WI: Unified Vietnam in 1700

Hi everyone,

So, I was reading around for my podcast project (FR) (shameless plug).

In the XVIIth century, Vietnam as a whole was very powerful. The riflemen were better trained than the Europeans, they had a good enough navy, their own foundry and a large, well trained population and militaries, based on rich deltas.

They also had a solid, modern state organised around the Chinese model.

However, for two centuries, they consumed themselves in civil war between the Trinh and the N'Guyen. So, what if one side got the upper hand?

The Trinh were traditionally the strongest, with a much larger population based in the Hanoi delta, but they had to face the Mac/Chinese in the North.
The N'Guyen had a massive wall at Dong Hoi as well as a stupidly high amount of artillery, giving them a defensive advantage.

Traditionally, the Vietnamese have been conquerors, preying on Champa/Cambodia.

So what if one side got the upper hand in the late XVIIth century (probably the Trinh if they get past the wall) and unifies Vietnam? They would need 10/20 years of consolidation but after that, do you think and they could go forth and conquer around?

Cambodia certainly seems like a juicy target
 
Isn't Cambodia the only realistic target, since there's a mountain range between Vietnam and the Lao states to keep any Vietnamese control strictly nominal? And Vietnam's control over those areas already was pretty nominal, so at some point it isn't even a conquest, just a place waiting to split apart. And trying to conquer bits of China is highly doubtful.

So how far could Vietnam get in Cambodia? They seem to have done a good job at displacing the Khmers and Champa from a lot of what is now Southern Vietnam. And even now, there are parts of Cambodia which have a significant Vietnamese minority (even moreso pre-Pol Pot since Vietnamese were specifically targetted then). Maybe a unified Vietnam could entirely displace the Khmer in Cambodia and end up making the Khmer a minority in their own country. But that means they have to secure it first, and isn't that why Cambodia was relatively content with being a Siamese vassal, because it gave them protection from Vietnam and the Siamese were more likely to leave them alone? And that's why France got invited to Cambodia, so Cambodia could have a protector better than Siam?
 
Cambodia is, in the first stage, the only realistic target, yes.

However, the Vietnamese are master colonialists, so Cambodia could be absorbed in a few decades, Vietnam certainly has the capability. Once you have Cambodia, you have an open front with Thailand, which opens another can of worms.

Vietnam could also possibly grab bits and pieces of southern China, maybe the island of Hainan?, in a time of instability/dynasty change. Yunnan doesn't seem out of reach for a very conquerant Vietnam, it often had loose ties with China.

Another option is to go for some Indonesian islands but it would be surprising, Vietnam is a land power
 
It would take a solid, consistent alliance with Burma for anything long-term against Thailand. And Yunnan has the same issue as the Lao states, assuming you'd want long-term rule like nowadays South Vietnam.
 
It would take a solid, consistent alliance with Burma for anything long-term against Thailand. And Yunnan has the same issue as the Lao states, assuming you'd want long-term rule like nowadays South Vietnam.
Well, I'm not going for a wank. It could happen that they grow too bold and get a clout on the nose as a result. That's certainly what happened to them in 1403 after all.

I would think a unified Vietnam would probably cut itself further from European contact as they only kept those for the influx of guns. But if the Trinh absorb the N'Guyen, they could develop the existing foundries.
 
Cambodia is, in the first stage, the only realistic target, yes.

However, the Vietnamese are master colonialists, so Cambodia could be absorbed in a few decades, Vietnam certainly has the capability. Once you have Cambodia, you have an open front with Thailand, which opens another can of worms.

Vietnam could also possibly grab bits and pieces of southern China, maybe the island of Hainan?, in a time of instability/dynasty change. Yunnan doesn't seem out of reach for a very conquerant Vietnam, it often had loose ties with China.

Another option is to go for some Indonesian islands but it would be surprising, Vietnam is a land power
By the Ming Dynasty,Yunnan was solidly Chinese,but it would be interesting to see what would happen if Vietnam grabbed it.IIRC,wasn't there an attempt by the Vietnamese to try and conquer Guangxi and Guangdong sometime during the reign of Qianglong?
 
At that time period Vietnam was still quite divided. I don't have my history books with me so I can't say for sure they tried a land grab in the early 1700's but they definitely started to try in 1400 before getting the Chinese angry
 

raharris1973

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The Natural target after Cambodia is Thailand, but it is not really plausible for them to win. I think Vietnam going for any part of China is right out, it's too risky. That leaves the northern coast of Borneo as the only other target for their navy. Maybe Palawan from the Philippines too.
 
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