Almost impossible, but it was something Wilson was seriously toying as the situation deteriorated. (see my quoted post below.If.....Wilson can keep Callaghan from 'saving the Pound' then the move to the 10 Shilling Note will avoid further worsening inflation.....
A retreat from NI. Seems almost impossible. It's too close to leave to disintegrate, without trouble spilling over to both the rest of Ireland and Britain.
It's also too humiliating.
Even if N.I. is thrown out of the Union, it would still have to be backed up by British power and money.
Northern Ireland
Northern Ireland presents major problems. Fifty years of one-party Tory rule have led to social tensions and lack of opportunities which erupted into major disorders last summer. The Government has helped stabilise the situation and has insisted on reforms being carried out in Northern Ireland based on the practice and principle of nondiscrimination. In particular, it has been agreed that the reform of local government in Ulster shall proceed and that a Central Housing Authority shall be set up. British troops will remain in Northern Ireland so long as they are needed.
The Downing St. Declaration of 19th August, 1969 signed by the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, and the Prime Minister of Northern Ireland, reaffirmed that in all legislation and executive decisions of Government every citizen of Northern Ireland is entitled to the same equality of treatment and freedom from discrimination as obtains in the rest of the United Kingdom, irrespective of political views or religion.
However, could it happen? Well there's the possibility that it happens in 1974/75 with Wilson basically saying "screw it":
However most of the cabinet were against Wilson's idea including most of the major players at the time.We now know from released British Cabinet papers for 1974 that after his return to office in early 1974 Wilson directed that the option of British withdrawal from Northern Ireland be examined. And, although in retrospect the danger of such a withdrawal may have been greatest in 1974, we know from the published diaries of Bernard Donoghue, who was special assistant to Harold Wilson 1974-6, that this option, in conjunction with an attempted negotiated independence for Northern Ireland as a dominion of the Commonwealth, continued to be favoured by Wilson (and it would appear by Roy Jenkins) until it was finally rejected by the Cabinet Committee on Northern Ireland on 11 November 1975.
Bolded the outcomes, none of which are any good. Presuming the first is the Dominion option, the second being to partition off Fermanagh and Tyrone along with other adjustments, and well the third option is pretty much the worst option for absolutely everyone involved.The Department of Foreign Affairs and the Inter-Departmental Unit on Northern Ireland (known as the IDU) to set out alternative scenarios that could arise if the British government were to decide on a withdrawal from Northern Ireland. The three scenarios considered by the IDU following the events of the early months of 1975 were: negotiated independence, negotiated re-partition and the collapse of Northern Ireland into anarchy.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.3318/irisstudinteaffa.2018.0141
Garret FitzGerald. (2018). The 1974–5 Threat of a British Withdrawal from Northern Ireland. Irish Studies in International Affairs.
What if Labour had won the 1970 UK General Election as expected?
Any interest? I wonder how Wilson's re-election would impact the future of the Tory Party - Heath probably steps down in 1970. Does Thatcher come to prominence earlier?
Unlikely - Mrs. Thatcher was at this point only Shadow Education Secretary. The right of the party would most likely coalesce around Enoch Powell (who, through the 50s and 60s had been the standard-bearer of free-market economics in Britain).
Powell was certainly popular amongst the public (polls at the time suggested around 70% agreed with the Rivers of Blood speech) and Tory grassroots, but its difficult to say whether that would translate into the votes of MPs. Bare in mind that Mrs. Thatcher's election was very much a backbench revolt against the one-nation conservatives who had controlled the party since the war. Its uncertain whether enough anti-consensus MPs were present in 1970 to propel Powell to victory.Could Powell plausibly be elected as Tory leader in 1970? If not him - or Thatcher - who might lead the Conservatives? Whitelaw? Keith Joseph?
Powell was certainly popular amongst the public (polls at the time suggested around 70% agreed with the Rivers of Blood speech) and Tory grassroots, but its difficult to say whether that would translate into the votes of MPs. Bare in mind that Mrs. Thatcher's election was very much a backbench revolt against the one-nation conservatives who had controlled the party since the war. Its uncertain whether enough anti-consensus MPs were present in 1970 to propel Powell to victory.
Probably Powell's best shot at the leadership would have been for a moderate to win in 1970, lose to Labour at the next election and then resign, at which point the parliamentary party would be in a similar shape to how it was in 1975 IOTL, allowing Powell to emerge victorious.
Regarding the other contenders for the leadership, Iain Macleod would probably be the 'one-nation' candidate, although his death only a month after the 1970 GE means that he might not even see the end of the leadership election. Other candidates include Reginald Maudling (the runner-up to Heath in 1965), Quintin Hogg (who had previously sought the leadership in 1964) and (as you've mentioned) Willie Whitelaw and Keith Joseph.