WI: UK does not withdraw from Suez

[Minchandre]

In 1954, the United Kingdom withdrew its 80,000 strong garrison from the Suez Canal in an attempt at rapproachment with Cairo (this effort would ultimately fail).

2 short years later, Egypt seized and nationalized the canal (previously held by a joint Anglo-French corporation), in what was pretty much the culmination of a few years' turn towards the USSR. The Suez War followed, Egypt got curbstomped, and the US forced a return to status quo ante bellum. The rest is history.

What if, however, the UK had taken a harder line with Egypt, refusing to remove their garrison from the site? A lot of the results will, I assume, be pretty similar to the previously done "US lets UK, France, and Israel keep Suez War winnings", but not everything (critically, Egypt maintains control of Gaza in this scenario...at least for now).

 

[Wolfpaw]

Well, if the British never withdrew their garrison, there never would be a Suez War, would there?

Secondly, they British were obligated by treaty to withdraw the garrison by (IIRC) 1955, they just got a head start on it. Sometime during 1956, I believe, the Canal was going to be transferred to Egyptian control.

Anyways, Nasser just decided to nationalize the Canal as a propaganda coup and to give the West a giant middle finger for pulling their funding from the Aswan Dam and for Britain's creation of the Baghdad Pact. If he'd had just waited for the treaty to take effect, the whole thing could have been avoided.

Not that the British, French, or Israelis reacted properly when Nasser pulled his little stunt, but the fellow did start it.

Anyways, no British troop removal in '54 and '55, no Suez Crisis. Nasser waits it out and gets the Canal anyways. Though you may see more deaths due to anti-British rioting or heavy-handed measures on the party of the British to "preserve order" or whatever they decide to call provoking/antagonizing locals.

 

[Minchandre]

Well, if the British never withdrew their garrison, there never would be a Suez War, would there?

...That was the point of the post?

Secondly, they British were obligated by treaty to withdraw the garrison by (IIRC) 1955, they just got a head start on it. Sometime during 1956, I believe, the Canal was going to be transferred to Egyptian control.

Actually, no. The Anglo-Egyptian agreement called for UK withdrawl from all of Egypt except the Canal, and while the treaty was to last until 1956 (at which time Britain would cease arming and training the Egyptian army), British control of the canal was to last "Until such time as both countries agreed that the Egyptian Army was in a position to ensure by its own resources the liberty and entire security of navigation of the Canal". This last was supposed to be decided mutually by Egypt and the UK, or sent to the League of Nations (or equivalent body) in case an amicable consensus could not be reached.

 

[Arachnid]

At the end of the day the Empire east of Suez was doomed. As other threads have pointed out a few butterflies with regards to Suez can keep it in British hands but after 1960's there isn't going to be anything East of Suez, at that point getting rid of a costly drain is inevitable.

 

[SunilTanna]

Secondly, they British were obligated by treaty to withdraw the garrison by (IIRC) 1955, they just got a head start on it. Sometime during 1956, I believe, the Canal was going to be transferred to Egyptian control.

The British had been saying "we're going to withdraw Egypt real soon", ever since they first arrived in the country. So finding a way to stay in the short-term doesn't seem impossible.

However, by the 50s, I think Britain no longer really had the will to stay in places such as this where they were not wanted - so it's only a matter of time.

 

[tantalus1970a]

The British had been saying "we're going to withdraw Egypt real soon", ever since they first arrived in the country. So finding a way to stay in the short-term doesn't seem impossible.

However, by the 50s, I think Britain no longer really had the will to stay in places such as this where they were not wanted - so it's only a matter of time.

The British also didn't have the money. Suez wasn't just a garrison, it was the largest military base in the world. It must have cost a fortune to run it.