WI: Ukraine retained their Soviet-era arsenal

What if the Ukrainian government, after the fall of the Soviet Union, decided to retain their nuclear weapons (which was 1/3rds of the former USSR's nuclear arsenal) and in addition, the Ukrainians retained the Black Sea Fleet, the 780,000 strong army, and their large amount of tanks. What happens next with such a militarily powerful Ukraine?
 
Just looking at nuclear weapons, for Ukraine to keep them might actually lead to *more* Russian intervention--Putin sends in troops to save Yanukovych because "we can't allow Ukraine's nukes to fall into the hands of an anti-Russian government."
 
Would Putin invade a Nuclear Nation? That's unlikely, after all, the point of Nuclear Weapons is to serve as a deterrent.
 
Just looking at nuclear weapons, for Ukraine to keep them might actually lead to *more* Russian intervention--Putin sends in troops to save Yanukovych because "we can't allow Ukraine's nukes to fall into the hands of an anti-Russian government."

Putin is not going to risk his entire country on that stuff, he's agressive yes but he has never been sucidal and woulden't risk his own country in that manner.
 
By the time the whole Ukraine fiasco occurs, the arsenal would have basically wasted away. The Ukrainians just didn't have the infrastructure by themselves to maintain them.
 
Then they could build it up.
Create a better economy.
Lesser corruption.
More modern army.

Would be an act of an ASB but it might be possible.
A brilliant leader / industrialist / economist.
 
It's entirely possible for a pair of nuclear-armed countries to be at war. Look at India and Pakistan, for instance.

In this particular scenario, an inherently smaller and more vulnerable Ukraine might well be placed in a position where the Ukrainian leadership might think they had to be used else the country would be lost. Russia, for its part, might also be faced with a perceived need to try to preempt Ukraine. Disaster could easily result.

The big problem with this POD is that hardly any Ukrainians seem to have wanted nuclear weapons. The Ukrainian government was happy to exchange them for security guarantees which had seemed credible at the time. Perhaps this might be different if the Ukrainians did perceive a potential threat from Russia, but would the West acquiesce in Ukrainian nuclearization?
 
So, how would the lack of a Black Sea Fleet (or a far smaller one) affect Russia's strategy as Ukraine dominates the Black Sea?
 
The problem is that 1/3 of Soviet Army is too much for Ukraine even with reasonably prosperous economy. It would probably ruin said economy anyway. They could retain Black Sea Fleet by being more stubborn to Russian demands. But again, they would not have much use for it except to sell piecemeal or wholesale until reduced to reasonable levels. Main benefit would be to deny Russians one, but at the time relations were not that hostile.
Full military is unlikely as many officers and soldiers were not from Ukraine. And 2% of total population serving in the military in the peacetime is bordering North Korea.
Nukes decay with time, they need service and replacement. Very costly ones. I doubt than Ukraine has or had full production circle.
So unless Ukraine wanted to use that military immediately (Ukraine Empire TL :), there was no real point clinging to it. In fact, what they had was entirely sufficient to ward against anything short of US. Sure, a few nukes on starting positions may prove useful against Darth Vlad, but so is fully functional and equipped army Ukraine should have possessed OTL.
 
Putin is not going to risk his entire country on that stuff, he's agressive yes but he has never been sucidal and woulden't risk his own country in that manner.

How is it suicidal if he intervenes with the existing Yanukovych Ukrainian government (which after all controls the nukes) on his side (indeed, precisely to save it)?
 
How is it suicidal if he intervenes with the existing Yanukovych Ukrainian government (which after all controls the nukes) on his side (indeed, precisely to save it)?
What if the commanders of the Ukrainian nuclear silos were anti-Yanukovych and pro-Maidan protestors?
 

Wendigo

Banned
What if the Ukrainian government, after the fall of the Soviet Union, decided to retain their nuclear weapons (which was 1/3rds of the former USSR's nuclear arsenal) and in addition, the Ukrainians retained the Black Sea Fleet, the 780,000 strong army, and their large amount of tanks. What happens next with such a militarily powerful Ukraine?
How many nukes is a third?
 

Pesigalam

Banned
What if the Ukrainian government, after the fall of the Soviet Union, decided to retain their nuclear weapons (which was 1/3rds of the former USSR's nuclear arsenal) and in addition, the Ukrainians retained the Black Sea Fleet, the 780,000 strong army, and their large amount of tanks. What happens next with such a militarily powerful Ukraine?
We seem to have this exact same thread pop up every few months. Seeing it always makes me wonder if the only experience in military or economic maters the people making these threads have comes from RTS or Civilization games.

Short answer: Ukraine's economy goes belly up even sooner than OTL from attempting to maintain such an arsenal.

Long answer:
What if the Ukrainian government, after the fall of the Soviet Union, decided to retain their nuclear weapons (which was 1/3rds of the former USSR's nuclear arsenal)
The warheads might have been in Ukraine but the launch codes and C&C were in Russia. They would be useless to Ukraine without significant expenditure of resources and OTL Ukraine gave them up in exchange for debt forgiveness.
and in addition, the Ukrainians retained the Black Sea Fleet,
Even if due to ASB intervention Russia gives up all claims to the Black Sa Fleet and associated facilities... what's stopping sailors from defecting and taking their vessels to Russia? There was a number of such incidents in 1990s OTL (both when it comes to Ukrainian Navy defecting to Russia and Russian Navy defecting to Ukraine). The Soviet-era aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov came into the possession of the Russian Navy in an incident like that.
the 780,000 strong army, and their large amount of tanks.
Ukraine's OTL conscript army has uber-low moral, issues with draft-dodging, soldiers not getting paid, etc. This is why in the ongoing civil war Ukraine had to make due with hodgepodge militias of questionable loyalty.

As to the tanks, OTL Russia returned the Ukrainian T-64 tanks from Crimea to Ukraine. They were in such poor shape that many of them could not move under their own power. So where is this ATL Ukriane getting the cash to maintain even more tanks?
 
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