WI: Umberto I of Italy assassinated in 1878

Umberto I was famously killed in 1900 by an anarchist in revenge for the massacre of food rioters in Milan two years prior. He had already survived another anarchist assassin in 1878, only months after coming to the throne. What if he didn't?

Victor Emmanuel III had just turned 9 years old when the plot was carried out. How would Italy be governed during the regency of 7(?) years? Would a royal relative dominate? Would politicians flex their muscle and try to make the country more democratic? Would this trigger an earlier Red Scare across Europe and America? Perhaps an increase in similar attacks by anarchists?

Without Umberto would Italy's leaders agree to the Triple Alliance in 1882? And without his personal interest in an East African empire, would Italian colonisation efforts be different?

Also would 15 more years on the throne effect VE3? Initially IOTL he made a point of being a constitutional monarch and not organising a major crackdown after his father's murder. However by the 1920s he was very tired with the chaos of Italian democracy, having to constantly intervene and we all know how that went.

Would his father's death in 1878 have a greater impact on VE3 as a child? Would he be more concerned with working-class radicals and "the mob" in general? Or if he does try to be a liberal figurehead is his patience for democracy simply worn down earlier? By the earlier 1900s may VE3 be looking to strong military men to rule as a proto-Duce?
 
Colonizations and the Triple Alliance will be go more or less as OTL, they were greatly independent of any royal decision even if Umberto supported them...but a renewal of such alliance (expecially in 1902 when not at given) is a different thing if the King support or not such decision.

Well VEIII will be a very different man; Umberto was a very stern, cold and distant father and that greatly shaped VE characters.
I don't much of dynastic succession but yes a regency for the young King will be set up or even (if possible) the former king of Spain (Amedeo, brother of Umberto) will be crowned or more probably set up as regent.

Frankly a weaker monarchy will be probably be good for the goverment as without much intereference from House Savoy, things will be in general smoother and the OTL authoritarian streak of Umberto.
 
The influence of the Queen Mother, Margherita, is likely to remain strong and will contribute to the character of VEIII. Margherita was strongly leaning toward the conservatives, her influence will not be a positive thing.
Umberto's brother Amedeo (the former king of Spain) would certainly be on the Regency Council. IIRC he was more liberal than the other Savoys, but IOTL he did not appear to be very much interested in politics. Maybe the death of Umberto will force him to play a bigger role (and incidentally may help him to live longer: his death in 1890 of pneumonia is not a given ITTL).
In theory the long regency might represent an opportunity for parliament to whittle away the royal prerogatives as outlined in the Statute of 1848. In practice, none of the dominant politicians has the capacity to hold together a government for long, much less to take advantage of the opportunity to start a long-term policy to introduce needed internal reforms and to concoct a sensible international policy. The only exception is Crispi, but at the time of the Passanante's assassination (November 1878) Crispi is a political pariah (he was accused of bigamy. While the accusation did not stand up in court, his "irregular" private life was more than enough to kill a political career. Crispi madea surprising come-back, and became PM in 1887, but it took him almost 10 years to clean up his name). If Crispi's scandal is avoided somehow (and he remains minister of the interior)it is possible that the electoral reform comes earlier, and that the government is more sympathetic to the plight of southern Italy: this would certainly be a plus, but still far away from solving all the internal problems of Italy. I do not see any likely change on the international scene, and the alliance with Germany and A-H is almost certain to go forward. There are possible butterflies coming up in the colonial game, though. Crispi did not believe that an expansion in Eritrea was in the interest of Italy, but after French protectorate on Tunisia was convinced Italy should play a role in Egypt (IOTL he informally met Gladstone in London at the time of the Egyptian crisis). It is possible that a Crispi ministry would follow up on this policy, with a joint British-Italian intervention in Egypt. Lots of "ifs" and "maybes", and everything would be predicated on Crispi being able to ensure the government is stable. I'd give him a chance in four to succeed.
 
Top