WI: United Baltic Duchy

I've been wondering how likely a United Baltic Duchy with a German Ruling class is? Until the mid-19th century, many major cities had German majorities. Since the 1880's Russification, German Cultural Autonomy had ceased and during the 1905 revolution there were attacks against the Baltic German landowners, the burning of manors, and the killing and torture of members of the nobility. But if World War I had gone just right, then we could have seen this duchy under the German Emperor. How could they have acheived this and what would it have been like. How would it develop compared to OTL?
 
If you get a United Baltic Duchy after a CP victory and the Baltic stays that way until now, with the support of the German Empire, I think the Baltic would be a lot more prosperous today. There might be some kind of anti-German Baltic nationalist movement along the way but if they can get over that then everything would be okay.
 
If you get a United Baltic Duchy after a CP victory and the Baltic stays that way until now, with the support of the German Empire, I think the Baltic would be a lot more prosperous today. There might be some kind of anti-German Baltic nationalist movement along the way but if they can get over that then everything would be okay.

Your probably right. But in order for the Germans to remain in control, the Upperclass need to be in control, ie conservative. This would create a conflict of interest in Germany proper, since that is bound to go liberal/ socialist after the war. Or do you think I'm misunderstanding the situation?
 
Your probably right. But in order for the Germans to remain in control, the Upperclass need to be in control, ie conservative. This would create a conflict of interest in Germany proper, since that is bound to go liberal/ socialist after the war. Or do you think I'm misunderstanding the situation?

I was thinking the conflict between the German upper class and the Baltic peoples would happen post-WW2 or post-WW2 analogue (after the 40's) but before that, I'm pretty sure Germany will remain in firm control of the Baltic. If the CP victory happens around 1917 or '18 after the treaty of Brest-Litovsk which is the POD I'm speaking from then fear of the USSR would ensure the Baltic people's need for German protection.
 
I was thinking the conflict between the German upper class and the Baltic peoples would happen post-WW2 or post-WW2 analogue (after the 40's) but before that, I'm pretty sure Germany will remain in firm control of the Baltic. If the CP victory happens around 1917 or '18 after the treaty of Brest-Litovsk which is the POD I'm speaking from then fear of the USSR would ensure the Baltic people's need for German protection.

I'm quite sure that Germany can keep the Baltic people under their thumb. But I'm also sure that a lot of Germans in the rest of Germany will be against the supression. Do you think they'd accept it? If we factor in fear from the Soviets we do have to ask which is worse in the native's eyes. What would Lithuania be like in this timeline? Can the Estonians, Latvians and Livs live inside Germany peacfully? I think they could but I'm not sure.
 
The problem is the collapse of the Russian Empire also reawoken the Nationalism in the Baltic people/ The Baltic Germans were not considered in a friendly mannor by the natives as they had had to support the Czar. To have a role Germany would have had to win the war. It might be possible that the Germans could achieve some sort of role in the 1930's especially with the rising threat from the Soviet Union.
 
Would a union under the Emperor eventually lead to the German Empire annexing the Duchy as a constituent state (a la Bavaria etc) ? In that case, the question of nationalism becomes no more than what is happening to the Polish minority in Posen, Silesia etc

The other point, though, is what part of a political settlement, does the establishment of the Baltic Duchy play ? It seems most likely that some kind of kingdom of Poland and some kind of Kingdom of Lithuania, both in the German sphere, would also come into being. Being national states outside of the Empire's direct control, they are likely to eventually strike out on their own, and this could stir up trouble

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
Would a union under the Emperor eventually lead to the German Empire annexing the Duchy as a constituent state (a la Bavaria etc) ? In that case, the question of nationalism becomes no more than what is happening to the Polish minority in Posen, Silesia etc

The other point, though, is what part of a political settlement, does the establishment of the Baltic Duchy play ? It seems most likely that some kind of kingdom of Poland and some kind of Kingdom of Lithuania, both in the German sphere, would also come into being. Being national states outside of the Empire's direct control, they are likely to eventually strike out on their own, and this could stir up trouble

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

I'd imagine that the German Empire would annex the Duchy if it had the influence to allow the state to exist. The only difference between the Poles in Germany and the Baltic People is that there are Poles outside Germany.

I remember reading that the Old Chancellor of Germany at the time, Bethmann Hollweg, suppported the ethnic cleansing of the Poles from the German terriories. But I have no idea what would have actually happened. A lot of people said some crazy things in '17/'18, just look at the French.
 
Eveything would depend upon either a German victory in the war or a peaceful settlement otherwise I would doubt that there would be a Duchy as nationalism would pull it apart.
 
I'm quite sure that Germany can keep the Baltic people under their thumb. But I'm also sure that a lot of Germans in the rest of Germany will be against the supression. Do you think they'd accept it? If we factor in fear from the Soviets we do have to ask which is worse in the native's eyes. What would Lithuania be like in this timeline? Can the Estonians, Latvians and Livs live inside Germany peacfully? I think they could but I'm not sure.

I don't know if the Baltic people would be incorporated into the Empire right after the CP victory and if it will go successfully or not will depend on how the Germans treated their Baltic subjects.
 
The problem is the collapse of the Russian Empire also reawoken the Nationalism in the Baltic people/ The Baltic Germans were not considered in a friendly mannor by the natives as they had had to support the Czar. To have a role Germany would have had to win the war. It might be possible that the Germans could achieve some sort of role in the 1930's especially with the rising threat from the Soviet Union.
The Nationalism in the Baltic people reawaken long before the collapse of the Russian Empire.

Would a union under the Emperor eventually lead to the German Empire annexing the Duchy as a constituent state (a la Bavaria etc) ? In that case, the question of nationalism becomes no more than what is happening to the Polish minority in Posen, Silesia etc

The other point, though, is what part of a political settlement, does the establishment of the Baltic Duchy play ? It seems most likely that some kind of kingdom of Poland and some kind of Kingdom of Lithuania, both in the German sphere, would also come into being. Being national states outside of the Empire's direct control, they are likely to eventually strike out on their own, and this could stir up trouble

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
AFAIK there were some plans of that sorts to keep "legally" occupied territories of Russian Empire. That is where the story of Mindaugas II rose from.
 
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