dutch in Early Modern Europe, I consider it possible for them to ally against the habsburs or England. Of course this assumes France won't go after the Rhine border, which I consider possible. Actualy it won't need a Rhine border if the Netherlands is an ally. There is no natural ally or enemy for the Netherlands. It all depends on the current situation. OTL France was an ally against Spain and became an enemy later, while England was an enemy for a while and later became an ally. The same thing will probably happen here. Probably the only natural allies would be small Protestant German states.