WI: Ukraine's Navy with the Admiral Kuznetsov Aircraft Carrier as her Flagship?

[Pesigalam]

So every couple of months this site seems to have a thread to the effect of "what if Ukraine got to keep the Soviet nuclear arsenal/a multi-million men army/Tu-160 bombers, etc", often with follow up questions with the regards "how would this impact the Maiden movement/the current Ukrainian Civil War" (because obviously huge PODs like that wouldn't cause any butterflies before quarter-century afterwards or something )

So I've decided to try my hand at a (slightly) less silly "Ukraine-strok" thread. I present to you the initial POD:

Following the collapse of the USSR, the Admiral Kuznetsov could have been inherited by Ukraine, which claimed ownership of it. In 1991, the ship, then assigned to the Northern Fleet, underwent tests with the Black Sea Fleet in Feodosia, leaving it in Ukrainian territory. However, the first deputy commander of the Northern Fleet flew to Ukraine at once and stepped in. The vice admiral gave the order to raise the anchor immediately and head for Severodvinsk. With its navigation lights off, the ship left its harbor and spent more than three weeks sailing to its permanent base without any aircraft and without two thirds of its crew, who were off-duty at the time. Having saved the aircraft carrier, the vice admiral rightly judged that the sailors would “catch us by train,” and that the aircraft remaining at the onshore airbase would “get there by themselves.”

So let's say the first deputy commander of the Northern Fleet never flies to Ukraine and the ship remains part of the Ukrainian navy because possession is 9/10th of the law. Let's alos assume that for whatever reason Kuznetsov is not sold to the Chinese like her sister ship.

How might Ukraine use the ship? Would it take part in Ukraine's deployment to Iraq for example?

 

[cpip]

I doubt that it will be in any better shape than it has been under the Russian flag -- so if it does participate, it likely will end up demonstrating its engineering and mechanical issues under Ukrainian command instead of Russian. Perhaps the Ukrainian government decides it's not worth preserving and sells it off -- perhaps the Chinese buy it along with Varyag, or instead of it.

 

[Coiler]

Ukraine couldn't afford to run it, and would have no need for it even if it did, so it would get either sold off, scrapped, or in a "best" case scenario stuck in Crimea and seized by the Russians.

 

[pdf27]

I think the fundamental problem is that the most complex warship they are currently able to operate is a single Krivak III frigate (i.e. the border guard variant - with a single SA-8 installation and a 100mm gun). There is zero chance they'd be able to run a far more complex warship - at best they sell it back to the Russians, at worst it ends up like Santísima Trinidad...

 

[James G]

I'd agree that the carrier would not be viable for the Ukrainian Navy to operate even in a half-hearted way.

 

[Hussar01]

Why a carrier? For the Black Sea? An decent airforce from the Ukrainian shore can cover all of the Black Sea. A Carrier is used to project power far from shore, a task the Ukraine has zero interest in or need.

 

[anotherlurker]

Maybe if the Varyag and Ulyanovsk are finished when the dissolution happens?

Russia inherits the Var and Uly, Ukraine gets the Kuz, all three spend the next 15 years rusting in the harbor and the Kuz gets probably sold to China due to a lack of money to keep it floating and no carrier capable aircraft while the Uly and Var get "overhauled" once oil money keeps hitting the Russian military.

 

[GSpectre]

Could it have been sold to India, and the funds invested in the Ukrainian military? Or just selling it to china for the same result. I doubt that the ship itself would have been of any use to the Ukrainians but perhaps they could have made something out of selling it.

 

[Pesigalam]

Why a carrier? For the Black Sea?

Because Dick Waving Prestige. Much like Brazil or Italy or Spain or any number of nations that have/had carriers that mostly sit in port, but nevertheless allow said nations the title of being one of a handful of nations with "operational" aircraft carriers.

Now granted, I admit that if Ukraine would have retained Kuz the most likely outcome is that it ends up being sold to the Chinese. Which is why I specifically said in the OP "Let's alos assume that for whatever reason Kuznetsov is not sold to the Chinese".

So back to the topic at hand: Ukraine OTL participated in a number of (albeit minor) peacekeeping/military missions such as a deployment of troops in Ira and UN peacekeeping missions in Africa. Could Admiral Kuznetsov be potentially used on a number of them? If not as an aircraft carrier, than as a missile boat?

 

[Not James Stockdale]

The only plausible thing the Ukrainians do is sell it back to Russia at scap-dealer prices, which are all anybody would pay for it.

 

[Lost Freeway]

So I've decided to try my hand at a (slightly) less silly "Ukraine-strok" thread.

This thread is "slightly" less silly in the same sense that being set on fire is a "slightly" less unpleasant way to die than being dipped in acid: i.e. not at all.

 

[thezerech]

Honestly, considering what we're doing to the Україна I doubt we'll hold on to a CV. Most likely sell it to India, or the Chinese. Granted, in this case Ukraine might receive most of the Black Sea fleet, and if Ukraine decides that the Russians can keep the hell out of Sevastopol. Which I don't think is particularly likely. If we keep most of the BSF then most of it will be sold. However, Ukraine would keep more than OTL, maybe some more frigates or a cruiser.

 

[Hussar01]

Because Dick Waving Prestige. Much like Brazil or Italy or Spain or any number of nations that have/had carriers that mostly sit in port, but nevertheless allow said nations the title of being one of a handful of nations with "operational" aircraft carriers.

Now granted, I admit that if Ukraine would have retained Kuz the most likely outcome is that it ends up being sold to the Chinese. Which is why I specifically said in the OP "Let's alos assume that for whatever reason Kuznetsov is not sold to the Chinese".

So back to the topic at hand: Ukraine OTL participated in a number of (albeit minor) peacekeeping/military missions such as a deployment of troops in Ira and UN peacekeeping missions in Africa. Could Admiral Kuznetsov be potentially used on a number of them? If not as an aircraft carrier, than as a missile boat?

Sorry but being on the Atlantic and the Black is totaly different. Once again, why? The Black Sea can be completely covered by avaition from the mainland. Bazil and Spain cannot cover their interests in the Atlantic solely from the mainland. So not a question of prestige why they have carriers but they have true strategic arguments for it. Not so for the Black Sea.