WI: Umayyad victory at Covadonga?

Dorozhand

Banned
What if Pelagius of Asturias had been defeated by the Arabs at Covadonga and the nascent Asturian state had been absorbed along with the last Christian redoubts in Hispania?

How would subsequent history have progressed?
Would Al-Andalus have lasted much longer and as a united polity?
Or would the Taifa conflicts have still fractured it?
Even in the event of fracture, would Islamic Spain still have been conquered at some point or would it have likely remained a collection of Muslim nations into the alt modern era?
Without Christian kingdoms in the north as a thorn in its side, would Al-Andalus have had more opportunity to look outwards?
How would its relationship with the Christian states of Europe have evolved?
Might it have colonized the Americas at some point?
 
Covadonga is an heavily mythified event in the Christian side, with an importance blowned out of its historical proportions.
While there's no reason to think it never happened (after all it is considered by Muslim sources), a good part of what we know about it must be taken really cautiously.

What was probably more important would be a continuous harassing of Berber forces that were present in the region, trough a policy of fortification on the highlands, and the battle itself a glorified skirmish.

the nascent Asturian state had been absorbed along with the last Christian redoubts in Hispania?

Well, it's what happened IOTL : there's nothing pointing out that Christian holdings on northern Spain (rather than Asturian state, a collection of entities as Galicia, Asturias, Cantabrias, Pyrenean holdings, etc.) weren't under the dominance, even if undirect, of the wali. (Eventually, the kingship over Christians, the first name of this political entity, was built on the alliance of several small chiefdoms and the remains of the Duchy of Cantabria)
Pelayo basically refused to pay the tributes he payed before, implying he was under Arabo-Berber dominance (you had plenty of Christian entities in this case, not only in north-western highlands, but as well in Murcia, Septimania, in Lusitania, etc.)

(Remember that Musa ibn Nussair campaigned all the way trough Cantabrian Sea in the early 710's)

Now, what would have happened if Pelaio lost the battle? We're talking of a minor battle there, probably a mere skirmish.

Basically, you broke the legitimacy of a local chieftain about imposing his hegemon on northern central Cantabrian Highlands. If he dies, I would likely see the Dukes of Cantabria having the lead there (after all they were the main family in the region, and ended to takeover the Kingdom of Christians IOTL after the death of Favila).

The consequences, undubiously, would be limited : the main focus would remain Gaul and Cantabrian highlands would remain the god-forgotten hell-hole it was during Visigothic times until the unavoidable Berber revolt strikes on.
 
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