WI: United Ireland from 1922, Loyalists are the rebels

Morty Vicar

Banned
Discuss!
First of all, its an AHC as to how this would happen in the first place, second I have some questions:

Would there have been pogroms against protestants as in the Free State?
Would the Irish Government have been as strongly influenced by the Catholic Church?
Would the Irish Civil war still have taken place in some form between the left and right?
Would the UVF have been more or less succesful in a campaign against the Irish Government, than the IRA against the British?
Would Belfast be similar in terms of nationalist and loyalist areas?
Etc
 
You've just made the bloody Civil War a hell of a lot more bloody. Ulster would fight as soon as the announcement was made. They would have the money, the weapons and the backing from several prominent people in London. There would be no concievable positive outcome here. Nver mind the UVF being rebels ala the IRA and the British, this becomes a full civil war. We may see an independent Ulster in a very quick timeframe.
 

Morty Vicar

Banned
You've just made the bloody Civil War a hell of a lot more bloody. Ulster would fight as soon as the announcement was made. They would have the money, the weapons and the backing from several prominent people in London. There would be no concievable positive outcome here. Nver mind the UVF being rebels ala the IRA and the British, this becomes a full civil war. We may see an independent Ulster in a very quick timeframe.

I kind of agree there. The various republican factions would quickly just become the Irish Army, and fight against the loyalists. The loyalists could only conceivably hold out in a very small part of NI, to which they would all flee (OTL many Protestants from the Free State flee to the mainland, here they would probably flee to Belfast). Belfast may end up as kind of a city-state, there's a very small chance other loyalists would garrison in derry as well. Catholics would be evicted from the regions held by loyalists, and possibly vice versa. There would certainly be pressure on the British Government to intervene, even if they didn't I'm sure many would arm themselves and join the fight, on either side. Support for the republicans from ex-pats (no pun intended!) on the mainland, mainly Glasgow, and from the US.
 
I kind of agree there. The various republican factions would quickly just become the Irish Army, and fight against the loyalists. The loyalists could only conceivably hold out in a very small part of NI, to which they would all flee (OTL many Protestants from the Free State flee to the mainland, here they would probably flee to Belfast). Belfast may end up as kind of a city-state, there's a very small chance other loyalists would garrison in derry as well. Catholics would be evicted from the regions held by loyalists, and possibly vice versa. There would certainly be pressure on the British Government to intervene, even if they didn't I'm sure many would arm themselves and join the fight, on either side. Support for the republicans from ex-pats (no pun intended!) on the mainland, mainly Glasgow, and from the US.
The UVF were in the main organized, well-trained veterans of the Great War. Half a million people signed the Ulster Covenant. Given the entire population of Ireland was 4.5 million, this is no small figure. You would get the UVF, the YCV and I don't doubt many volunteers from across the Irish sea helping them out in terms of matrerial, money and manpower.

On the other hand, you would have the IRA with the majority of the population outside Ulster behind them. They are also well-armed and are equally determined.

I believe Ulster could hold, but whatever happened it would be a horrible, horrible conflict.
 
The UVF were in the main organized, well-trained veterans of the Great War. Half a million people signed the Ulster Covenant. Given the entire population of Ireland was 4.5 million, this is no small figure. You would get the UVF, the YCV and I don't doubt many volunteers from across the Irish sea helping them out in terms of matrerial, money and manpower.

On the other hand, you would have the IRA with the majority of the population outside Ulster behind them. They are also well-armed and are equally determined.

I believe Ulster could hold, but whatever happened it would be a horrible, horrible conflict.

FletcherofSaltoun

Agree with the bulk of what you say but would the IRA and other such groups have qualified as well armed for what would effectively be picked battles rather than assassinations and small scale bombing? Its one thing to terrorist civilians or organise the odd ambush but another if they tried to actually invade Protestant dominated areas.

A lot would depend on the wider context but, barring major external support for the Catholic side I would expect Ulster would hold. Also as you say it would probably get at least some sympathisers from the rest of the UK.

Looking at very bad ethnic cleansing on both sides I fear.:(

Steve
 
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