WI unified non communist neutral Korea from 1993?

China would subordinate a neutral Korea by 2019

  • Yes

    Votes: 9 36.0%
  • No

    Votes: 16 64.0%

  • Total voters
    25

raharris1973

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what if the the North Korean regime fell and the Koreas reunified but as part of the deal US troops left? All this happened by 1993. The rest of the world was the same up to that point. Has China bullied, subordinated or otherwise made Korea its “bitch” by 2019?
 
what if the the North Korean regime fell and the Koreas reunified but as part of the deal US troops left? All this happened by 1993. The rest of the world was the same up to that point. Has China bullied, subordinated or otherwise made Korea its “bitch” by 2019?

No, because if it starts to try that... well everyone knows that Korea can dial up the US and offer some basing rights in about 15 minutes time. Which the US will probably accept, and which China cannot stop short of an invasion and war with the US. The same agreement with China which got the US troops out can be revoked in a heartbeat if they start acting aggressive.
 
No, because if it starts to try that... well everyone knows that Korea can dial up the US and offer some basing rights in about 15 minutes time. Which the US will probably accept, and which China cannot stop short of an invasion and war with the US. The same agreement with China which got the US troops out can be revoked in a heartbeat if they start acting aggressive.

China would likely be a united neutral Korea's largest and closest trading partners and they some have interests in common (stance on Japan etc). The PRC probably wouldn't militarily bring Korea into line, they'd likely exert soft power and political/business influence.

United Korea would likely be a wealthy state in its own right (especially if it can avoid about 25 years of the Kims butt fucking the North) and barring some really damaging incident torching relations, they'd probably be on pretty good terms with Beijing. I imagine you'd probably have your pro-Western political parties, and pro-Chinese parties vying for influence.

I don't think they'd be completely sub-ordinate, but China would be an ever present influence. As the decades moved on who knows?
 
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IOTL there has been substantial opposition to the presence of US troops in South Korea, and of course Korea-Japan relations have always been tense. A collapse of the Kim regime by 1993 might result in pressure for a US troop drawdown, or even the complete removal of US forces, and for China to be seen as a more natural ally of the newly united Republic of Korea.
 
United Korea would likely be a wealthy state in its own right (especially if it can avoid about 25 years of the Kims butt fucking the North...
Depends on how you define 'wealthy'. Even if you avoid the precipitous drop-off of more recent times North Korea is still going to be fairly underdeveloped, East Germany as one of the most efficient and developed communist states was miles ahead of them and Germany nowadays is still having to send large transfer payments to the former GDR Länder as I understand things.
 
Depends on how you define 'wealthy'. Even if you avoid the precipitous drop-off of more recent times North Korea is still going to be fairly underdeveloped, East Germany as one of the most efficient and developed communist states was miles ahead of them and Germany nowadays is still having to send large transfer payments to the former GDR Länder as I understand things.

Oh yeah don't get me wrong, there would be a lot of work and money going into fixing the North. Even by 2019 they'd be the poorer part of the nation, but things got really "1984" in NK through the 90's under Kim Jong Il what with the flooding, famine and military build up etc. Hopefully the stagnated economy in the North could be mitigated somewhat with earlier intervention and the famine avoided (expensive but doable) which would put it in a better position by 2019. I agree through, lots of money would be spent up there. Maybe not super wealthy, but well off?
 
I could see the US insisting on a reduced military presence in a unified Korea just to show the flag and also provide local jobs (the economy, you know). Also there would be some sort of agreement with the PRC on not allowing US forces and military exercises close to the Yalu, creating a special Yalu border neutral zone ( a la Star Trek).
 
Strategically, any regime in China, especially one with an adverse relationship with the USA, would do better by basically playing off a unified Korea and Japan against each other, occasionally intervening as a "neutral arbiter."
 
... expensive but doable...
Legally North and South Korea were still at war, my general solution to the problem of the North when it's come up in the past has been for the South to implement a military government like the Allies did in Germany after the Second World War. It allows them to keep the population contained, gives them a freer hand legally, and allows them to build up the North–both its people and its infrastructure–over a longer period. Let South Korean companies to set up factories in the North, much like our timeline's Kaesong Industrial Zone, and even paying what the locals would consider good wages it would probably allow them to continue to compete with China whose export boom was just taking off around then IIRC.
 
Legally North and South Korea were still at war, my general solution to the problem of the North when it's come up in the past has been for the South to implement a military government like the Allies did in Germany after the Second World War. It allows them to keep the population contained, gives them a freer hand legally, and allows them to build up the North–both its people and its infrastructure–over a longer period. Let South Korean companies to set up factories in the North, much like our timeline's Kaesong Industrial Zone, and even paying what the locals would consider good wages it would probably allow them to continue to compete with China whose export boom was just taking off around then IIRC.

Reckon the famines could be avoided?
 
Korea was pretty much pushed around by China and Japan over the years so I reckon they’d wanna avoid being either “subordinate.” They might accept US presence and assistance
 
Reckon the famines could be avoided?
Probably. Whilst the former North's agricultural sector is still likely to be sub-optimal for some time–until help in the form of teaching and supplies such as fertiliser and equipment arrive–and weather conditions the same the new government has the advantage of being open to the world and well off enough to be able to buy in foodstuffs. The larger difficulty would possibly be the logistical challenge of getting it where it needs to be.
 
what if the the North Korean regime fell and the Koreas reunified but as part of the deal US troops left? All this happened by 1993. The rest of the world was the same up to that point. Has China bullied, subordinated or otherwise made Korea its “bitch” by 2019?

To be honest, the best model for foreign policy in that case is probably the most unlikely candidate within the region, and that happens to be Mongolia. Mongolia had long been a battleground for competing influence between Russia and China, including time as part of China and as a satellite state of the Soviet Union. After Mongolia transitioned away from Communism, they wanted to be neutral/equidistant from both countries, and designed its political system and foreign policy precisely to achieve that aim. Korea could be similar in that respect, though complicated by reunification costs and all that. In that case, Korea would be neutral with respect to Russia, China, the US, and Japan. The simplest method for reunification could involve some form of federalism or decentralization à la Japan or Colombia (which would be a difference from the Mongolian model), with (most of) the former North Korean and South Korean administrative divisions coexisting side by side and the DMZ as a national peace park. China would have its role, but with Korea equidistant from all powers that would try to dominate it China wouldn't attempt to subordinate/bully/etc. a unified Korea as it hasn't dared with Mongolia. Russia, too, would want a port area for those times when Vladivostok would be unavailable (the Soviet Union worked out an arrangement with North Korea for this via Rajin, now the Rason special city), and the oligarchs would definitely want a Cyprus-like entity to park their cash just in case. The US would keep an eye via Japan; at the same time, though, although US troops would leave that would exclude the rest of United Nations Command, so some US presence would remain as part of UNC, which could be reorganized as a temporary peacekeeping force and could help enforce neutrality (another difference from the Mongolian model).
 
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