WI: UN victory in Korean War

RousseauX

Donor
Let's say in 1950 or so Mao dies due to a heart attack and China is a beset by a succession crisis which paralyzes its foreign policy at a crucial moment, thus it does not intervene in late 1950 against the UN force approaching the Yalu. Thus by early 1951 the North Korean regime is finished and the RoK flag flies over all of Korea.

What happens in East Asia afterwards with a unified US aligned Korea ? Does the US get more gun-ho about direct interventions against Communism afterwards? Is there changes for the First Indochina war?
 

Kaze

Banned
Since the Korean War has not yet ended - no peace treaty, just a temporary armistice - you might currently call it a draw. So... in theory, you could call it a victory if you are fighting for a draw.
 

CalBear

Moderator
Donor
Monthly Donor
Since the Korean War has not yet ended - no peace treaty, just a temporary armistice - you might currently call it a draw. So... in theory, you could call it a victory if you are fighting for a draw.
Actually the UN won. The goal was to restore the ROK. Done.

The U.S. and the de facto anti-communist coalition, in the person of Douglas MacArthur, lost because it refused to accept a big W.
 
I think the fact that you're killing Mao in this scenario is far more consequential for history than the peninsula being united by the Republic of Korea.
 

RousseauX

Donor
I think the fact that you're killing Mao in this scenario is far more consequential for history than the peninsula being united by the Republic of Korea.
Sure, and it will be felt by the 1980s but it's not like China is going to be economic tiger when 1950s era party still wanted Soviet style planned economy. Whether the Sino-Soviet split still happens is an open question though.
 

Jack Brisco

Banned
at least 30 million more will live, not starved to death by Mao's 'Great Leap Forward'


And Heaven knows how many will live due to no Cultural Revolution.

Far as the ROK goes, the US will need to help with the rebuilding effort, as such. In general, the speed of the war limited destruction, but in 1950 both Koreas were rather impoverished countries. US will also need to help maintain the ROK forces and maintain a US military presence on the Korean Peninsula. Just too close to the PRC and USSR not to.

If he deems it appropriate, Truman could quietly tell Stalin that the US forces in Korea are there for defensive purposes only. Whether Stalin will believe it is a different matter. The same thing could be passed to the new PRC leadership, and also letting them know any attempt to come into Korea will be repulsed, any way we have to, but Korea prefers to live in peace with its' neighbors.
 

RousseauX

Donor
And Heaven knows how many will live due to no Cultural Revolution.

Far as the ROK goes, the US will need to help with the rebuilding effort, as such. In general, the speed of the war limited destruction, but in 1950 both Koreas were rather impoverished countries. US will also need to help maintain the ROK forces and maintain a US military presence on the Korean Peninsula. Just too close to the PRC and USSR not to.

If he deems it appropriate, Truman could quietly tell Stalin that the US forces in Korea are there for defensive purposes only. Whether Stalin will believe it is a different matter. The same thing could be passed to the new PRC leadership, and also letting them know any attempt to come into Korea will be repulsed, any way we have to, but Korea prefers to live in peace with its' neighbors.
Stalin was willing to tolerate US forces on the Korean-Soviet border otl and felt the USSR wasn't ready for a war yet that's why he told Kim to go to Mao when asked for aid, if the Chinese don't intervene he would have accepted US presence "temporarily" (he will die before that temporary expires)
 

Jack Brisco

Banned
Stalin was willing to tolerate US forces on the Korean-Soviet border otl and felt the USSR wasn't ready for a war yet that's why he told Kim to go to Mao when asked for aid, if the Chinese don't intervene he would have accepted US presence "temporarily" (he will die before that temporary expires)


Sadly, in OTL Korea was divided through the efforts of the USA. When the war with Japan was almost over we looked at Korea and decided we couldn't occupy the entire peninsula quickly. So two US officers drew up the dividing line at the 38th parallel. If they knew then what we know now they would have said to drop paratroopers at points along the Yalu and tell the Soviets to stay out. The Soviets would have stayed out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea
 
Top