Admittedly, virtually all of those years were Could've Been Toppled years according to Senior Labour Sources (TM), but I see your point.
Wasn't yet an MP. Corby was a Labour gain in the 2012 by-election and didn't revert until 2015.
I wonder if a victory in Heywood could lead to Labour defections to UKIP - there was speculation about Simon Danczuk at the time, and then there's Kate "TUV" Hoey...
That seems quite unlikely, especially Dancuck; we'd need to go through the list of MPs who voted Leave with a fine toothcomb.
Phillip Hollobone seems likely, given that he went onto do a pact with UKIP where he would report to their members in his constituency once a week in exchange for them standing down, despite the fact there was no realistic chance of them making much of a difference even if Kettering werent pretty safely Tory.
Bill Cash seems a distinct possibility - perhaps he might follow his son into UKIP?
Cash seems an obvious one, but looking back on the rumour mill during that parliament, his name never really seriously came up as a potential defector. The ones generally cited were Hollobone, Nigel Mills (Amber Valley) Martin Vickers (Cleethorpes) David Nuttall (Bury North) Chris Kelly (Dudley South) Peter Bone (Wellingborough) Mark Pritchard (the Wrekin) and John Baron (Basildon and Billericay). I wouldn't rule out some joining from Labour as well. Maybe Kate Hoey or Simon Danczuk?
I think Danczuk would only really join if he was in the situation he was in after the election; Hoey maybe, but I don't see her jumping unless the Council Group finally get her deselected or UKIP do really well in Labour seats in the election.
I have severe doubts that Labour could actually win in a scenario where they've deselected Hoey and she's fighting back, largely because of how toxic it would be, and because the only candidate the local association would have accepted would have been someone who was involved in the deselected (it was Steve Reed, IIRC, until he was picked up for Croydon North by-election), or someone parachuted in. Any other year and I would argue it could have been a decent LibDem pickup, but in 2015, if Labour suffer thanks to UKIP surging... I think Hoey could hold.
Obviously, though to quickly address something, it's likely that a UKIP surge thanks to a Heywood by-election win would result in a number of LibDems holding their seats thanks to UKIP splitting the Conservative and Labour vote.
Probably no election if it gives UKIP a bounce, though this is more a chat WI at the moment.
There have been cases where MPs have been deselected and opted to run again as a member of a different party in that same constituency. The most analogous case is George Gardiner in 1997 in Reigate. The Tories deselected him, he ran for Referendum, and only got 7% of the vote. Hoey would be in a similar situation if she opted to join UKIP and win in a borough that voted almost 79% remain. Vauxhall is just the sort of liberal urban seat Labour have been doing very well in recent years, and with the Lib Dems in coalition, I don't think there are many circumstances where they wouldnt win it in 2015. Hoey would be better off running as an independent.
As a former Lambeth councillor told me over pints, the main difference is that unlike Gardiner, Hoey has a decent personal vote, even if the seat voted heavily to remain, and if Labour made a move against her they would have shot themselves in the foot due to her popularity. Gardiner and Reigate, whilst comparable, breaks down because Gardiner never had the same level of personal support in Reigate as Hoey has in Vauxhall.
Perhaps Hoey has more of a personal vote than Gardiner, but equally, Reigate is probably more hospitable for right wing eurosceptic parties than Vauxhall. There has been a whole bunch of cases of candidates getting deselected and running again anyway without the backing of there former party, but I struggle to think of any case of them actually winning their seat at the next GE. The closest I can think of was Nellist in Coventry, who wasn't too far off. Hoey in Vauxhall would be an odd exception to the rule. Maybe running as an independent with a pact with UKIP would help her somewhat, but even so, I can't see her pulling it off.
The key figure in Vauxhall would be the Conservative candidate; I can see Hoey going Nellist levels, but I can't see Labour overtaking her if they've knifed her. And considering the LibDems vote share collapsing and the Greens not really having much of a shot and only really splitting the left wing vote, it would be the perfect storm for James Bellis to win the seat. Depending on how he approaches it, he has a good chance.
