WI: UK Doesn't Join EEC--Federalized EU?

[e of pi]

So as the latest neck-and-neck Brexit polls show, Britain's probably the most Euroskeptical of the major economies that were a part of the EEC and are now in the EU. They've never been as interested as the French or the Germans in "the European project", they're a large part of why nations can be in but can be excepted from the Euro, and so on. There's the old truism that the EU has a "democracy deficit" with too much power in the hands of Brussels bureaucrats who are only tenuously and indirectly connected to the people they regulate, at best, and that it's a bit too loose to be a real government at that. However, when one of three or four largest economies in the project keeps putting the brakes on, it's easy to see why the bureaucracy grows to fill the gaps.

So...what might an EEC/EU look like if Britain had never been In? Might it be possible to see a more federalized, better organized EEC/European Union earlier, would things still be a muddle, or would it be worse? What might the growth and development of a more federal Europe look like without Britain?

 

[pompejus]

People here generaly underestimate the europskepisism in other countries besides the EU. France is also pretty euroskepic. Don't forget they voted against the European constitution. The same is true for the Netherlands. I don't think there is any support for federalisation within the EU, besides a small minority. The UK isn't and has never been the only thing stopping a federalised EU. Other countries aren't interested in it either.

 

[rfmcdonald]

It's possible, certainly. A Europe of the Six would be a smaller but also a more homogeneous Europe, one that would be a better test-bed for tighter integration including a monetary union.

The problem comes with actually getting the inspiration for this federalization active. The United Kingdom, for instance, played a critical role in the creation of the Single Market. What would have happened in a Kleineuropa scenario?

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

The thing is that not that many countries formed out of unions. In contrast, many countries were centralized and became subsequently federalized.

To get a federalized union, it has to be federalized from the start, or it will be very hard to have it unite.

 

[kichinichini]

My guess is yes, it would be more federalized but I don't have much to add beyond that. Interested in this topic though.

 

[Devvy]

The UK is perhaps the most vocally eurosceptic country, but definitely isn't the only country with a large reserve of it. No UK joining probably means no Nordic countries joining, who will probably form their own Nordic Community of some sort. However, without the richer neighbours from the north joining, then there is probably less appetite to accept in poorer eastern neighbours; Some of the Baltics might go in to the Nordic group, but people like Lithuania, Poland, Czech, Slovakia, Austria, Hungary, Slovenia, maybe Croatia, would end up in the EU maybe a little later then OTL. Perhaps not Malta and Cyprus either, and I definitely can't see Romania or Bulgaria joining - the focus will be on supranational institution building, rather then focussing on expanding the single market. So you get a much more concentrated EU focussed solely on Continental Europe and as a more cohesive territorial lump.

With no UK/Nordics (and maybe no Malta/Cyprus); I guess you'd see slightly more supranational/federalised model; concepts like the Eurozone wouldn't exist; you'd just have the European Union with the Euro currency; the EU/Eurozone would be the same thing, and governance would be better integrated in to the EU institutions. Perhaps same for the Schengen Area. The EU would culturally be more of a central EU group of countries without the northern neighbours and "Anglo-Saxon" model. More integrated banking facilities - perhaps easy cross border banking, probably some form of European business tax to simplify EU-wide businesses and EU VAT collection which might replace the EU contributions as the EU's income.

I can't see the EU replacing NATO, but given that France was outside the integrated NATO command until 2000-and-something, I could see the EU defensive alliance and Battlegroups taking a slightly higher position

 

[Pesterfield]

Would the UK just stay out, or actively try to sabotage European unity?

 

[rfmcdonald]

You would have to explain why the UK was no longer interested in joining the EEC. EFTA was initially imagined as the alternative for countries which did not want to join the ever closer union centered in Brussels, the Outer Seven versus the Inner Six. Britain ended up changing its mind and applied for EEC membership to be part of the central group, bringing Ireland and Denmark and (potentially) Norway along with it.

What changes? Why do the Outer Seven remain happy with being outer?