WI : Ukraine kept its nuclear weapons ?

How would events today be different if Ukraine had held on to at least some of its nuclear arsenal after the collapse of the USSR ?
 
I guess it depends on how they address the concerns about them falling into wrong hands. Remember the scares about Russian ones ? 200 tactical nukes missing, suicase nukes missing, whole bunch of materials missing, scientists seeking employment elsewhere? With Ukraine it would be much worse.

If Ukraine decides to keep them I suspect there would be a lot of pressure (read bribes) for them to give the up and hand them to Russians or dismantle the.
 

Redhand

Banned
I can't see Putin being half as provocative over the Crimea and Donetsk if a reasonable nuclear deterrent existed. Then again, I don't think that Russia would have accepted a nuclear Ukraine to begin with. If Ukraine had nukes, Putin may have quashed the Orange Revolution while the West was concerned over the Middle East. However, I think the West would include a nuclear Ukraine in NATO to be able to influence the country to avoid antiRussian radicalism and a nuclear exchange, so who knows what could've happened.
 
I'd have to agree with Noah Millman on this: "What seems most likely to me is that, if Ukraine had an independent nuclear deterrent, Putin would have intervened much earlier to make sure that Yanukovich remained in power. He certainly wouldn’t risk a Ukrainian nuclear deterrent falling into the hands of an anti-Russian party." http://www.theamericanconservative.com/millman/would-a-nuclear-ukraine-still-hold-crimea/

I can't see Putin being half as provocative over the Crimea and Donetsk if a reasonable nuclear deterrent existed. Then again, I don't think that Russia would have accepted a nuclear Ukraine to begin with. If Ukraine had nukes, Putin may have quashed the Orange Revolution while the West was concerned over the Middle East. However, I think the West would include a nuclear Ukraine in NATO to be able to influence the country to avoid antiRussian radicalism and a nuclear exchange, so who knows what could've happened.

You guys don't think Ukrainian nuclear weapons would produce butterflies in those 8 years?
 
nukes are expensive and ukraine is constantly broke.

the worry over missing ukrainian bombs due to sloppy handling, incompetence or oligarchs/army personnel looking to make a quick buck would be bigger than the worry over iraqi or north korean bombs.
 

Delta Force

Banned
Not to mention the delivery systems. Ukraine's rocket forces have left much to be desired and have had many accidents over the years.

The Ukrainians inherited the factories that built many of Russia's ballistic missiles. They also acquired most of the Tu-160 fleet, as well as several 5u-22M and Tu-95 strategic bombers and Su-24 strike aircraft.
 
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