WI: UKIP takes Heywood and Middleton

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
So back in 2014, there were two By-elections taking place on the 9th of October. Clacton (in Essex), triggered when then sitting MP Douglas Carswell swanned off to UKIP, and Heywood and Middleton (in Manchester), triggered when Jim Dobbin's sadly died whilst on a trip to Poland.

In our world, Clacton was easily won by Carswell, whilst Heywood and Middleton was a close run thing between Labour and UKIP, with Labour's Liz McInnes emerging with a majority of 617 over UKIP's John Bickley following a recount.

But what if, for whatever reason, those votes went another way and Bickley took the seat? What effect would this have had on the major parties and UKIP moving forward into 2015? Could they have held the seat, or would this have ended up like Rochester and Strood?

Assuming that Reckless can win still Rochester and Strood, how would three MP's in Parliment help UKIP in the next election?
 
Hmm Labour might go into panic mode and we might see a proper movement to remove Ed. Yet its much harder to remove Labour leader and there was no obvious successor. A coup was planned around this time but Alan Johnson refused. Johnson is probalby the best tempoary leader for Labour. If he was to be leader for 2015, I'd say Labour would hold its vote up more in Scotland, SNP would still be largest party but it wouldnt be a complete collapse and would do better in places like Nuneaton, so I could see a hung parliament with Labour as the largest party.
 
I believe that there was significant talk of removing Miliband had they lost in Heywood and Middleton, and many in Labour believe that had UKIP been better at allocating their resources, focusing on that seat rather than Clacton, which they were always going to win, then they could have taken it.

There would be a vote of no confidence in him, which I think he would likely stand a chance of winning, if the soft left rallied to his side, and there were enough right wingers who didn't feel the alternative was any better. In that case, a slightly worse than OTL loss is on the cards for 2015.

But had he lost, we now know from his statements on subsequent events that Ed would have gone. Since they would not be long from the GE, I think there would be an attempt to rally around a leader without an election, either Alan Johnson, or Harriet Harman, who might be the better candidate, given that she appealed to the left more, and has a democratic mandate of her own.

Maybe Johnson would be popular enough to put Labour in a position to form a government (though maybe not as the largest party) even if I could still see a little more support going to the Greens in the wake of a coup. Maybe they take Bristol West in this scenario. But his government would be dependent on support from the SNP. I'm less sure about how Harman would do, I think Labour would win more seats, but not enough to be in governing territory. Perhaps she forces a Tory minority, and then resigns to have a proper leadership contest, in which the membership would be even more pissed off at the PLP for forcing a leader on them through a GE, although butterflies keep Corbyn or another leftist off the ballot.

As for John Bickley, I think it likely his time in parliament would be short lived. UKIP did not have a good 2015 campaign, they ended up losing Rochester and Strood comfortably, and I am unsure that a 6 month incumbency would be enough to bridge a majority of over 10% in Heywood and Middleton,as Labour ended up with in OTL.
 
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