Madeleine Birchfield
Banned
What happens if the Irish Home Rule Bill fails to pass the House of Lords in July 1914 and Asquith calls a general election?
WI: UK general election in July 1914
- Thread starter Madeleine Birchfield
- Start date
Assuming no butterflies, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and the outbreak of war on the continent, in the middle of an election campaign, will be very interesting...
surely he would invoke the 1911 parliament act wouldn't he? rather than calling an election.
I believe that was his intention. Process might even have been underway.
Triggering the "Loyalist" unrest and the Curragh "Mutiny".
Pretty much that.
Parliament Act gets used, Lord's are over-ruled. Tensions in Ireland rack all the way up to eleven until events on the Continent overshadow things.
Honestly the outcome would be pretty much the same as OTL.
I’m not quite as convinced. If Ireland had spilled over into civil unrest and sections of the army had mutinied over HR would Britain really have intervened over Belgium? I don’t think so.
That means no Ultimatum on Belgium neutrality, no miracle on the Marne, etc. Germany wins by late 1915 at the latest.
I think Asquith would’ve emvoked the 1911 Act. However supposing a GE I expect the liberals to lose more ground. Then if we have a Tory Gov would they want to get involved in the war if it had already started and the casualties?
I think you are underestimating just how useful the breakout in hostilities on the Continent served as a "release valve" for tensions in Ireland. Once it becomes clear that Britain has access to an "out" in the form of getting involved in the war in Europe (It will be over by Christmas after all) London and the various political groups that don't want violence can just fudge the details until they can defang the issue by having the Unionists turn out as a show of Loyalty, and the Nationalists turn out to guarantee HR after the war, with the hopes that by sticking the Paddies together fighting the Hun, it will make it so that they will all settle down when this is all over.
We know that won't work by the end of it all, but they don't.
Now where this could cause some big butterflies as far as Ireland is concerned would be around the issue of the Easter Rising, as that would have given enough time for things to really change in meaningful ways. More likely that the Irish Volunteers who didn't answer Redmond's call to go fight refuse to even attempt to take part alongside the IRB/ICA elements as they have a 100% iron clad guarantee of Home Rule once this thing is done, as opposed to the OTL "Oh we super-duper promise you'll get it" that we had.
I tend to agree, you don't get involved in foreign adventures when your house is on fire. (Unless a foreign power is involved in your domestic problems)
Well, it could be argued, that Germany is involved in those domestic problems as they are the ones selling arms to the Irish.
German intelligence well knew what was going on but they used a Hamburg based arms dealer as a cut-out. A Jew, he ended up committing suicide in 1938 rather than being sent to a concentration camp.
I have it in a book at home about Colonel Fred Crawford (who organised the Larne effort). I'm away for the weekend so can't get at it until Monday but I will have a look on the internet now
Well if you find it, please PM me it.
This is the sort of stuff I live for in alt-history.
As the late Ronan Fanning wrote: "the Great War then enabled Asquith to do what he had always wanted to do about Ireland: nothing."
While there were certainly exceptions most Liberal MPs (and Cabinet members for that matter) were not emotionally committed to Ireland and I think if it came to it Asquith would have offered further concessions to the Unionists, on the basis that Redmond had no choice but to back the Liberals.
While there were certainly exceptions most Liberal MPs (and Cabinet members for that matter) were not emotionally committed to Ireland and I think if it came to it Asquith would have offered further concessions to the Unionists, on the basis that Redmond had no choice but to back the Liberals.