WI Union Victory at Chickamauga

Hello all. I'm a frequent contributor to the After 1900 discussion board, but I occasionally wander over here to observe. Here is my question. The Battle of Chickamauga was the bloodiest fight in the Western Theater of the War. It was also the Confederate Army of Tennessee's greatest victory. My question is what if the confusion of orders didn't happen, and there wasn't a massive hole in the center of the Union line when Longstreet attacked? Would the Army of the Cumberland hold? If so, what happens next? On a bigger scale, if the AOC isn't besieged in Chatanooga, does Grant take command, in turn leading to his promotion to command the entire Union war effort?
 
As I understand it, Grand was really loved by Lincoln for his tenacity even before Vicksburg, and certainly after. I think Grant would be given command of the AotP without the interim - though whether he is placed there right away, I'm not sure. Meade's reluctance to attack entrenched positions the rest of the way in 1863 also played a part, I think, and so Grant and Sherman might just slug it out with the Confederates in Mississippi, perhaps taking Meridian a lot earlier.

I think where you'd see a bigger difference is in the Georgia region, where Rosecrans would suddenly have a *lot* more credibility. While I don't see him being moved to the AotP, I can see LIncoln asking him to try to move on Atlanta and their massive rail network, which would be interesting.

You might also see a better attempt as taking Mobile, Alabama. I'm not sure how readily they would move Sherman's men anywhere close, but that was seen as one of the major objectives.

On the Confederate side, if Bragg can't hold Chickamauga, I don't care how close he is to Jefferson Davis, he's getting the axe, though he'd probably be offered the chance to resign instead. He would have given up Chattanooga on his own to drop back there and then lost in what he claimed to be the best place to counter the Union. I suppose Longstreet could take the blame instead, but Lee did still rely on him so he'd probably just gets sent back there.

As to who replaces Bragg? Johnston versus Rosecrans would be interesting, but perhaps in this situation, Hardee would be willing. He wouldn't have been in the situation where he'd feel like Davis took Bragg's side like when the junior officers all asked for his removal earlier. In this spot, Davis would probably reluctantly ask Bragg to leave. So, perhaps Hardee and Rosecrans - which would be interesting.Hardee seems like he'd be better, perhaps, than Bragg or Johnston. (Then again, some of you all might be bettter than Bragg. :D)
 
Interesting analysis. I agree that Meade remaining commander of the AOTP is unlikely. From what I've read, it seems that Lincoln was not a big fan of his work post-Gettysburg. Of course it's hard to applaud marching around and trying to avoid a fight. Lincoln probably replaces him with Grant, as that's the only person who he could reasonably say had preferred consistently well enough to warrant it. Rosecrans would deserve some credit, but probably remains in command of the AOTC in it's push towards Atlanta. The Southern commander of the AOT is either Hardee or Johnston, I agree. Either way, Longstreet probably stays longer to prevent the destruction of the army. But Rosecrans won't move fast. Meanwhile Sherman moves towards Mobile. Regardless, after Gettysburg the Confederate war effort was in big trouble. The only hope was that Lincoln would be defeated in 1864, but that seems unlikely in this scenario.
 
Not sure its fair to say Meade was marching around trying to avoid a fight - even considering Lincoln's never sent letter involving Meade "nearly" (ha) bagging the ANV, he seems to have recognized that Meade was trying.

Not the man to win the war the way Grant OTL showed himself to be, but not a completely useless lump, either.
 
Not sure its fair to say Meade was marching around trying to avoid a fight - even considering Lincoln's never sent letter involving Meade "nearly" (ha) bagging the ANV, he seems to have recognized that Meade was trying.

Not the man to win the war the way Grant OTL showed himself to be, but not a completely useless lump, either.

Fair enough. Obviously he did a great job at Gettysburg, and he was quite competent during the Overland Campaign. IMO he could have done much more to whup Bobby Lee after G'Burg though.
 
Fair enough. Obviously he did a great job at Gettysburg, and he was quite competent during the Overland Campaign. IMO he could have done much more to whup Bobby Lee after G'Burg though.

Considering the condition of the Army of the Potomac's senior officer corps, and the size of said army (much depleted by Gettysburg casualties and troops sent to deal with the New York draft riots)?

I wouldn't say he couldn't have done more, but I do think that he had more handicaps in doing so than are acknowledged by his detractors.

This being said, Meade was not the kind of man who would definitely win the war, either. He was a fairly good army commander and a bit on the prudent-cautious side at that level, but not a great general the way Grant or Thomas (the only generals in the war who did shatter enemy armies) were.
 
Considering the condition of the Army of the Potomac's senior officer corps, and the size of said army (much depleted by Gettysburg casualties and troops sent to deal with the New York draft riots)?

I wouldn't say he couldn't have done more, but I do think that he had more handicaps in doing so than are acknowledged by his detractors.

This being said, Meade was not the kind of man who would definitely win the war, either. He was a fairly good army commander and a bit on the prudent-cautious side at that level, but not a great general the way Grant or Thomas (the only generals in the war who did shatter enemy armies) were.

What's funny is that Thomas was fairly prudent himself. He just happened to be pretty damn good once he did strike (fyi he's also my favorite general of the war).
 
A Union victory at Chickamauga is actually easier than it seems. Longstreet's Corps arrived late as it was, almost too late to affect the actual outcome of the battle. A day or two's delay in Longstreet's move east and the gap has no sudden force to exploit it. Over three days or possibly four, Rosecrans' advantages in firepower and in his army's leadership relative to that of Bragg tell and Longstreet's Corps arrives too late to save anything. Looking at the first day of Chickamauga, the Army of the Cumberland did quite well, and Bragg's plan, inflexibly adhered to always focused on attacking the very segment of the front held by George H. Thomas. He continues to do this, his plan miscarries tactically, and Union control of Chattanooga is consolidated in Chickamauga, which leads to the fall of Chattanooga immediately joining Vicksburg and Gettysburg in the litany of Confederate disasters. The implications for the Confederate anti-war elements are obviously important here, as is the absence of Burnside's Corps or the Union's first battle conducted with an army group. The Union victory at Chickamauga will also strengthen further Republican optimism, while increasing the Confederate malaise in a front starting in Georgia in the fall of 1863. Another long-term butterfly of vital importance is that the Confederate position in the East will be much worse if, say, Longstreet assumes command in the West, while if someone like Patrick Cleburne takes command of the major CS Army of the West, the CSA's position could dramatically improve or Cleburne could pull a Hood.

Hood, I might note, was instrumental to a lot of Lee's victories as a subordinate but in command never won a battle. Cleburne could prove a Confederate Thomas or a Hood analogue.
 
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